Mad Hedge


October 11, 2019

Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today

(and what to do about them)

A Second Day of Rally on Trade Hopes,

as the meeting between Trump and Vice Premier Liu is moved to the White House. This might be the last chance to avoid a 2020 recession. It could lead to a ferocious Monday morning opening, one way or the other. Overnight Dow futures are up 300 points driven mostly by short covering. I’m selling into the rally.

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Loss of SALT Deductions Cost You $1 Trillion,

or about 4% per home according to an analysis by Standard & Poor’s. Quite simply, losing the ability to deduct state and local tax deductions creates a higher after-tax cost of carry that reduces your asset value. If you bought a home in 2017, you lost half of your equity almost immediately. The east and west coasts were especially hard hit.

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Inflation was Zero in September,

with the Consumer Price Index up 1.8% YOY. Slowing economy due to the trade war gets the blame but I think that accelerating technology gets the bigger blame.

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Iran Tanker Attack Sends Oil Soaring,

taking west Texas futures up to $54.31 a barrel. The missile assault in the Red Sea is of unknown origin. I’m keeping my oil long and thanking my lucky stars. This is all in the face of a global oil glut.

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Weekly Jobless Claims Drop 10,000

to 210,000 in another surprising run at the 50-year low. It’s the only positive data point out there.

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Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and the Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


(USO), (AMZN), (MCD), (WMT), (TGT)



Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.