Hot Tips Archives

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 31, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 31, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) “PATIENCE” is still the order of the day at the Federal Reserve, with its Open Market Committee Meeting ordering no interest rate rise. It was a trifecta for the doves. The free pass for stocks continues. That’s why I covered all my shorts starting from last week. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. Click here.

2) Case Shiller Home Price Index Drops Again, in November, from 5.3% to 5.2% YOY. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Seattle are still showing the largest gains. It looks like your home-flipping days are over. Click here.

3) Stocks Pop to a 16X Multiple, on a Dow up 500-point day. Given that earnings growth for 2019 is coming down to a 0%-5% range, the market looks a little bit rich to me. Don’t try to pick up too many pennies in front of the steamroller. Click here.

4) Chicago PMI Hits a Two-Year low plunging from 61.40 to 56.7. Why is the bond market saying we are going into recession and the stock market say we aren’t? Warning: the bond market is always right. Click here.

5) Tesla Reports Another Profit, for the second consecutive quarter and the company is about to reach escape velocity. Stocks dive $10. Model 3 production in 2019 to reach 75% of the total output and we can expect a new pickup truck. A second factory in Shanghai will take the “3” to over a half million units a year. That $35,000 Tesla is just over the horizon. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET GETS A FREE PASS FROM THE FED),

(SPY), ($INDU), (TLT), (GLD), (FXE), (UUP),

(APPLE SEIZES VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT),

(AAPL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 30, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 30, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Apple Slightly Beats Expectations, with revenues at $84.31 billion versus $83.97 billion expected, and earnings at $4.18 per share versus $4.17 expected. Guidance going forward is very cautious of a slowing China. The stock was up twelve bucks at the peak. Good thing I saw the ambush coming and covered my short two days ago. A penny beat is the most managed earnings I have ever seen. To warn about earnings and then surprise to the upside is classic Tim Cook. Click here.

2) Consumer Confidence Falls Off a Cliff, to an 18-month low, a key index dropping from 126.6 in December to 120.2 in January. Getting the bill from you maxed out credit cards last month didn’t help. Nor did the government shutdown and the stock market crash. Click here.

3) Gold Hits an 8 Month High, as nervous investors hoover up a downside hedge. Russian and Chinese central bank buying helps too. Click here.

4) AMD Soars 10% on its Earnings Beat, and the outlook is rosy, says the CEO Lisa Su. Apparently, not all chip stocks are alike. Click here.

5) December Pending Home Sales Crater, down 2.2% in December and 9.8% YOY. Despite the dramatically lower interest rates buyers fled the crashing stock market. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),

(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR),

(WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),

(GLD), (GDX), (ABX),

(IS THE BOTTOM IN FOR FACEBOOK?),

(FB)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 29, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 29, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) NVIDIA guides Down and Semis Get Crushed, down 10% across the board. Excess inventory, falling prices, and the demise of crypto get the blame. Use this dip to start buying the most cyclical industry in the market.

2) How’s the Economy Doing?Beats me! It could be weeks before the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis returns to its regular schedule of data releases. Stock traders will just have to guess unto then. Click here.

3) Bitcoin Hits a New One Year Low, at $3,400. Some $400 billion has gone to money Heaven since 2017. Only $113 billion in market capitalization remains. I told you it was a Ponzi scheme. Click here.

4) All Eyes Are on Apple Today, which reports earnings after the close. Tim Cook already braced investors for a disappointment weeks ago. The big question is how fast non-iPhone earnings will grow which were up 19% last year. Click here.

5) US $1.5 trillion Tax Cut Has No Impact on Capital Spending Plans, says the nonpartisan congressional budget office. Why waste money on expensive factories when you can buy your own stock and boost management compensation? Told you so. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(RISK CONTROL FOR DUMMIES),

(SPY), (AMZN), (TLT), (CRM), (VXX)

(WHAT'S BEHIND THE NVIDIA MELTDOWN),

(QRVO), (MU), (SWKS), (NVDA), (AMD), (INTC), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (FB)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 28, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Shutdown is Over, But How Much Did it Cost Us?Standard & Poor’s says $6 billion but the restart costs will be greater. Click here.

2) Has the Bull Market for Emerging Markets Already Started? A weak dollar and falling dollar is all you need. That’s why securities you can’t pronounce have been on a tear so far in 2019. Buy (EEM) dip for the next six months. Click here.

3) Stocks Get Crushed on Slowing Global Economy, down 350 on terrible Caterpillar (CAT) numbers, a slowing global economy, and collapsing business confidence. We are way overdue for a sharp correction. Keeping my short in Apple (AAPL), already sold all my longs. Click here.

4) Brazilian Iron Ore Producer Vale Kills 300 in Brazil, when a tailings dam failed, delivering a body blow to a major commodity play. Stocks down nearly 20%. This is what deregulation gets you on a bad day. Your imported steel just got more expensive. Click here.

5) Meet the House of the Year, the most beautiful home published by the Wall Street Journal in 2018. This waterfront masterpiece on the Hawaiian island of Kauai can be yours for only $16 million, and I bet they’ll accept a lower offer. Click here.

Published today in the Mad HedgeGlobal Trading Dispatchand Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or IT’S FINALLY OVER)

(SPY), (TLT), (FXE), (MSFT), (AAPL),

(PG), (F), (LRCX), (AMD), (XLNX)

(BUY DIPS IN SEMIS, NOT TOPS),

(XLNX), (LRCX), (AMD), (TXN), (NVDA), (INTC), (SOXX), (SMH), (MU), (QQQ)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 25, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Semis Have Bottomed in the Wake of Spectacular Earnings Reports from (LRCX), (AMD), and (XLNX). The great artificial intelligence play is back in action after a severe spanking. I never had any doubt they would come back. Now for an entry point. Click here.

2) “Let Them Eat Cake,” said Commerce Secretary Wilber Ross in telling starving federal employees to borrow against their future paychecks. This kind of detachment from the fate of the working man is common among the many billionaires I have known. Maybe Wilber should read his French history and find out what happened to the last leader who took this attitude? Click here.

3) The US and China are “Miles and Miles” from a Trade Deal, was the other great insight we obtained from Wilber Ross. Just what the stock market didn’t want to hear. That’s what happens when you negotiate with a country that doesn’t have real elections or opinion polls. Click here.

4) Farmers are Leaving Crops to Rot in the Field, as the trade war with China destroys prices and the Mexicans needed to harvest them are trapped at the border. There’s got to be an easier way to earn a living. Avoid the ags and all ag plays. Click here.

5) Check Out Boeing’s New Flying Car. Yes, I know you’re thinking “Pull the other one.” But it really does exist. My question is how many new pilots can we fit in the air when the air traffic controllers are NOT getting paid? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(JANUARY 9 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(TSLA), (EDIT), (NTLA), (CRSP), (SJB), (TLT), (FXB), (GLD),

(THE PRICE OF STARDOM AT DAVOS)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 24, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 24, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1)The ECB’s Draghi Says No Euro Rate Rises Until 2020, and the US bond market took off like a rocket. Another point or two and we’ll be in short selling territory again. Don’t count on Europe to pull us out of the next recession. Click here.

2) The Airline Industry Will Cease to Function, in a few weeks if the government shutdown doesn’t end. It will literally run out of federally inspected parts, and planes. Never mind the TSA. Click here.

3) Procter & Gamble Beats, with an upside earnings surprise. It must be all those people buying soap to wash their hands of our political system. Click here.

4) But Ford Disappoints, dragged down by weak foreign earnings. The last to get into electric cars is really starting to suffer. The last of the buggy whip makers is in a swan dive. Click here.

5) Hedge Fund Titan Pays $238 million for a New York Condo. Who says home prices are going down? Situated on the 79^th floor at 220 Central Park South, Citadel’s Ken Griffin bought the most expensive US residence ever sold. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(FROM THE FRONT LINES OF THE TRADE WAR),

(AAPL), (AVGO), (QCOM), (TLT),

(HOW THE MAD HEDGE MARKET TIMING ALGORITHM TRIPLED MY PERFORMANCE),

(ACTIVISTS LAY IN ON EBAY),
(EBAY), (AMZN), (PYPL), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 23, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 23, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Activist Investor Takes a Run at eBay, causing the shares to pop 4%. Elliot Management wants them to dump Stub Hub and its classified ads business. Another one of the Mad Hedge favorite tech stocks gets its 15 minutes of fame. Click here.

2) Existing Home Sales Down a Disastrous 6.4%, in December and 10% YOY, the worst read since 2012. The government shutdown is making closing impossible. Click here.

3) The Worst Hit States from the Government Shutdown are All Red, with Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Wyoming, Montana, Alabama, and Alaska taking the lead. Don’t expect the Democrats to be in a hurry to cave. This will last longer than anyone expects. Click here.

4) No, There’s No Progress on the Trade War….Yes, There Is. That explains yesterday’s nearly 500-point plunge in the Dow followed by a brief 150-point rally when White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the aforementioned was not true. Do you think the stock market is sensitive to trade? Click here.

5) IBM Lights the Market on Fire. The world may be going to hell in a handbasket but the earnings are still coming through. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS), (TLT)

(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN’T WORK)

(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
(WHY TECH IS FLEEING SILICON VALLEY),

(AAPL), (CRM), (MSFT), (FB), (AMZN), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 22, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Tesla Sprints for Profits. It cut its labor force by 7%, canned its $1,000 customer introduction bonus, and raised the price of supercharging in California from 26 to 30 cents per kWh. It’s about cutting prices so we can ALL afford the Tesla 3. Buy the next dip, the breakout is coming. (TSLA). Click here.

2) Slowing China is Freaking Out Investors Everywhere. Even if a trade deal is cut tomorrow, it may not be enough to pull the economy out of a downward spiral. Look out below! A 6.6% growth rate for 2018 is the slowest in 30 years. Click here.

3) Keep Buying Those Gold Dips. A “golden cross” is setting up on the charts and technical analysts are going gaga on the prospects for the barbarous relic. Forget about inflation. It’s a flight to safety that is driving traders into the yellow metal. (GLD). Click here.

4) The Oscar Nominations Are Out Today, for the February 24 show. Watch the shares of big producers Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). Click here.

5) The IRS Released Rules on Who Gets the New Tax Break, on Friday picking business winners and losers. Will you get the new 20% deduction? If you’re a doctor, lawyer, or accountant, you’re screwed. Why are these things always announced on Fridays? Do they think we won’t notice? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or WHY I LOVE THE STOCK MARKET),

(SPY), (TLT), (MSFT), (CRM), (AMZN), (FXE)

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD),

(AAPL)

(HOW TO PLAY TECHNOLOGY STOCKS IN 2019),

(NFLX), (AAPL), (TSLA), (STT), (BLK)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 17, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The December Fed Beige Book Comes in Moderate. “Trade war” is mentioned 20 times, but “government shutdown comes out only once. Inflation is low but companies can’t pass price increases on to consumers. Labor shortages are showing up everywhere but with few wage increases. The auto industry is flatlining. Click here.

2) Stocks are Breaking Out of Correction Territory, led by technology stocks. Are they discounting the end of the government shutdown, the resolution of the trade war with China, or both?

3) Snapchat CEO Resigns, after less than a year on the job, prompting fears about the digital imaging company’s survival. Our favorite technology short is now down 95% from the peak. Avoid (SNAP) like the plague. Click here.

4) McDonald’s Loses the “Big Mac” Trademark in Ireland. It turns out that local burger chain Supermac thought of it first. (MCD) lost a similar case in Scotland over “McDonald’s” name decades ago and had to pay $10 million. Click here.

5) Apple Cutting Back on Hiring. Fewer iPhone sales means fewer people to make them. I think I’ll keep my apple short. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DOW?)

($INDU), (EK), (S), (BS), (CVX), (DD), (MMM),

(FBHS), (MGDDY), (FL), (GE), (TSLA), (GM)

(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

(WHY FINTECH IS EATING THE BANKS’ LUNCH),

(WFC), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (GS), (XLF), (PYPL), (SQ), (SPOT), (FINX), (INTU)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 16, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 16, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Brexit Goes Down in Flames, with a crushing 432 to 202 loss, the worst in 100 years. The opposition has tabled a vote of no confidence, so a general election is imminent. Next to come is a new vote on Brexit itself which will go down in flames. Buy the British pound (FXB). Click here.

2) What Does the End of Brexit Mean for the Global Economy? It strengthens Europe, prevents Italy, Greece, Portugal, and France from leaving the European Community, preserves NATO, and stops the Russian hordes from overrunning Western Europe. Croissants will be cheaper in London too. That’s all.

3) JP Morgan Disappoints, But the Stock Rallies Anyway. Maybe at a discount to book value, this sector really is sold out. Buy (JPM), the class act in American banking. Click here.

4) Who Sold 19,000 Naked (SPY) Puts Yesterday, taking in $176 million in premium income. That’s what the options market would love to know. It sounds gutsy, but the $2,100 strike 20% out-of-the-money would have been hit only four times in the last 100 years. Warren Buffet?

5) The Chinese Government Warns Citizens Not to Visit the US, or its allies, citing the danger of arrest. It seems the neighborhood is going downhill. Does this mean the trade talks are getting better….or worse? Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(HAVE BONDS PEAKED?)

(TLT), (TBT),

(IS USA, INC. A SHORT?)

(3D PRINTING GETS A SECOND WIND),

(SSYS), (ETSY), (MSFT), (BA), (NFLX), (GE), (LMT)