and the market hasn't fully priced it yet. Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement Thursday vowing to defend Iran's nuclear and missile technologies "like their maritime, land, and air borders" — and warned that foreigners have no place in the Persian Gulf "except at the bottom of its waters." Trump's demand for full denuclearization is non-negotiable. Iran's position is equally non-negotiable. Brent hit $126 on Thursday before pulling back. Peace by June 1 is now a fantasy.

with $111.2 billion in revenue — up 17% — and iPhone revenue hitting $57 billion, up 22% for the second consecutive quarter. Cook called it the best March quarter in the company's history. Incoming CEO John Ternus made his first public comments, calling this "the most exciting time in my 25-year career at Apple to be building products and services." Stock is up 4%. I have been following Apple since Steve Jobs, and I go way back. The transition is smoother than the market feared. Buy (AAPL) on dips.

with Q1 revenue of $19.8 billion — up 56% — crushing the $17.6 billion estimate. Mounjaro sales hit $8.66 billion, up 125%. Zepbound US revenue rose 80% to $4.16 billion. EPS came in at $8.55 against a $7.06 estimate, a 21% beat. The company raised full-year revenue guidance by $2 billion to $82–85 billion. I have been watching drug companies since the Salk vaccine. This is what a generational pharmaceutical shift looks like in the numbers.

and this is what the back half of 2026 is going to look like. Exxon beat on revenue at $85.14 billion versus an $82.18 billion estimate, and delivered a one-year total shareholder return of 42%. Chevron's adjusted EPS of $1.41 was its biggest beat since October 2020 against a 95-cent estimate. Profits were down year-over-year — that's the Q1 average oil price story, not the forward story. With Brent above $100 and the Hormuz closed, Q2 and Q3 are a completely different conversation. I have been in this oil trade since February. Good thing I never left. Buy (XOM) and (CVX) on dips.

with the index up over 9% for the month and closing above 7,200 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq surged 15%. April rewarded the brave. But today is May 1, and I have been trading this market for 50 years. "Sell in May and go away" is not just a bumper sticker — it is the historically worst six months of the year. The war is unresolved. The Fed is on hold. Kevin Warsh takes the chair in two weeks with three hawkish dissenters already on the board. Enjoy the record. Then get defensive.