Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 17, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The December Fed Beige Book Comes in Moderate. “Trade war” is mentioned 20 times, but “government shutdown comes out only once. Inflation is low but companies can’t pass price increases on to consumers. Labor shortages are showing up everywhere but with few wage increases. The auto industry is flatlining. Click here.

2) Stocks are Breaking Out of Correction Territory, led by technology stocks. Are they discounting the end of the government shutdown, the resolution of the trade war with China, or both?

3) Snapchat CEO Resigns, after less than a year on the job, prompting fears about the digital imaging company’s survival. Our favorite technology short is now down 95% from the peak. Avoid (SNAP) like the plague. Click here.

4) McDonald’s Loses the “Big Mac” Trademark in Ireland. It turns out that local burger chain Supermac thought of it first. (MCD) lost a similar case in Scotland over “McDonald’s” name decades ago and had to pay $10 million. Click here.

5) Apple Cutting Back on Hiring. Fewer iPhone sales means fewer people to make them. I think I’ll keep my apple short. Click here.

 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DOW?)

($INDU), (EK), (S), (BS), (CVX), (DD), (MMM),

(FBHS), (MGDDY), (FL), (GE), (TSLA), (GM)

(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

(WHY FINTECH IS EATING THE BANKS’ LUNCH),

(WFC), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (GS), (XLF), (PYPL), (SQ), (SPOT), (FINX), (INTU)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 16, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 16, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Brexit Goes Down in Flames, with a crushing 432 to 202 loss, the worst in 100 years. The opposition has tabled a vote of no confidence, so a general election is imminent. Next to come is a new vote on Brexit itself which will go down in flames. Buy the British pound (FXB). Click here.

2) What Does the End of Brexit Mean for the Global Economy? It strengthens Europe, prevents Italy, Greece, Portugal, and France from leaving the European Community, preserves NATO, and stops the Russian hordes from overrunning Western Europe. Croissants will be cheaper in London too. That’s all.

3) JP Morgan Disappoints, But the Stock Rallies Anyway. Maybe at a discount to book value, this sector really is sold out. Buy (JPM), the class act in American banking. Click here.

4) Who Sold 19,000 Naked (SPY) Puts Yesterday, taking in $176 million in premium income. That’s what the options market would love to know. It sounds gutsy, but the $2,100 strike 20% out-of-the-money would have been hit only four times in the last 100 years. Warren Buffet?

5) The Chinese Government Warns Citizens Not to Visit the US, or its allies, citing the danger of arrest. It seems the neighborhood is going downhill. Does this mean the trade talks are getting better….or worse? Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(HAVE BONDS PEAKED?)

(TLT), (TBT),

(IS USA, INC. A SHORT?)

(3D PRINTING GETS A SECOND WIND),

(SSYS), (ETSY), (MSFT), (BA), (NFLX), (GE), (LMT)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 15, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Apple’s Asian Suppliers Report Terrible Numbers. iPhone prices in China are cut. It looks like I’ll be able to keep my short position into expiration after all. Click here.

2) Citigroup Stock Rallies off of Decent Earnings. That’s more important for the main market than it is for (C). Last quarter, the stock tanked on good earnings. But I won’t touch this buggy whip sector anyway. Buy (EBAY) and (SQ) instead. Click here.

3) PG&E Goes Bankrupt, in order to keep the lights on in the face of $30 billion in wildfire liabilities. It’s the second time in 20 years. Thank goodness for my solar panels. Power prices are about to spike up big time. Click here.

4) Don’t Get Too Bullish Now. A ton of bad economic news will hit the market in February. China slowdown, European crash, Brexit, what’s not to hate? Click here.

5) Netflix Raises Prices and the Stock Soars. Their monthly take is jumping by 13%-18%. (NFLX) shares are now up by 50% since the Christmas Eve Massacre. The Walking Dead and House of Cards just got more expensive. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


SPECIAL ARMAGEDDON ISSUE

(HERE’S THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO),

($INDU), (SPY), (SDS), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (FXY),

(UUP), (DDP), (USO), (SCO), (GLD), (DGZ), (ITB)

(THE TECH DARLING OF 2019),

(TWLO), (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 14, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 14, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) December New Home Starts Fall 19%, and 40% in North California and 49% in Southern California. Rising interest rates and the stock market crash are to blame. But this housing recession is already in the price of the stocks. Click here.

2) Banks are Reporting Earnings This Week. Will the new generation of buggy whip makers even exist in a year? Or will FinTech companies like Square (SQ) and eBay (EBAY) eat their lunch? Look for banks to disappointment even low expectations. Click here.

3) This is the Week When Economic Data Ceases to Exist, unless it comes from private sources. Entering the fourth week of the government shutdown, we are all now flying blind.

4) US Core Inflation is Up Only 2.2% YOY, after a miniscule 0.2% gain in December. Don’t count on that pay rise anytime soon. All your company’s money is going to share buybacks instead. Click here.

5) Newmont Mining Buys Goldcorp for $10 Billion to create the world’s largest gold miner.  Another classic sign of a long-term bottom for the barbarous relic is when the miners start taking over each other. Click here.

 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or IS THE BULL MARKET BACK?),

(SPY), (TLT), (MSFT), (AMZN), (CRM), (AAPL), (FXE),

(TESTIMONIAL)
(THE TECH DARLING OF 2019),

(TWLO), (MSFT)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 11, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 11, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Government Shutdown Hits 3 Weeks. If it continues, you can kiss this market rally goodbye. We are losing 5-10 basis point of GDP growth per day, and JP Morgan has already cut Q1 growth by 25 basis points. Click here.

2) 2019 Earnings Forecasts Just Got Chopped, from 10% growth to 6%. Will they get cut more? Your retirement portfolio cares. Click here.

3) Junk-Bond Issuance Returns, after a 40-day absence. It had shut down during the stock market crash. Maybe the bull market really is resuming again? Click here.

4) Home Mortgage Rates Hit a 9-Month Low, with the conventional 30-year fixed rate loan now wholesaling at 4.4%. Will it be enough to reignite the real estate market? Buy Lennar (LEN). Click here.

5) Will China’s Top Trade Negotiator Visit the US This Month? It could be worth another 1,000 points in the Dow. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY THE MARKET CRASHED IN DECEMBER),

(SPY), ($INDU), (VIX)

(THE GOVERNMENT’S WAR ON MONEY),

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 10, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 10, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Macy's Disappoints, Crushing all of Retail With It, and taking down an overbought main market as well. It highlights an accelerating shift from brick and mortar to online which grew 20% YOY. Will Amazon sponsor those wonderful parades? Click here.

2) December Fed Minutes Come Out Mixed. The Fed has both hawks and doves. Who knew? Rate rises are still in the cards. Bad news, bond market.

3) The US May Lose Its Triple “A” Rating, thanks to the government shutdown according to Fitch, one of the oldest bond rating agencies. I knew we were on the way to becoming a banana republic. Keep your bond shorts (TLT). We’re raking it in. Click here.

4) Jeff Bezos to Get Divorced. Yikes! His wife Mackenzie is one of the first three Amazon employees and spent long nights shipping the early book sales. She is about to become the world’s wealthiest woman, worth $65 billion. Keep your stock for a run to $2,000. Hmmm, I’m twice widowed. The age is right…. Click here.

5) Lennar (LEN) is Seeing an Uptick in New Homes Sales, thanks to a 30-year mortgage rate that has plunged 50 basis points. It brings affordability within reach to a few million Millennials. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(JANUARY 9 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(SPY), (UUP), (FXE), (FXY), (FXA), (AAPL), (GLD), (SLV), (FCX), (SOYB), (USO), (MU), (NVDA), (AMD), (TLT), (TBT), (BIIB), (TSLA)

(TESTIMONIAL)

(HERE’S THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE FOR APPLE),

(AAPL), (SWKS), (AMZN), (TSLA)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 9, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 9, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Is the Fed a New Dove or is it Just Pretending? We’ll find out at 2:00 PM EST when the December meeting minutes are released. It could spell the top of this move up. Click here.  

2) The World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast, from 3.0% to 2.9%. Falling international trade, trade wars, and global instability are to blame. But is this a lagging indicator? Click here.  

3) Goldman Sachs Says Interest Rates Have Peaked in This Cycle, at 3.25% in the ten-year US Treasury bond. Maybe. But if they really knew what bonds were going to do, they would be making more money. If 3.25% was the peak, interest rates will go negative in the next recession. Sell Goldman on the next rally and get ready to refi that house. (GS). Click here.  

4) Equities are Matching Oil One to One on the Upside. So, better watch oil closely these days if you own equities. Click here.  

5) Hopes Continue of China Trade Talks. Unfortunately, “Hope” is not a viable trading strategy. Click here.  

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

2019 Annual Asset Class Review

A Global Vision

(TOP 8 TECH TRENDS OF 2018),

(GOOGL), (FB), (WMT), (SQ), (AMZN), (ROKU), (KR), (FDX), (UPS), (CRM), (TWLO), (ADBE), (PYPL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 8, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Don’t Miss the Mad Hedge 2019 All Asset Class Review on Wednesday, at 12:00 PM EST. Click here.

2) China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements, injecting $200 billion into the economy. The last time they did this we saw a monster rally in stocks. It turns out that the Middle Kingdom has a far healthier balance sheet than the US. Click here.

3) Saudi Arabia Chops Oil Production, sending prices soaring. It not too late to get into what could be a 40% bottom to top rally (USO). Click here.

4) Bristol Meyers (BMY) Buys Celgene (CELG), sparking what could be the big sector trend of 2019. It’s still early days for what will be the best performing sector of 2019. Click here.

5) “Toxic” is named the Word of the Year, by the Oxford English Dictionary. Gee, I wonder where they got that one. It far overshadows 2017’s pick “youthquake.” Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(DON’T MISS THE JANUARY 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),

(TESTIMONIAL),

(TESLA TALES), (TSLA),

(WHY I SOLD SHORT APPLE),

(AAPL), (FB), (SNAP), (SQ), (AMZN), (BB), (NOK)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 7, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

SPECIAL “2019 SURPRISES” ISSUE

1) The Fed Doesn’t Raise Interest Rates in 2019. Otherwise, the dramatic falls in stock prices alone will cause a recession. If they stay silent you, better sell into the next rally. The entire Trump rally will unwind down to $18,500. Click here.

2) The China Trade War Ends, with the US declaring victory even though we actually lose. That alone would be worth 3,000 Dow points. Soybean futures rocket.

3) The Government Shut Down Ends Quickly. Nancy Pelosi will offer Trump some that benefits the Democrats 1000 to 1, like a citizenship track for DACA residents and Trump will take it because it’s all about him declaring another huge victory.

4) US Q4 Earnings Come in Better Than Expected, up more than 10%, with a collapsing dollar triggering a surge in overseas profits.

5) The House Takes No Action to Impeach Donald Trump. When your enemy is committing suicide, why get in the way?

Don’t Miss The Mad Hedge 2019 Predictions on Wednesday at 12:00 EST. Click here.

 Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(DON’T MISS THE JANUARY 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),

(TESTIMONIAL),

(DECODING THE GREENBACK),

(WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?)

(NOT TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE),
(SCHW), (FB), (SQ), (WMT), (AMZN), (FFIDX), (BOX)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for December 21, 2018

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
December 21, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) December is the Worst Month of the Year, for the first time in market history. Santa Claus goes on strike. Trade wars, rising interest rates, government shut down? There is a lot of blame to go around. Click here.

2) NY Fed Governor Williams Juices the Market for 300 Points. What a difference a word makes! By saying rate rises are NOT on autopilot he triggered a monster rally. Apparently, the Fed cares about the stock crash after all. Click here.

3) Q3 GDP Revised Dow to 3.4%, down 0.1% from the last look. Too bad the stock market doesn’t see it. Click here.

4) November Durable Goods Plunge from 1.3% down to 0.8%. Isn’t this what the numbers are supposed to look like going into a recession? Click here.

5) Mad Hedge Hot Tips Will be Taking a Two Week Break. When the peloton TV adds dominate the airwaves, it time to get out of town. Catch you on the ski slopes at Lake Tahoe. See you again on January 7. Good luck in the New Year. John Thomas.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY CASH IS ALWAYS THE BEST HEDGE)

(INDU)

(PRINT YOUR OWN CAR),

(TESTIMONIAL)