Semiconductor stocks have been a pocket of strength within the technology sector in Q1, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) outperforming the S&P 500 Index by around 7 percentage points year to date. However, semiconductor stocks are now vulnerable to a period of downside leadership in the short term and potentially the long term. Long-term upside momentum waned in March, as shown by a downtick in the monthly MACD histogram. This is the first downtick since the April 2025 low and serves as an indication that the cyclical uptrend in SMH is losing steam.

Traders in the futures market shifted the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of 2026 to 52%. It’s the first time the reading has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group. The move comes with global benchmark crude prices topping $110, which, combined with other developments this week, signals inflation is a growing problem.

Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains. Twin concerns about growth and unemployment have triggered talk of stagflation, a characterization that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has rejected. But the threat of a prolonged war, pressure on consumers, and a labor market that, outside of health care, lost hundreds of thousands of jobs last year, has kept concerns elevated.

due to rocketing jet fuel prices. Benchmark Brent has soared by about 58% this month, the steepest monthly jump in LSEG data going back to 1988, exceeding ​gains made during the 1990 Gulf War. The latest ​oil price spike could become the first real financial stress test for ​U.S. airlines since the pandemic, with weaker carriers more likely to shrink, borrow, or absorb deeper losses while stronger rivals keep investing and ​gaining market share. Alaska Air now expects an adjusted first-quarter loss of ​between $1.5 and $2 per share, compared with its previous estimate of 50 cents ‌to $1.5.

with the shares plumbing $165. As global stock markets tumble over deepening worries about war in the Middle East, Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, finds itself trading at its cheapest price-to-earnings multiple ​since before ChatGPT kicked off the AI boom. The steep drop in Nvidia's PE suggests the dominant AI chipmaker's shares may be a bargain, ‌but one tied to risks and uncertainty that have shaken investors' confidence in the so-called AI trade that has driven Wall Street higher in recent years.