Mad Hedge


January 17, 2020

Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today

(and what to do about them)

Risk is Extreme,

with Wharton’s Jeremy Siegal expecting the Dow Average to hit 30,000 in the next ten days. The top five stocks are posting most of the gain. Mad Hedge Marketing Timing Index at a lofty 89. How many pennies can you pick up in front of the steamroller? I’m staying in cash with a small long volatility position.

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Student Debt Tops $1.6 Trillion,

making it the next subprime crisis. Most borrowers are only paying monthly interest and not a penny towards principal. That’s millions of consumers that are out of the economy and not spending. I paid off my loans 40 years ago with a single check. The loan officer asked “You want to do what!?”

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Alphabet Tops $1 Trillion in Market Cap,

making it the fourth company to do so after Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT). Two in San Francisco and two in Seattle, what’s in the drinking water on the west coast? Will Facebook (FB) be next? All have been long term “BUYS” of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader for the past decade.

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Homebuilder Sentiment Index Rises Modestly,

in January from 74 to 75. Mortgage applications in December were up a blistering 39%. All cylinders are firing for the residential real estate market. Even rents in overpriced San Francisco are stabilizing. 

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Housing Starts Soar to a 13-Year High,

up a blockbuster 16.9% in December to 1.608 million units. The industry is cashing in on massive Fed expansion of the monetary base and ultra-low interest rates. Buyers recently enriched by rocketing stock prices are stepping up as the “wealth effect” explodes.

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Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


(TSLA), (XOM), (USO)



Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.

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