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HOT TIPS

May 4, 2026

Fiat Lux

The Entry Level Service for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today

(and what to do about them)

ADP Monthly Raises Private Jobs by 63,000,

with almost all the gains in education and health care, both demographic outcomes. Still, not every sector was growing. Professional and business services shed about 30,000 jobs, and hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector remained muted, adding only 1,000 positions in February.

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Global Inflation is Exploding,

with fuel prices rising everywhere. Natural prices in Europe are up 80%, with Qatar shut down. One guy with one drone can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil supply. For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to the strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

 

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Trump Tariffs to Rise 15% this Week.

Just what we need in the face of an unfolding global recession. Too many balls in the air at one time.

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ISM Survives Jump to 56,

the best report in 3 ½ year. New orders were at 58.

South Korean Stock Market Sees Worst Day on Record,

down 12%, as margin calls run rampant. South Korea has no energy supplies and is totally dependent on imports from the Middle East. South Korea is the world's fourth-largest buyer ​of oil, and around 70% of its purchases come from the Middle East. Korean equities had been Asia's best-performing, having doubled over the past year, making ​them particularly vulnerable to a capitulation, traders said. The benchmark KOSPI fell 698.37 points, or 12.06%, to close at 5,093.54, marking the biggest ⁠daily percentage loss in its history dating back to 1980. It lost as much as 12.65% during the session.

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Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch, the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, the Mad Hedge Biotech and Health Care Letter, the Mad Hedge AI Letter, and Jacquie’s Post:

 

Global Trading Dispatch

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or MY LONG COMMUTE),

(SPY), (TLT), (QQQ), (IWM), (AAPL), (AXP), (BAC), (KO), (CVX), (BRK/B), (XOM), (SLB), (NFLX), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (INTC), ($VIX), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (TSLA), (XLP), (XLI)

 

Mad Hedge Technology Letter

(AI AND LOWER EMPLOYEE WAGES)

(AI)

 

Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter

(THE PIÑATA SWINGS BACK)

(CNC)

 

Mad Hedge Jacquie's Post

(GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS ARE NOT DENTING THE MARKETS YET)

 

Mad Hedge AI

The CEO Who Wasn't There: AI Takes
the Earnings Call

Machu Picchu

Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.

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