Mad Hedge

HOT TIPS

April 21, 2026

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The Entry Level Service for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today

(and what to do about them)

Tim Cook is out at Apple, 

and the era of the professional manager is over. John Ternus, the hardware engineering chief who has spent more than two decades inside Cupertino, takes the CEO chair on September 1st. Cook did his job — he turned a great product company into a $4 trillion money machine, a 24-fold increase on his watch. But Apple hasn't had a true visionary at the top since Steve Jobs died, and the stock has gone nowhere this year while the Nasdaq ripped 5%. Ternus is an engineer, not a salesman. That is exactly what Apple needs right now. Buy (AAPL) on dips.

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The Fed's New Boss Goes Before the Senate Today, 

and Kevin Warsh has the most important job interview in the history of central banking. Trump wants lower rates. The bond market wants a hawk. Inflation is running at 3.58% and climbing. I have been watching Fed chairmen come and go since the days of Arthur Burns, and I have never seen one walk into a more impossible situation. Warsh is a smart man — I've met him — but smart doesn't matter when you're caught between a president who tweets and a bond market that doesn't care. Higher rates are coming whether Warsh likes it or not. Avoid (TLT) at all costs.

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The Ceasefire Expires Tomorrow, and Trump is Playing With Fire, 

telling CNBC this morning, he expects a "great deal" with Iran while simultaneously promising to bomb their power plants and bridges if nothing is signed by Wednesday. I have covered wars since Vietnam. This is not how deals get done. Bank of America's own economists warned clients this morning that the market is dangerously extrapolating the trade war playbook onto a shooting war — and that de-escalation is no longer a unilateral move. They are right. Oil at $95 is not the problem. Oil at $130 is the problem. Stay long (USO) and (XLE) until there is ink on paper.

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Dell is the AI Server Trade Nobody is Talking About, 

and Melius Research just raised its two-year target to $245. While everyone is obsessed with Nvidia, Dell is quietly stealing market share from Supermicro, whose co-founder was just indicted by the DOJ for allegedly smuggling AI servers into China. I have seen this movie before — the number two player in a hot market with a legal scandal clearing out the number one. Agentic AI is driving a whole new wave of enterprise server demand, and Dell is positioned to capture it. This is a ten-bagger in the making. Buy (DELL) on dips.

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Tesla Reports Tomorrow, and Elon Has One Job, 

say the word "robotaxi." Deliveries were missed by 12,000 units in Q1, and the stock is down 11% year to date. None of that matters. Tesla has never been a car company — it is an options contract on the future of autonomous transport, AI, and energy. The Terafab chip project alone — a joint venture with SpaceX targeting a terawatt of annual computing capacity — could be worth more than the entire current market cap if it delivers. The robotaxi announcement will come. It always does.

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Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch, the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, the Mad Hedge Biotech and Health Care Letter, the Mad Hedge AI Letter, and Jacquie’s Post:

 

Global Trading Dispatch

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HERE’S THE ICONOCLASTIC VIEW),
(SPY), ($INDU), (TLT), (COPX), (GLD), (FXA), (FXB), (FXE), (TSLA), ($WTIC), (USO), ($VIX), (XOM), (OXY), (NFLX), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (NVDA), (DHI)

 

Mad Hedge Technology Letter

(PEAK SOFTWARE IS HERE)
(CRM), (DOCU)

 

Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter

(A GUT CHECK)

(ABT)

 

Mad Hedge Jacquie's Post

(THE ENERGY SHOCK WILL TEST GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE)

 

Mad Hedge AI

LEAVE THE BAIT IN THE WATER

(WDAY)

 

Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.

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