threatening to crash the stock market. The yield on 30-year Treasuries was higher by two basis points in early Tuesday trading in New York at 5.14% — just shy of their highest levels in almost two decades. Two-year and 10-year yields were up three basis points to 4.08% and 4.61%, respectively. Gigantic government budget deficits are the cause.

not AI stocks. The world is in the early stages of a commodity super cycle that may last another decade or more as the artificial intelligence buildout collides with chronic underinvestment in energy and materials capacity. The energy sector presents the biggest asymmetric trade in modern finance because oil companies are returning a 15.5% free cash flow yield while hyperscalers have none.

held back by a lackluster housing market. Home Depot’s business has been hit by elevated interest rates and high housing prices, which have sparked a pullback in home purchases and upgrade projects over the past three years. Instead of extensive remodels that require financing and large amounts of tools and materials, Americans are taking on smaller projects such as painting and gardening.

or so says the Fed funds futures market. That may have to be the first move by the new Fed governor, Kevin Warsh. If the government wants to take the National Debt to record highs, it is going to have to pay more for the privilege. In the meantime, America’s credit rating is sliding, thanks to the Iran War, which has scared off foreign buyers,

and 1.4% in April on a signed contract basis. Sales only fell in the South. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage just hit a one-year high at 6.75%. With inflation soaring, don’t expect any interest rate cuts soon. The monthly average payment for a new home loan has risen by $167 since the start of the war.