January 15, 2015 – MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Current Positions

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No open positions.

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Today’s Working Orders

No working orders.

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Stocks…

Spu’s & Nasd 100…trade the early NY price action paying close attention to yesterday’s lows.

Line…needs sustained price action and a close over 11.00 for higher.

BPT…has been behaving much better than Line with an ORH day. 74.85 is 50 DMA resistance. Sustained price action and a close over this level is needed for pattern follow through.

 

Bonds

30 Yr. Futures…148.09-12 is initial Point & Figure support.

Bond Bulls need to exercise some patience, for every time we’ve seen one of these spike highs over the past few months there has been consolidation before the next spike to lower rates.

 

FX…

AUD/JPY… 96.46 (200DMA). This cross has hit all it’s short term #’s.

use this level for a general indicator for Risk Bias in the equity Indices.

Above the 200 DMA/ Risk On.

USD/JPY…118.20-40 is Yen support (84.45 Futures).

EUR/CHF...after 4 years of going sideways, spiked through the 2011 low of 100.68 electing long term stops.

 

Commodities…

OIL…49.66 is resistance and the short-term upside closing momentum level.

Natgas… 3.36 starts resistance. This has done almost the whole swing in a day and a half. 3.40-3.48 is a Bull Trap the first time up.

COPPER…everybody is talking at you on T.V.

Copper has completed it’s long term swing count by trading 2.50. If you’ve bothered to read my qtrly reports this price movement has been highlighted and mapped out for the past 2 years.

Can it go a little lower? Of course, however the easy trade is done and so should you.

Look for something else to do.

Soybeans….9.96 is support and the closing downside pivot. Beans need a close over 10.31 resistance for higher.

 

General Comments or Valuable Insight

The most interesting take away from yesterday was that the Yen topped first and started to break,which is what you’d expect with a Risk On board.

It was a pretty big disconnect at the time, since it took another 5 hours for the Equity Indices to follow.

Mentally it was hard to get on board with the weakness unless you decided to use CAD/JPY or EUR/JPY to get into the trade.

Looks like Yra was right…Swiss stopped defending the peg against the Euro last night @ 3:30 CDT.

The last time i saw a 20 figure move in a currency was 1998 when the Fed intervened to weaken the dollar against the Yen.

Let the markets digest this before you start swinging.

As of writing there has been a big flight into U.S. Treasuries, Gold, and the yen crosses all of which I wouldn’t chase.

New weekly lows today in the Equity indices from yesterday’s session need to be monitored closely.?

Lower lows followed by reversals higher can prove to be Bear Traps today. Keep your head in the game for it will be a volatile day.

 

CRUDE

150114_161400_CQG_Integrated_Client_Chart_CLEG5_-_Crude_Light_(Globex)_Feb_15_Daily

Natgas

150114_155836_CQG_Integrated_Client_Chart_NGE_-_Natural_Gas_(Globex)_Daily_Continuation

For Medium Term Outlook click here.

For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.