January 15, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGOLong at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNALong at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAPLong at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

OILong Feb $19 call @ $1.70

MDRLong @ $9.31

DIS Long Jan 25th $107 Call @ $3.35
DIS Long Jan 25th $107 Put @ $3.10

XLong at $20.30
X Jan 18th - $21.00 Call @ $0.50

RRC Long at $11.85
RRCShort Jan 25th - $12.00 Call @ $0.30
......................................................................................... 

Yesterday, I suggested a covered call on RRC.  If you followed the alert, you would have sold the calls that expire next Friday after buying the stock.

The market pulled back slightly yesterday to close 13.65 points lower.  For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,582.61.

And it was the second day the market contracted.  For the day, the range was only 18.91 which was about the same as Friday's range.

With an average daily range of 51.22 points, we once again had a contraction of 37% of the average.

After the bounce we have seen from the oversold condition, these contractions bode well for the bulls.

We will see an expansion after these series of contractions and I am biased for this move to continue higher.

This is for a few reasons.

The first is that yesterday's close percentage was 65% which gives the bias to take out yesterday's high before the low.

The second reason is that the weekly close percentage was 97.9%. This does suggest that last week's high of 2,597.82 should be violated before last week's low of 2,524.56.

So, the support areas from last week's weekly price bar should be valid all week.

The final reason is that the S & P 500 did close for two days above the major 2,578.10 level.  In fact, even with yesterday's sell-off, the 
S & P 500 managed to close above this major level.

So, the market has now had three consecutive closes above 2,578.10.  This would suggest that if the market does pullback, the minor 2,558.58 level should offer support. 
 
The support level from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,561 to 2,566 area.

And the support level from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,580 to 2,581 area.

Watch to see how the market reacts around these levels.

Both DAL and JPM reported this morning and are off slightly.  Tomorrow morning, we will hear from GS.

And Thursday, we will hear from Netflix.

Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned above.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX: 
 
Major level: 25.00 
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88 
Minor level: 21.10 
Minor level: 19.53 **
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63

The VIX closed at 19.07 for the day.  After taking out the 18.75 level, the VIX is bouncing.

At this point, I would expect strong resistance at 21.88 and at 25.

And minor resistance is at 20.31.

17.19 is minor support.

SPX: 

Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65 **
Major level: 2,578.10 <
Minor level: 2,558.58 **
Minor level: 2,519.53 
Major level: 2,500.00 
Minor level: 2,484.38 
Minor level: 2,453.13 
Major level: 2,437.50  
Minor level: 2,421.88 

The 2,578.10 level continues to offer support.  Support should be at 2,568 and 2,558.

To move down to 2,500, the S & P 500 will need two closes under 2,558.58.

The 60 minute chart remains bearish but is close to crossing into an uptrend.  Price has traded between the midband and the 200 day ema for four days.

The midband is 2,596.57 and the 200 ema is 2,575.45. For the market to move higher, it will have to clear the midpoint.

QQQ:  

Major level: 168.75 
Minor level: 167.19 
Minor level: 164.06 
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94 **
Minor level: 157.81  
Major level: 156.25 
Minor level: 154.69 
Minor level: 151.56 
Major level: 150.00 
Minor level: 148.44 
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75

The QQQ closed at 159.27.  The QQQ could test 156.25, but I do believe support should come in at 157.81.

Like the S & P 500, the 30 minute chart is bullish and the 60 minute chart is bearish.  The midband on the 60 minute chart is now 159.59.

The 60 minute chart is close to crossing into an uptrend.  A bullish crossover would suggest higher prices to follow.

IWM:
 
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.19 **
Minor level: 139.06 
Major level: 137.50 
Minor level: 135.94 
Minor level: 132.81 

The IWM closed at 142.25.  To move lower, the IWM would need two closes under 142.19.  But at this point, it should offer support.

And support should be at 140.63.  If that cannot hold, I would expect 137.50 to hold.

And technical support is right around 141.54.

TLT:  

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27 
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 
Minor level: 119.92

The TLT closed at  120.48, down 0.45 on the day.  The TLT did hit the 120.31 level.

I don't see the TLT breaking under 119.53 on this drive.  Watch to see if the TLT can hold at the 120.31 level.  If it can, it should bounce.

GLD:  

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10 **
Minor level: 119.53 
Major level: 118.75 
Minor level: 117.97 
Minor level: 116.41 
Major level: 115.63 

The GLD closed at 122.09.  The GLD did break through the 121.88 level.

123.44 should be resistance.  And support should be at 120.31.

XLE: 

Major level: 68.75 
Minor level: 67.97 
Minor level: 66.41 
Major level: 65.63 
Minor level: 64.85 
Minor level: 63.28 
Major level: 62.50 
Minor level: 61.72 
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03 
Major level: 56.25

The XLE closed at 61.86.  The XLE is pulling back after hitting the 62.50 level.

Clearing 62.50 would be bullish.  But, at this point, it is resistance.

At this point, I would expect support at 60.16.

Like most of the markets at this point, the 30 minute chart is bullish and the 60 minute is bearish.  And price is trading right at the midband on the 60 minute chart.  That level is 61.60.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28 <<
Major level: 87.50 <
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 
Major level: 85.16 
Minor level: 84.97 

The FXY close at 88.24. It closed up 0.27 on the day.  It will need two closes above 88.48 to move higher.

Minor resistance is at 88.28.  If the FXY can clear this level, look for it to move higher.  87.89 is minor support.

AAPL:

Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 
Major level: 168.75 
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 159.38 
Minor level: 153.13 ** 
Major level: 150.00 
Minor level: 146.88 
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

Apple closed exactly on the 150 line.  At this point, wait to see what Apple does.

A break under 150 and I would expect another downleg.  If it holds as support, then a bounce would ensue.

154.69 is resistance on the upside.  Minor support is at 148.44.  Two closes under 148.44 and Apple should drop to 143.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CMG, REGN, VRTX, CRM, KMB, WIX, DG, ZEN, THS, FN, FL, CF, ROKU, CIEN

Bearish Stocks: BKNG, PODD, UN, UL, IBKR, WTW, CAG, STZ

Be sure to check earnings release dates.