While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70
MDR Long @ $9.31
DIS Long Jan 25th $107 Call @ $3.35
DIS Long Jan 25th $107 Put @ $3.10
X Long at $20.30
X Jan 18th - $21.00 Call @ $0.50
RRC Long at $11.85
RRC Short Jan 25th - $12.00 Call @ $0.30
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X ended up settling Friday at $21.50. This was 50 cents in the money, so your calls should have been assigned. The end result was a return of 5.9% for 14 days. The cash return, if you followed the suggested unit size was $480 for the two weeks.
The S & P 500 ended up closing 34.75 points higher Friday. It closed the day at 2,670.71. And Friday's high was 2,675.47.
The market ended up closing virtually on the minor 2,675.83 level.
Of course, the S & P 500 took out the objective of 2,656.30 we were looking for. And almost closed above the next minor level. Two closes above the next minor level of 2,675.83 and the objective becomes 2,745.40.
The midband on the daily chart is 2,737.36. The midband is within 8 points of the 2,745.40 level. How the market reacts at these resistance levels should tell us a lot about what the next move for the market will be.
For the day, the market closed at 83% of the daily price bar. This suggests the odds favor Friday's high will be violated before the low.
The support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,661 area.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 74.45 points higher. Of course, the close percentage from the prior week of 97.9% was predictive in that the prior week high was violated before the low.
And for last week, the close percentage was similar. Last week closed at 95.5%. So the odds for this week are very similar to last week's odds of violating the high.
And the support level from last week's price bar is in the 2,622 to 2,626 area.
I do need to point out that the 60 minute chart is very close to crossing into an uptrend.
The 200 ema is 2,588 and the midband is 2,592. If the 60 minute chart does cross into an uptrend, it will indicate that higher prices should follow.
Earnings continue this week. This afternoon we will hear from IBM.
And tomorrow afternoon, we will hear from LRCX, FFIV, and URI.
Thursday afternoon, we will get earnings from INTC, SBUX, and WDC.
Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned above.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.97 **
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
The VIX closed at 17.80 for the day. Friday was the first close under 17.97 level. A close today under 17.97 and the VIX should drop to 15.63.
But, the VIX is now sitting right on the midband on its daily chart.
The midband is 17.11. And Friday's low was 17.17. As you know, if the VIX breaks under the midband, it should head lower.
The VIX has crossed into a downtrend on the 60 minute chart. Technical resistance should be at the 22 area.
SPX:
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 **
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00
The S & P 500 hit the 2,656.30 objective. And Friday, just closed under the next minor level of 2,675.83.
Two closes under 2,675.83 and the new objective becomes 2,734.40.
2,665 should offer minor support. And if that does not hold, look for support at 2,658.
Watch for possible resistance at the minor 2,675.83 level.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
The QQQ closed at 165.25. A close today above 164.06 implies a move up to 168.75.
162.50 should be support.
The midband on the daily chart is 169.23 and the QQQ is approaching it.
The 60 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. This does imply higher prices to follow.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31**
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
The IWM closed at 147.33. Friday was the second close above 145.31. This now suggests that the objective for the IWM is 150.
Like the QQQ, the IWM has crossed into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart.
141 should be technical suppot for the IWM.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 118/14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 119.56, down 0.63 on the day. A close today under 119.92 and the TLT should drop 118.75.
The daily chart did cross into an uptrend. This suggests that buying the next pullback makes sense.
118.75 should be strong support on the TLT.
GLD:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The GLD closed at 121.02. Friday was the first close under 121.10. A close today under 121.10 and the GLD should drop to 118.75.
121.88 should now be resistance. Minor support is at 120.70. A break under this level and expect the GLD to head lower.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 63.84. This was the first close above the minor 63.28 level. This now suggests that if the XLE closes above 63.84 today, it should test 65.63.
64.84 is minor resistance. And 63.28 is minor support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48 **
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50 <
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY close at 87.01. It will need two closes above 88.48 to move higher. And two closes under 86.72 and the FXY should drop.
The FXY is sitting right on the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 86.82 and Friday's low was 86.94.
Still baised for a move lower. A break under the midband and the FXY should continue lower.
86.72 should offer some support.
AAPL:
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13 **
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Apple closed Friday at 156.82. 162.50 should be the objective.
153.13 should be minor support. Technical resistance is at 162, which is right around the objective.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, REGN, AVGO, AMGB, VRTX, CRM, DXCM, RH, WIX, ROST, NKE, SQ, THS, CIEN, BSX
Bearish Stocks: MTN, LGND, VOD, ORAN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
