January 3, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
APPL Long????????????? ? ?? ????? 520.70????????????????????? 540 ???????????????????? Stop Close
SSO Long?????????????????? ? ? ?? ? 98 ????????????????????????? 99.80 ????????? ? ? ? ?? Stop Close
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No working orders
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Stocks..
BAC...is putting in an ORH week with a close over 15.79. While the pattern looks good I am not a fan of chasing this strength.
LNG...as long as this holds above 42.40 close I'm a fan.
Spu's...a close today below 1816.75 would be price negative.
Sustained price action over 1832-34 is needed for the Bulls to think this was little more than another short lived equity check.
SSO...a close today below 99.80 will have us exit our index position and wait.
PIN & EPI...these two India Etf's line up slightly different from a technical view, however they are both into areas that have to hold for these to rally.
GDX & GDXJ...both the mining etf's put in ORH days the last trading day of the year and have seen pattern follow through yesterday.
33.52 is first resistance in the GDXJ.
22.80 is the corresponding # in the GDX
Bonds...
30 Yr. Futures...sell rallies not breaks.
Bund...139.65-75 is resistance. A close over 140.10 is needed to confirm any upside.
FX...
EUR/AUD...has let off some of it's overbought steam. Back over 154.30
this cross remains positive. 151.65 is today's support.
The first week of July we had a similar day and a half sell off in this cross @ the 135 level, before it started another 20 figure rally.
This has been the best trending cross for the past year and a half.
Pay attention to the game. This cross has mirrored a rise in risk assets.
We'll need a few days to decide whether this break was an overbought pressure release or the start of something bigger.
AUD/USD...went to within our qrtly pivot a couple of hours ago.
Maintaining and closing over that level would lead to another 100-150 points in the Aussie, and a much deeper correction in the cross.
USD/JPY...104.07 (96.28 Futures) is the 18 day mvg avg and resistance. Macro buy stops are under 103.77 USD/JPY (over 96.41 Futures)
Commodities...
Oil...96.25 is resistance and the upside pivot. By maintaining above there is not much until 98.
Brent Oil...108.20 is near term resistance and the upside pivot.
107.46 is the 200 day mvg avg and support.
GOLD...will put in an ORH week with a close today over 1218.50
Silver...anything close to 20.50 is resistance. A close over 19.98 is needed for a weekly ORH pattern.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Keep it simple. Use Tuesday's closes in everything for your macro pivot.
The ferocity of yesterday's profit taking was not what most were looking for. It certainly gave some respite to the overbought condition in most markets
5 A.M. Globex opening range trading was the feature. This is classic capital flow trading 101.
When the lemmings are in full flight, you either run with the herd and hope you're good enough to not be hurled over the cliff into the abyss with the horde, or you find high ground and spectate the bloodletting from afar.
Markets will remain extremely thin!
Time frame trading today.
Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technicals.
The 2013 analogy...you legitimately went to a message parlor looking for deep tissue work..not only did you have a smoking hot therapist, you got a happy ending free of charge.
Bonus time!!!
I do not think 2014 will be as straightforward.
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