January 30, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
APPL Long????????????? ? ?? ????? 520.70
Orders are "stop on close" unless stated otherwise.
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Today's Working Orders
Spu's...(ESH4) BUY @?1732?? GTC
Nasd 100...(ENQH)?BUY?@??3441?? GTC
USD/JPY...Sell Yen @ 100.35 (H) Futures..or
Buy USD/JPY @ 99.65 ? GTC
GTC...Good Until Canceled
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Stocks...
Spu's...I'm still looking to buy around 1730 with a very tight stop.
Minimally, I'd like to see the stops below 1760 get elected.
Presently, the Spu's are holding point & figure support @ 1760.
Spu's are in a 35 point range.
Nasd 100...3440 +- 5 points is the next tgt area.
DAX...has a negative pattern. Last night's high is the 50 day mvg avg and a retest of the ORL pattern. DAX needs above 93.70 for any type of bottoming action. 9160 would be today's oversold area.
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Bonds...
It's been a Spu/Bond trade for years and the theme hasn't changed.
The only element that changes is which instrument leads on a particular day.
FYI...This spread has not been close to the 200 day mvg avg since December 2012.
30 yr. Bonds...put in an ORH day yesterday by closing above 132.20. I'm still looking for an assault on the 200 day around 134.26.
Bunds & Gilts ... both have ORH months working.
DAX/BUND=SPU/BOND...it's the Teutonic equivalent.
World Bond markets have been leading the 2014 trade.
Investors have been taking profits in Equities and buying treasuries.
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FX...
USD/CHF...Suisse is another currency working on an Outside reversal week. Suisse needs a close over 89.80 USD/CHF to negate the pattern for a stronger Swiss Franc (under 111.35 Futures).
Commodities...
Natgas... 5.55 is near term resistance. maintaining over 5.75 is short term positive. 5 cents +- 5.00 is daily support. 4.82 is the downside pivot.
Oil...98.00-98.25 is the level it failed from first trading night of the year.
Oil would have to maintain above this level to try for the stops above the yearly close of 98.70 which should lead to price rejection @ the 200 day mvg avg of 99.30
Oh joy, it's warm enough in Chicago to actually walk outside.
Trade accordingly.
General Comments orValuable Insight
FOMC was a dud. There was no excess volatility caused by the statement.
Short term technical levels remain static. They do not change.
Equity Indices technical models are down. Although I can make a case for an interim low (not taking out the Dec. FOMC low of 1760 in the Spu's) I remain sanguine about the market.
I'm in no hurry to get long Equities Indices unless it's at a # set I can codify the risk. That means the Spu's closing 2 days over 1804 or @ 1730. I have no interest in trading in between.
Tomorrow you should refocus on Tuesday's Financials research. A chart break down in the banking sector will have the Equity Indices on the defensive for another 1-2 weeks.
I canceled orders yesterday and made it very clear that potentially volatile price action was no place for retail investors to delve.
To the pros among you I apologize for the over cautious e-mails.
You know what to do just off the levels I write and how to read price action.
Our client base has been expanding, many of whom should not be attempting trades on event days.
Trading is about taking measured risk when you have a good risk reward profile. There is not time for hand holding when markets become a volatile price action scrum.
Retail guys should keep their money and leave it alone.
Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s.
We are neutral Equities. The next several weeks are setting up to be a big trading affair.
When determining to take a trade, how a market moves to a level is as important as when the instrument trades a certain price.
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