Jacque's Post Archives

May 12, 2025

Jacque's Post

(CHINA AND THE U.S. AGREE TO A TRADE DEAL IN SWITZERLAND)

May 12, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

MONDAY, MAY 12

8:30 a.m. Australia Consumer Confidence

Previous: -6%

Forecast: 2%

TUESDAY, MAY 13

6:00 a.m. NFIB Small Business survey (April)

8:30 a.m. CPI (April)

WEDNESDAY, MAY 14

9:30 p.m. Australia Unemployment Rate

Previous: 4.1%

Forecast: 4.1%

THURSDAY, MAY 15

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims (week ended May 10)

8:30 a.m. Retail sales (April)

8:30 a.m. PPI (April)

8:30 a.m. Empire State mfg index (May)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed mfg index (May)

9:15 a.m. Industrial production (April)

10:00 a.m. Business inventories (March)

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey (May)

FRIDAY, MAY 16

8:30 a.m. Housing starts (April)

8:30 a.m. Import prices (April)

The U.S. & China meeting in Switzerland: will it deliver?

The news has just come through…

U.S. and China have agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days in a major tariff breakthrough. Reciprocal tariffs will be cut from 125% to 10%. Both the U.S. and China said they will continue discussions on economic and trade policy. What is in doubt is whether the 90-day pause is enough time for the two sides to reach a detailed agreement. But at least we have some movement on negotiation. Dow futures have jumped 1000 points, gold has fallen, and the U.S. dollar has surged.

In other news…

The health of the consumer will be clearly visible this Thursday when we see retail sales data and the producer price index report. We will also see the CPI report which will tell us how the trade conflict has affected inflation.

The S&P 500 has already rallied more than 13% from its April 8 lows, so the market may need a positive surprise on the trade front to take another big jump.

I tend to believe the limited ranges we have been seeing have been in anticipation of some de-escalation out of China, and as such, when the actual news comes out, the market reaction might be rather ho-hum and could even mark a tactical top, regardless of what the news is.

This level in the market could be a good time to re-establish short positions or add to them if you have them already.

They don’t make things like they used to…

White goods, toys, heaters, whatever you can think of – most of these things don’t have a long life.

Some products don’t even outlast the warranty period before they break down and stop working, or need a part replaced, which is not even worth the cost.

Consider the cost of getting someone to your house to replace the part and the cost of the part. It’s often not worth it.

I remember growing up with a Kelvinator refrigerator, which lasted around 30-40 years. Can you imagine anything lasting that long today?

Today, companies make products that are designed to break down, so the consumer must go back and buy another one.

Forty and fifty years ago, we didn’t have the technology we have today, so why, with all the technology we have now, is it so difficult to make quality products?

I’m not saying all products are poorly made, but you must admit that the quality overall is not evident.

It seems companies making money trumps making quality – so disappointing.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index is up 13% since the April lows at 4835. No confirmation that we have seen a top yet, although upside momentum is slowing and suggests further gains would likely be limited, as the potential of a peak for at least a few weeks/months is rising. So far, we have had a high of S&P 500 5832 in the futures.

Support: 5575/85, 5475/85

Resistance: 5760/85 area/5830

GOLD

Bearish technical data is visible in the gold chart (sell mode on the MACD) & and an overbought pattern. However, we could still see more ranging/consolidation before gold completely rolls over.

Support: $3268/73 & $3197 & $3075

Resistance: $3353 & $3438/43

BITCOIN

We’ve seen Bitcoin move sharply higher – the long-term view remains in focus with a target between $125k and $150k. The market is getting overbought with such a sharp move, so some consolidation might be in front of us before further moves to the upside.

Support: $99.90/$100.4k & $96.0/$96.4k

Resistance: $104.4k

HISTORY CORNER

On May 12

QI CORNER

U.S. officials met with Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this past weekend to address the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. This chart from Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, shows why a ratcheting back of rhetoric, at the very least, should be expected.

Ernst Imfeld (Family Office)

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

May 9, 2025

Jacque's Post

(AMERICAN TRADE POLICY HANDS AUSTRALIAN BEEF A TOP SLOT)

May 9, 2025

Hello everyone

The Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, citing inflation concerns and continued uncertainty across the economic landscape.

Australia scores big thanks to Trump

President Trump has just gifted Australia near monopoly status in China’s almost $5 billion premium beef market.

Chinese officials have effectively blocked American beef from entering the country, leaving Australia with the top of the market almost to itself. America sold $2.4 billion (US$1.6 billion) to China in 2024.

America’s missteps with China have put Australia in a very fortunate position, where they should benefit handsomely.

Beef is Australia’s biggest agricultural export to China, worth more than the wine and lobster trade combined. Australian farmers sold $2.2 billion worth of beef to China in 2024, making it Australia’s second biggest beef market after America (which bought $4.4 billion worth of Australian beef to the chagrin of the Trump administration).

With billions of premium beef sales potentially up for grabs, a herd of Australian beef exporters will fly into Shanghai within a fortnight for SIAL China, an important trade event for the food and beverage industry in the world’s second biggest economy.

Since securing a second term as Prime Minister of Australia last weekend, Anthony Albanese has been enjoying praise from Beijing, and Chinese media highlighting the prospects of future trade ties between Australia and China.

Australian wine exporters, along with exporters of cotton, timber, wheat, and lobsters, are also experiencing a role reversal, as these former victims of Beijing’s trade restrictions now find themselves benefiting from Chinese trade imposts on America and Canada.

Favourable bilateral politics – and a desire to find non-American supplies – also helped Australian gas giant Woodside recently snare a 15-year-long supply agreement with a Chinese state-owned giant.

Beijing’s first strike on the US herd came in March, as Chinese officials refused to renew trading licenses for American beef companies. Even if it lands at the port, they are turning it away.

In April, Mr Xi responded to Mr Trump’s 145 per cent tariffs on China with a 125 per cent tariff imposed on American imports. Even if American beef could get into China, those tariffs would decimate the trade.

Kevin Wang, A Beijing based sales manager of high-end beef importer Tenderplus, said “People are looking for Australian partners to import beef. Some have already flown to Australia to talk with trade partners.”

Menus have already been reprinted at premium restaurants around China. Even the most patriotically American places are looking increasingly Australian.

Americans digesting tariffs on Australian beef.

The Shanghai and Beijing branches of New York institution Wolfgang’s Steakhouse are now selling Australian porterhouse, striploin, rib eye, and filet mignon as its supplies of American beef are two weeks away from extinction.

In the centre of Beijing, we find Morton’s, which is owned by Houston billionaire Tilman Fertitta. Here, the restaurant has swapped its house red from an American drop to a Clare Valley Shiraz, a very good match with its Australian porterhouse from Rangers Valley in NSW’s northern tablelands.

China’s biggest sources of beef are Brazil and Argentina, but they sell at the cheaper end of the market.

Restrictions on other high-end sellers in Japan and Canada effectively shut them out of China’s market.

The results of Beijing’s “safeguards” investigation, due in the second half of the year, could see it increase tariffs on foreign suppliers. High-volume, low-cost sellers look to be most at risk, but it could shrink the size of China’s market considerably – including the premium end.

Australian Shadow Trade Minister, Kevin Hogan, looks beyond trade negotiations and considers the macro landscape.

Watch this space.

Move over MicroStrategy, Strive is offering a new product

A new NASDAQ listed firm – Strive - has just announced its merger with Asset Entities, creating the first publicly traded Bitcoin treasury company.

The firm will oversee $2 billion of assets.

The agreement will allow the merged company to carry out aggressive purchases of Bitcoin through new financial products, like BlackRock and Greyscale.

Strive Enterprises was co-founded in 2022 by Vivek Ramaswamy and Anson Frericks. The new firm will be led by Strive CEO Matt Cole, who previously managed a $70 billion fixed income portfolio.

Several strategies will be available under Cole’s leadership.

One strategy will be a Bitcoin for equity tax-free exchange, which will be structured under Section 351 of the IRS tax code.

Strive Enterprises will own 94.2% of the newly combined public company, while shareholders of Asset Entities will receive a 5.8% share.

It appears Strive is executing a similar playbook to Strategy and Metaplanet in terms of centralizing ownership, utilizing equity and debt financing to accumulate Bitcoin, and treating it as a treasury reserve asset.

Although it could also dilute its equity, it is taking risks to maximize long-term value by aggressively deploying capital in BTC. However, Strive’s section 351 tax-free exchange of Bitcoins for equity is different from both Metaplanet and Strategy. If successful, Strive could persuade Bitcoin holders to trade their Bitcoin for equity without having to pay a tax.

This article is only an item of interest, not a recommendation to buy any products marketed by Strive.

Cheers

Jacquie

May 7, 2025

Jacque's Post

(A RETEST OF THE LOWS IS QUITE LIKELY)

May 7, 2025

Hello everyone

The bounce since the lows on April 8 has been quite strong on easing angst about tariffs and Federal Reserve independence.

The strength and breadth of the rally have triggered some positive technical signals. However, it would be foolish to believe that we have escaped the bear in the woods altogether just yet.

History provides a sobering reminder about bear market psychology.

Let’s revisit 2008.

During the Global Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 experienced rallies averaging 10% each (typically lasting less than two months), while ultimately losing 57% over a year and a half. The Tech Bubble saw seven rallies averaging 14% over five-month periods amid a 49% overall decline spanning two and a half years.

Dan Niles, founding partner of Alpha One Capital Partners, explains that “the desire to believe it was the bottom was quite high during each of those rallies, but earnings estimates, and trailing PE (share price to earnings) multiples had to still go lower, which ultimately drove the stocks lower.”

Niles argues that finding the market bottom will normally take more time unless there is fiscal stimulus or easier monetary policy. However, the government is currently prioritizing spending cuts and as Niles points out, “the Fed is on hold given their concerns over tariff-driven inflation in the pipeline, and unemployment still remains low.”

U.S.-China relations remain a significant market variable. Prospects of a meaningful resolution in the short term, at least, appear dim.

As we head into the second half of the year, it appears likely that underlying weakness in the economy will show up in the data and will lead to negative GDP growth in the third quarter and S&P500 earnings expectations being revised lower.

Given this scenario, the current Wall Street estimates for over 10% S&P 500 earnings per share growth for 2025 look optimistic and should instead be dialled back down to flat. If we enter a recession, EPS growth is likely to go negative.

This means that the market’s current valuation multiple is too high. The S&P trailing multiple at 23x should probably be closer to 19x at the current inflation levels. Niles explains that in a recession, this PE is usually closer to mid-teens.

Niles comments that the above factors will probably cause a retest of the lows for stock prices at the very least.

The U.S. dollar will continue to fall

The dollar index (DXY) has tumbled 9% below its January peak and tumbled to a three-year low. After a near-term bounce, more dollar weakness is on the horizon.

Cheers

Jacquie

May 5, 2025

Jacque's Post

(THE RETAIL INVESTOR & WARREN BUFFETT ARE POLES APART)

May 5, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

MONDAY, MAY 5

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (April)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services final (April)

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (April)

Previous: 50.8

Forecast: 50.6

Earnings: Clorox, Palantir Technologies, Ford Motor, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Diamondback Energy, Coterra Energy, Zimmer Biomet Loews, Tyson Foods, ON Semiconductor

TUESDAY, MAY 6

8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (March)

10:00 a.m. Canada Ivey PMI

Previous: 51.3

Forecast: 51.2

Earnings: Arista Networks, Wynn Resorts, Electronic Arts, Devon Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, TransDigm Group, Marriott International, IQVIA Holdings, Fastenal, Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Gartner, Marathon Petroleum, Global Payments, Fidelity National Information Services, Constellation Energy, Archer-Daniels-Midland

WEDNESDAY, MAY 7

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting

Previous: 4.5%

Forecast: 4.5%

2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound

3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit SA

Earnings: Paycom Software, Fortinet, Skyworks Solutions, Axon Enterprise, Occidental Petroleum, DoorDash, Corteva, EF Industries Holdings, Rockwell Automation, Uber Technologies, Emerson Electric, Walt Disney.

THURSDAY, MAY 8

7:00 a.m. UK Rate Decision

Previous: 4.5%

Forecast: 4.25%

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (04/26)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/03)

8:30 a.m. Unit Labour Costs preliminary (Q1)

8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q1)

10:00 Wholesale Inventories final (March)

Earnings: Expedia Group, Insulet, TKO Group Holdings, Paramount Global, Microchip Technology, Akamai Technologies, Warner Bros. Discovery, ConocoPhillips, Tapestry, Molson Coors Beverage, Match Group.

FRIDAY, MAY 9

8:30 a.m. Canada Unemployment Rate

Previous: 6.7%

Forecast: 6.7%

8:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams speaks on Taylor Rules in Policy, Stanford University.

10:00 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research and Head of the Statistics Group Kartik Athreya speaks on NY State Large Credit Unions CEO Roundtable.

10:15 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams speaks on Reykjavik Economic Conference, Iceland.

All Eyes on The Fed This Week

The Federal Reserve Meeting will be a key focus this week – traders will be awaiting crucial updates on interest rate projections and the Fed’s assessment of the US economy. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, but they will likely stress that the economic outlook is uncertain, thanks to tariffs, federal layoffs, & stricter immigration. It will be interesting to see if the US dollar can continue its bounce.

The Average Investor and Warren Buffett – like chalk and cheese

It could be argued that Warren Buffett’s results came from reputation, privilege, access and hard-fought strategic advantage, and not simply buying and holding undervalued stocks.

For most of the last 60 years, Buffett has operated from a position of scale, influence and privilege, that’s completely inaccessible to retail investors. Many of his most lucrative deals weren’t found in the bargain bin of the stock exchange – they were created in private conversations with CEOs, Treasury Secretaries, and Presidents. His returns weren’t solely fuelled by patience, discipline and astute stock selection – they were turbocharged by exclusive deals, regulatory favour and reputation-fuelled access.

So, let’s check out Buffett’s advantages –

Firstly, you and I invest our own money which we need to earn first and then pay taxes on.

Buffett invests other people’s money, for free, pre-tax, and pockets his share of the gains.

That’s thanks to the “Insurance Float Advantage” – this has helped him grow wealth faster than any average investor ever could hope to aspire.

Secondly, Buffett prefers not to pay dividends, allowing Berkshire Hathaway to retain earnings and compound wealth tax-efficiently.

The average investor mostly cannot afford to compound their returns over a 60-year investment career without having to take any out to live on.

Thirdly, many of Buffett’s deals included warrants and preferred shares with terms that provided Berkshire Hathaway with significant upside but very limited risk – structures not available to retail investors who instead must invest in riskier common stock. Billions of Buffett’s profits were accumulated in this fashion.

Next, we can understand Buffett’s additional advantage in having direct access to policymakers and financial government agency officials that the average investor couldn’t even hope to have. Since the 1980’s, Buffett’s companies, such as BNSF and his utilities, have benefited from policies shaped in part by industry lobbying. Berkshire has influence in Washington and Wall Street circles far beyond the average investor’s reach.

Of particular significance is Buffett’s access to private placements and preferential treatment since 1967. For example, Buffett was involved in the rescue of GE Capital in 2008, when he invested $3 billion in preferred GE stock yielding 10% annually, with added warrants. Ordinary investors got none of these protective features.

It is arguable that Buffett’s greatest returns were made decades ago, and that his post-1990s returns were heavily reliant on reputation, access, and scale – not just investment skill.

The average investor has no chance to be like Warren Buffett. Yes, we can be patient, and buy cheap stocks, and hold them, but we certainly don’t have proximity to policymakers and government officials, nor do we get special deals or preferential treatment.

My advice: do not compare yourself to Warren Buffett. Instead, keep educating yourself, and keep buying stocks through turbulent times and when the market is rallying.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P 500

The index has broken above key resistance at 5475/85. The price action could be part of a period of limited ranging, with an upside bias – though don’t expect large moves to the upside. This could last for the next few months.

Resistance: 5700/5780/5885

Support: 5570/5475 area

GOLD

Gold has moved lower from the April 22nd high at $3500. Bearish technical argue that we may have seen the top for at least a month, and potentially much more.

But when topping occurs, we must remember that it is common to see periods of ranging, rather than a one- way decline.

Resistance: $3265/70 and $3367

Support: $3200/$3160/$3049

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has hit 97.9k – that 109.4k peak remains in view. However, some consolidation may be seen for the next few weeks before we see more strong moves to the upside.

Resistance: 97.9/100.5/101k

Support: 95.3/95.8k and 92.7/88.5k

CURRENT TRADES

Take profits in the (IBIT) and (MSTR) options spreads expiring in May. Monitor (MSTR) option spread expiring in July and your (IBIT) expiring in June. It was up to each individual how many contracts they entered for each trade.

(IBIT)

(IBIT) Price = $48.14 on March 17, 2025

1/ Sell 1 May 16, 2025, (IBIT) $55 call

Buy 1 May 16, 2025, (IBIT) $50 call

Max Profit = $337

Max Loss = $163

Cost = $1.63

Sell 1 June 20, 2025(IBIT) $65 call

Buy 1 June 20, 2025 (IBIT) $55 call

Max Profit = $815

Max Loss = $185

Cost = $1.85

(MSTR)

MicroStrategy (MSTR) Price = $297.49 on March 17,

Sell 1 May 16, 2025 (MSTR) $320 call

Buy 1 May 16, 2025 (MSTR) $310 call

Max Profit = $630

Max Loss = $370

Cost = $3.70

Sell 1 July 18, 2025 ((MSTR) $325 call

Buy 1 July 18, 2025 (MSTR) $315 call

Max Profit = $647

Max Loss = $353

Cost = $3.5

MicroStrategy Daily Chart (March 17, 2025)

(MSTR) May 2, 2025

(IBIT) Daily Chart (March 17, 2025

(IBIT) May 2, 2025

HISTORY CORNER

On May 5

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Nicole Lapin

NYT bestselling author

Money News Network founder

Cheers

Jacquie

May 2, 2025

Jacque's Post

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S APRIL 30, 2025 WEBINAR)

May 2, 2025

Hello everyone

TITLE – “The Special Recession Issue”

PERFORMANCE –

MTD = 12.69%

2025 YTD = 26.52%

Since Inception = +776%

Trailing one year return = 84.47%

PORTFOLIO –

Risk On

(MSTR) 5/$220-$230 call spread

(MSTR) 5/$250-$260 call spread

(NFLX) 5/$850-$860 call spread

(JPM) 5/$190-$200 call spread

Risk Off

(SPY) 5/ $570-$580 put spread

(GLD) 5/ $275- $285 call spread

(TSLA) 5/$320-$330 put spread (Profits taken)

METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Market looks through the noise to a trade war solution…

Bonds stabilize after Trump backs off Powell firing.

Markets have entered wide trading ranges with a lot of volatility.

Economic data remains consistently weak, capping any upside in stocks.

Recession call is still on, with China in no hurry to negotiate.

US Dollar hits three-year lows on “Sell America” trade

Oil bounces on Iran war risks.

Gold remains golden at new all-time highs, silver ready to play catch-up.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – UNIVERSALLY BAD

Negative 0.3% GDP growth, 4.3% March inflation rate point to stagflation.

Jay Powell hints at no rate cuts this year.

Consumer Confidence dives on tariff fears from 57.0 in March to 52.2 in April.

IMF cuts US GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 1.8%.

Leading Economic Indicators plunge, down 0.7% to 100.5.

Europe lowers interest rates, down 0.25% to 2.25%.

Unemployment fears hit five year- high.

US Inflation Expectations hits 44 year- high.

STOCKS – ROLLER COASTER

Stock markets suffer worst start to a year in history, but still expensive.

Morgan Stanley marks down (SPX) earnings, from $270 to $257 per share.

The Volatility Index ($VIX) spikes to $54.

All Capital gains of the last 13 months wiped out at market lows.

Chaos reigns supreme, with the (SPX) dropping 20% at the lows.

Hedge Funds are still dumping technology stocks, as they still command big premiums to the main market.

Tech leads the downturn on every selloff.

All long-term technical indicators have rolled over, meaning that the bear market could continue until summer at the earliest and next year at the latest.

2025 will be a down year for stocks.

John is looking to buy gold and banking stocks.

Vistra (VST) long term hold.

BONDS – STABILIZING

Foreign Central Banks selling US Treasury Bonds and buying Treasury bills.

Treasury discussed banning sales of bonds by foreign investors or hitting T-bills with withholding taxes.

With Bonds suffering their worst selloff in 25 years no one is rushing back in.

Continuing collapse of the US dollar is keeping away bond investors.

Bond Credit Quality is crashing, as recessions lead to more defaults.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and REITS.

FOREIGN CURRENCIES

US dollar hits three year low, as the flight from America trade accelerates.

Rising rates didn’t provide any help, meaning the weakness is structural.

15 years of long dollar positions are unwinding.

The Trump economy is forcing investors to flee all US assets, including stocks and currency.

Massive cash flight is running away from the US and into Europe and China.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY).

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – Crash!

Oil crashes down an amazing $13 or down 18% in a week, from $72 to $59.

High dividend paying (XOM) has collapsed by 18%.

It is the sharpest fall in Texas tea prices since the 1991 Gulf War.

Recession fears are running rampant, and no one wants to pay for storage until a recovery which may be years off.

Sell all energy rallies.

A global recession is looming large.

Avoid all energy plays like the plague.

PRECIOUS METALS – Taking a Break

JP Morgan targets Gold at $4000 in Q2, as the “Sell America” trade gathers steam.

Gold tops $3,424, the 1980 inflation adjusted all-time high.

Interest rates seem to be no longer a factor in the gold trading, losing the opportunity cost.

Gold sees first $100 up day in history.

Natural profit taking takes gold back 5%.

Central bank buying and Chinese savings demand continues unabated with China devaluing its currency.

Keep buying all (GLD) metal dips.

REAL ESTATE – Gone Quiet

New Home Sales Jump in March. The median price of a new home sold is down 7.5% YOY thanks to greater demand for lower priced homes. Interest rates delivered a short-term dip in March which they gave back in April.

Existing Homes Sales hit 16 year low.

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell 5.9% in March to an annualized rate of 4.02 million, the weakest March since 2009.

The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2020.

Weekly mortgage demand has plunged 13%.

THE WRAP

Stocks – sell rallies

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – buy dips

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $50

Real Estate – stand aside

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, May 14, 2025

From Incline Village, NV.

Cheers

Jacquie

April 30, 2025

Jacque's Post

(THE STOCK MARKET IS HEADED HIGHER NEXT YEAR ACCORDING TO THIS SIGNAL)

April 30, 2025

Hello everyone

Have you ever heard of the Zweig Breadth Thrust?

Well, last Thursday, April 24, it was signalled.

And yes, that’s a good thing.

The Zweig Breadth Thrust was developed by legendary investor Martin Zweig. He published a major stock market newsletter in the 1970’s. He is perhaps best known for predicting Black Monday in 1987, when stocks lost over 20% in one day.

He developed the Zweig Breadth Thrust after realizing that a shift from widespread selling to buying in 10 days or less had led to significant gains over the following year.

The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24 is just the 20^th since 1945, according to Carson Investment Research. The last time we saw one was near the S&P 500’s low in November 2022.

In the past, the benchmark S&P 500 has produced gains 100% of the time one year later, with an average and median return of over 23%.

Zweig Breadth Thrusts are uncommon because they require a period of extremely broad selling immediately followed by extremely broad buying.

The measure is calculated by dividing a moving average of the number of NYSE stocks advancing by the total number of advancing plus declining stocks.

Initially, a ratio of 0.659 was considered a buy signal, while 0.366 was a sell signal. However, the indicator’s buy signal has since been modified to be when the 10-day exponential moving average of stocks rises above 61.5% after being below 40% within the past two weeks

The S&P 500 has historically delivered robust returns after a Zweig Breadth Thrust.

Not only was the S&P 500 up one year later by an average of nearly 24% following every previous occurrence, but it has also delivered impressive short- and intermediate-term results.

The average historical return over the following one, three, and six months is 5%, 8%, and 15%, with a 95%, 79%, and 100% success rate.

But the lesson here is to be cautious. Rightfully so, this signal is one to respect. But remember that stocks have retested and even made new lows in the past following them, including in 2023, when we got two signals, one in spring and the other in the fall.

Investors have plenty to be concerned about. Inflation, unemployment numbers are rising, and a decelerating (GDP). And then there is the muddy tariff landscape on top of that, which can influence people’s spending habits.

In short, a Zweig Breadth Thrust doesn’t mean we have escaped the bear just yet. Stocks often require back-filling of gains, meaning a retest or new low isn’t out of the question.

Nevertheless, the returns associated with a Zweig Breadth Thrust are undeniably encouraging for long-term investors with horizons longer than six months or one year.

BITCOIN TARGETS ACCORDING TO AN ARK STUDY

An ARK study sees Bitcoin hitting up to $2.4 million by 2030, driven by institutional inflows, nation-state adoption, and growing on-chain utility.

The analysis by the firm highlights institutional investment — spot Bitcoin ETFs in particular — as the biggest driver in the bull case, contributing 43% of total capital inflows.

ARK Invest believes that Bitcoin’s future price targets are justified by its increasing role as a global financial asset that is receiving capital inflows from numerous avenues. It’s being considered a store of value, especially in developing countries where citizens face inflation and currency devaluation.

The spread of nation-state adoption, starting with nations such as El Salvador and Bhutan, also recently announced by President Donald Trump in the U.S., reinforces the bull case ARK is assuming.

Furthermore, growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin and the growth of on-chain financial services such as the Lightning Network and WBTC are further boosting the capital potential of Bitcoin. These dynamics, Ark says, lend their forecast structural validity.

Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) is an Ethereum token that is intended to represent Bitcoin (BTC) on the Ethereum blockchain. It is not Bitcoin, but rather a separate ERC-20 token that’s designed to track Bitcoin’s value.

The journey to 2030 through this vehicle will be full of peaks and troughs – put BITCOIN in the bottom drawer and leave it alone.

Cheers

Jacquie

April 28, 2025

Jacque's Post

(THE “SELL AMERICA” THREAD HAS TAKEN HOLD)

April 28, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

MONDAY, APRIL 28

10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (April)

Earnings: Universal Health Services, Domino’s Pizza

TUESDAY, APRIL 29

8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (March)

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (February)

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller comp. 20 HPI (February)

9:30 a.m. Australia Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.4%

Forecast: 2.2%

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (April)

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (March)

Earnings: Visa, Seagate Technology Holdings, Starbucks, Mondelez International, PPG Industries, First Solar, Extra Space Storage, Caesars Entertainment, Booking Holdings, Sysco, Corning, Sherwin-Williams, Altria Group, Kraft Heinz, Coca-Cola, American Tower, Pfizer, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Royal Caribbean Group, General Motors, United Parcel Service, Honeywell International, Hilton Worldwide, PayPal

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30

8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (April)

8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q1)

8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price (Q1)

8:30 a.m. GDP first preliminary (Q1)

8:30 a.m. Chicago PMI (April)

10:00 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (March)

10:00 a.m. PCE Deflator (March)

10:00 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (March)

10:00 a.m. Personal Income (March)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales (March)

11:00 p.m. Japan Rate Decision

Previous: 0.5%

Forecast: 0.5%

Earnings: Prudential Financial, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, eBay, Qualcomm, Public Storage, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Invitation Homes, Albemarle, Aflac, Hess, yum! Brands, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Caterpillar, GE Healthcare Technologies, Stanley Black & Decker, Humana, Generac Holdings, Western Digital, Martin Marietta Materials, Automatic Data Processing

THURSDAY, MAY 1

8:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (04/19)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/26)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing final (April)

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (March)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (April)

Earnings: Apple, Motorola Solutions, Live Nation Entertainment, GoDaddy, Airbnb, Monolithic Power Systems, Amazon.com, Ingersoll Rand, DexCom, Kellanova, McDonalds, Howmet Aerospace, Hershey, Quanta Services, KKR & Co, Eli Lilly & Co, Estee Lauder Companies, Moderna, IDEXX Laboratories, CVS Health, Mastercard

FRIDAY, MAY 2

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (April)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (April)

8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (April)

8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (April)

Previous: 228k

Forecast: 130k

8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (April)

8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (April)

8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (April)

10:00 a.m. Durable Orders (March)

10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (March)

Earnings: T. Rowe Price Group, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Apollo Global Management

Since April 2, investors have been trying to see through the noise of a tariffed landscape – which has seemingly toppled the U.S. from its perceived position of power.

“Sell America” is now a theme in the macro landscape. U.S. equities have slumped, the U.S dollar has been pummelled, and bonds have sold off. This has forced investors into a rethink on the U.S. exceptionalism trade in the future.

Hiding away from the volatility is possible – diversify into a mix of short-term bonds, gold, utilities, and consumer staples. Think of stocks like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Walmart & Costco. Or you could also think about an ETF – Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC). This ETF holds Walmart & Costco. You could also look at the Swiss franc currency ETF – (FXF).

Last Friday, stocks closed out a winning week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 2.5% higher on the week. The S&P 500 was up by 4.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 6.7%.

This week will be busy with more than 180 companies in the S&P 500 set to release results. Of those, 11 companies in the Dow Industrials are expected to report, as well as four of the Magnificent Seven companies – Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.

The Mag 7 - not what they used to be –have been well and truly knocked off the top rung of the ladder – and investors would be wise to stop putting all their eggs in that one basket. While these companies are still expected to show strong earnings in 2025, mostly, the rest of the market, that is, the other 493 S&P 500 companies, are expected to post double-digit earnings growth next calendar year, catching up to the mega cap leadership.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditure price index – is expected to show the annual rate of inflation eased to 2.2% in March from 2.5% in February.

Jobs data will be one to watch this week, as it could start to show signs that the labour market is slowing. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday are projected to show the U.S. added 150,000 jobs in April, down from 209,000 previously, according to FactSet data. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index is near recent highs in the up move from the April 7^th low at 4835, breaking above resistance at 5475/85. This is a near-term positive sign and, along with positive technical data, argues for further gains. We can’t be sure yet whether this will be a pattern of limited ranging or a run back to the Feb high at 6147.

Resistance: $5640/50

Support: $5475/85 & $5350/60 & $5185/95

GOLD

Gold has fallen from the April 22 high at $3500. The market was extremely overbought, and this could be the top for at least a few weeks to a month or more. In the short term, there could be more retests towards the high before rolling over.

Resistance: $3367/77 & $3447

Support: $3305/15 & $3257/67 (recent lows) & $3218/28

BITCOIN

There has not really been much change in the big picture view over the last few months. We have seen a large bottoming taking place, with eventual gains above the Jan. peak at 109.40k expected.

The recent rally argues that the final low is likely in place. Bitcoin is now testing resistance at 95.9/96.4k, and this movement could trigger some consolidation for a week or two (not yet confirmed).

On March 17, I suggested several option trades in (IBIT) and (MSTR) that you could enter. A few of these are already in profit, and I expect the rest soon will be.

Further resistance: 98.9/99.4k

Support: 91.3/88.5k

QI CORNER

HISTORY CORNER

On April 28

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

April 25, 2025

Jacque's Post

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S APRIL 16, 2025, WEBINAR)

April 18, 2025

Hello everyone

TITLE – The Special Chaos Issue

PERFORMANCE

April +0.95 MTD

2025 year to date = +14.78%

Since inception = +766.33%

One year return = 75.65%

Average annualised return = 50.28%

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Risk On

(COST) 4/$840-$850 call spread

(TSLA) 4/$160-$170 put spread

(NFLX) 4/$800-$810 call spread

(NVDA) 4/$70- $75 call spread

Risk Off

(MSTR) 4/$340-$350 put spread

(All expired in profit this week)

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

Trump announced worst-case scenario tariffs, tanking stocks and crypto, triggering the biggest tax increase in 85 years.

Trump then cracks, announcing a 90-day delay in trade tariffs forced by the imminent collapse of global financial markets, with possible exceptions for smartphones, computers, and chips.

All asset classes are dumped, presaging global economic crisis.

Bonds have worst week in 25 years, spiking yields by 60 basis points to 4.5%

Both inflation and unemployment are about to take off like a rocket.

Recession call is still on.

US Dollar has been pummelled.

Oil crashes.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – TURMOIL

Chinese tariffs raised to 145% this evening in a US retaliation to the retaliation. China counters with 125%

Unemployment rises to 4.2%, a multi-year high – the March Nonfarm Payroll Report.

Nonfarm payrolls in March increased by 228,000 for the month, up from the revised 117,000 in February.

U.S. inflation expectations hit a 44-year high.

Consumer Price Index falls to 2.4% in March, a big drop from 2.8%.

Canadian Visitors fall 32%, in line with other forecasts of a collapse in international travel.

NFIB Business Optimism Index plunges.

JP Morgan raises recession risk to 79%

STOCKS – PANIC!

All Capital gains of the last 13 months were wiped out at market lows.

Chaos reigns supreme, with the (SPX) dropping 20% at the lows.

Volatility hits 16 16-year high at 62.

Hedge funds are still dumping technology stocks, as they still command big premiums to the main market.

Tech leads the downturn on every selloff.

All long-term technical indicators have rolled over, meaning that the bear market could continue until summer at the earliest and next year at the latest.

Delta Airlines collapses 50% on recession expectations and foreign travel fall off, pulls forward guidance.

2025 will be a down year for stocks.

Visa (V) buy any dips

Banks are good buys – PE multiples are in low teens.

BONDS – DEFAULT RISK

The Financial Crisis trade is still on, with 10-year US Treasury bonds hitting 4.6% yields.

Bonds suffer their worst sell-off in 25 years.

Foreign investors panic-sell, worried about US default or capital controls.

Collapse of the US dollar is pouring gasoline on the fire.

If countries can’t run trade surpluses with the US anymore, they don’t need to buy US bonds or dollars.

Bond Credit Quality is crashing as recessions lead to more defaults.

Junk bonds have fallen by $6.00 in a month, a massive move for this market, no doubt partially due to margin calls across all asset classes.

Avoid (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN) and REITS

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – Dead Dumping

Shrinking international trade brings a shrinking demand for the US dollar.

US dollar declines as a reserve currency in the last quarter of 2024, while the percentage of actual dollars held as reserve ticked up, IMF data showed on Monday.

The Trump economy is forcing investors to flee all US assets, including stocks and currency.

Massive cash flight is running away from the US and into Europe and China.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

ENERGY & COMMODITIES – CRASH!

Oil crashes down an amazing $13, or down 18% in a week, from $72 to $59.

High dividend-paying (XOM) has collapsed by 18%.

It is the sharpest fall in Texas tea prices since the 1919 Gulf War.

Recession fears are running rampant, and no one wants to pay for storage until a recovery, which may be years off.

Sell all energy rallies.

A global recession is looming large.

Avoid all energy plays like the plague.

PRECIOUS METALS – MELT UP

Gold hits a new all-time high, as the only flight to safety asset that is really working. My target is $5,000.

Gold sees first $100 up day in history.

Q1 gold inflows hit three-year high, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold ETF’s saw an inflow of 226.5 metric tonnes worth $21.1 billion in the first quarter.

Central bank buying and Chinese savings demand continues unabated with China devaluing its currency.

Keep buying all (GLD) metal dips.

REAL ESTATE – GREEN SHOOTS SQUASHED

Existing home prices may rise due to the tariffs, as their replacement cost has just shot up enormously.

Lumber comes from Canada, and drywall and labour come from Mexico. A recession will also drive interest rates lower.

Mortgage rates rising back to 7.1% demolish any recovery.

Pending Home Sales rise, based on signed contracts. Pending home sales decreased 3.6% from a year earlier.

Homebuilder sentiment craters to a seven-month low in March as tariffs on imported materials raised construction costs.

TRADE SHEET – THE RECESSION TRADE

Stocks – sell rallies

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – buy dips

Precious Metals – buy dips

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $50

Real Estate – stand aside

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST Wednesday, April 30, 2025

From Incline Village, NV

Cheers

Jacquie

April 23, 2025

Jacque's Post

(TRUMP WAS FORCED TO EAT HIS WORDS)

April 23, 2025

Hello everyone

President Trump has indicated that he will lower the tariffs on Chinese goods, after acknowledging that the current trade war between the world’s two largest economies cannot last.

Trump has said the tariff won’t be 0, but it won’t be anything like 145 per cent.

The IMF has forecast a significant slowdown in global growth due to Trump’s tariffs and has slashed its US growth forecast from 2.7 per cent to 1.8 per cent, due partly to the tariff program.

The IMF has also cut Australia’s 2025 growth forecast from 2.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent, a cost to the economy of about $13 billion.

IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas said the fund was not forecasting a US recession because the US economy was “coming from a position of strength.”

That position of strength will be a needed buffer over the next couple of years.

HEADLINE CORNER

American consumers and companies are likely to be the biggest tariff victims.

Travellers are avoiding the US.

Airlines see steep declines in travel to and from America.

GOLD UPDATE

You will see that gold has dropped from its record high of $3,500 yesterday.

I’m watching the price action closely, and if gold falls $400 from its peak – breaks $3100 - and you are short-term to medium-term focused, I suggest you close some gold trades/stocks.

If you are long - term focused, hold.

I will be able to give you a better update next week after I see more price action this week.

BITCOIN UPDATE

Bitcoin is $93k+ as I write this, and I am expecting it to keep rallying, as it appears to have made a bottom.

When the US stock market was tanking on Monday, Bitcoin was quietly rising and has continued to gain ground.

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, comments that more “investors seem comfortable with the view that Bitcoin is a form of ‘digital gold’ that can perform independently from equities and act as a risk-off asset during periods of uncertainty.”

Hold your position in Bitcoin and your options/stock on (MSTR) and (IBIT).

S&P500 UPDATE

The index rallied yesterday, and futures are up strongly this evening. The index may rally for the short term. ($4800 - $5500/$5700) Expect wide ranging pattern behaviour. However, I don’t believe we have seen the bottom yet. So, don’t get complacent that all is now rosy in the world.

When we do see the bottom, it will be the buying opportunity of the century.

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

WELL-BEING CORNER

A wallaby in my backyard enjoying a grassy patch in the sunshine.

Cheers

Jacquie

April 21, 2025

Jacque's Post

(WANT A HIGHLY RESILIENT STOCK DURING A RECESSION – THEN LOOK AT NETFLIX)

April 21, 2025

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, April 21

10:00 a.m. Leading Indicators (March)

Earnings: W.R. Berkley

Tuesday, April 22

8:30 a.m. Canada PPI MoM

Previous: 0.4%

Forecast: 0.5%

9:30 a.m. Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Harker speaks on Economic Mobility in Regional Economics, Philadelphia

10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (April)

Earnings: Baker Hughes, Intuitive Surgical, Enphase Energy, Capital One Financial, Tesla, Stell Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Verizon Communications, Kimberly-Clark, Genuine Parts, MSCI, Quest Diagnostics, PulteGroup, 3M, Equifax, Synchrony Financial, Elevance Health, Danaher, RTX, Northern Trust, Northrop Grumman, GE Aerospace.

Wednesday, April 23

8:00 a.m. Building Permits final (March)

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (April)

Previous: 53.5

Forecast: 51

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services preliminary (April)

10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (April)

2:00 p.m. Fed Beige Book

Earnings: ServiceNow, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Lam Research, Texas Instruments, Tyler Technologies, O’Reilly Automotive, International Business Machines, FirstEnergy, Discover Financial Services, NextEra Energy, Old Dominion Freight Line, General Dynamics, CME Group, Boston Scientific, Thermo Fisher Scientific, AT&T, Otis Worldwide, Norfolk Southern, GE Vernova, Boeing, Raymond James Financial, Philip Morris International.

Thursday, April 24

8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (March)

8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (March)

Previous: 0.9%

Forecast: 1.8%

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/19)

10:00 a.m. Existing Home Sales (March)

11:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

Earnings: Hartford Insurance Group, Eastman Chemical, T-Mobile US, Gilead Sciences, Alphabet, Intel, Comcast, Freeport-McMoRan, Union Pacific, Keurig Dr Pepper, Bristol Myers Squibb, Tractor Supply, Procter & Gamble, CBRE Group, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Hasbro, PepsiCo, PG&E, L3 Harris Technologies, Ameriprise Financial.

Friday, April 25

2:00 a.m. UK Retail Sales

Previous: 1.0%

Forecast: -0.3%

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (April)

Earnings: Schlumberger, Phillips 66, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Centene, AbbVie, Abbott Laboratories.

A Bunker Worthy Stock

One company that we might be able to hide away from all the angst in the world now is Netflix (NFLX). Its business is booming and appears well-protected from any economic headwinds.

It has a goal of reaching $1 trillion in market capitalization by 2030, and that seems reasonable. It looks like the streaming giant is poised to benefit whether the U.S. goes into recession.

Netflix’s earnings were better than expected. It has a market cap of $416.2 billion, based on FactSet.

The company expects to double its advertising revenue growth in 2025 after it launched its advertising-backed service in the U.S. on April 1. The second quarter will see an international build-up.

Even with the price increases in the U.S., Netflix has not reported any downgrades or defections, and that is certainly a sign of strength and resilience.

Many analysts, including Oppenheimer and Pivotal Research, have price targets of $1,200 or even $1,450.

Netflix (NFLX) $973.03 – April 17, 2025

In the chart above, you can see a clear flag pattern has formed. Additionally, you can also notice there is a clear divergence as shown on the MACD. Plus, we see that the stock has come down to test the 200-day MA, (not quite reaching it) and bounced strongly.

The Jumpy Bond Market

I don’t care what side of the political fence you sit on, a bond market under pressure commands attention.

Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates, but Powell has made it clear that the Fed would put US interest rates on hold until the impact of Trump’s trade policies became clearer. When that happens, Powell might be forced to choose between prioritising fighting higher inflation or rising unemployment in a slowing economy.

Trump is under the belief that he can oust the Fed Governor. But any attempt to sack Powell would surely set off a backlash from financial markets because it would damage the Fed’s credibility as an independent, non-political central bank.

Were the White House to exert influence over the Fed, the implications would most probably be that US monetary policies would become more stimulative and inflationary, and the US economic cycle more volatile.

And then think about what would happen to the US bond market and the dollar. The US dollar, as the world’s reserve currency, and the haven of the US bond market, could both be at risk from Trump’s attacks on Powell and his trade war on everyone.

Trump’s policymaking is erratic and has induced enormous day-to-day volatility within financial markets. The markets are, on any day, at risk of another downward spiral in response to an unexpected Trump social media post.

Dollar weakness shows a wave of funds leaving the US to what are believed to be more stable jurisdictions such as Japan, Germany, and Switzerland.

If that dollar depreciation and capital flight were sustained, they would have implications for the US government’s massive refinancing tasks this year.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

The index is showing a choppy pattern behaviour. Volatility will be with us for a while. In the short term there is scope for more weakness back toward the base = part of larger period of ranging.

Resistance: 5345/5485/5525

Support: 5210/5150/4800/35 area

GOLD

Gold just keeps making new highs, reaching $3358 on April 17^th. Market is overbought, but still no evidence in the patterns that a top is forming yet. Bias is therefore to the upside.

Resistance: $3357/$3396/$3420

Support: $3281/$3242/$3165

BITCOIN

We will be beset with more ranging behaviour over the near term as part of the larger bottoming, and with eventual gains above that Jan. peak at 109~ thereafter.

As I have already suggested, there is still some scope for a retest or even a slight break of the April 7^th low at 74.4k, before the larger upside is seen. (My research is saying we could go as low as 67k).

Resistance: 85.8/86.3/92/93k (If we can close & hold above 86, we may have seen the low).

Support: ~80.5

HISTORY CORNER

On April 21

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie