Jacque's Post Archives

November 18, 2024

Jacque's Post

(TRUMP AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER: THE WEST LOOKS OUT OF FAVOUR)

November 18, 2024

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Nov. 18

10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (November)

7:30 p.m. Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Previous: N/A

Forecast: N/A

Tuesday Nov. 19

8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate

Previous: 1.6%

Forecast: 1.9%

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (October)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (October)

Earnings: Walmart, Lowe’s Companies

Wednesday Nov. 20

2.00 a.m. UK Inflation Rate

Previous: 1.7%

Forecast: 2.2%

Earnings: Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, TJX, Target

Thursday Nov. 21

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (11/09)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (11/16)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (November)

10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (October)

10 a.m. Leading Indicators (October)

11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

6:30 p.m. Japan Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.5%

Forecast: 2.2%

Earnings: Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere

Friday Nov. 22

2:00 a.m. UK Retail Sales

Previous: 0.3%

Forecast: -0.3%

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (November)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing (November)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services (November)

10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (November)

IN BRIEF

Global inflation data takes over the economic calendar this week, with critical readings from Canada, Japan, and the UK set to influence currency movements. Market sentiment appears increasingly contrarian, with traders taking positions against the dollar’s strength despite its continued upward momentum. Nvidia reports this week, and investors will be watching keenly to see if the company can continue its stellar earnings journey.

Trump & Geopolitics

Come January 20, when Trump is inaugurated, we are likely to see a new world soon after – one that is quite unlike what many of us had envisaged.

Blinken states that China, Iran, and North Korea have backed Putin, and this shows that they are issuing a systemic challenge to the international order the US has led and policed since 1945, especially since 1991.

Blinken argues that if Trump leans on Ukraine to bow to Putin’s territorial and geopolitical aggression, the principles that have undergirded the international order under ‘Pax Americana ‘will be gravely abridged. That question is one prompted by Trump’s rhetoric and previous behaviour.

Trump’s attitude to NATO does not bode well for trans-Atlantic relations or European security. His remarks about Taiwan have raised concerns he might seek to cut a deal with China that would leave Taiwan stranded in a difficult situation.

Trump’s approach to Iran is yet to be clarified, and in relation to AUKUS, we don’t yet know how high this sits on Trump’s priorities.

The new world could be a little disconcerting, to say the least.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500 – At a crossroads

The recent $6,017 high could count as a Wave 5 high. We will only realize that with some confidence if we see a strong break below $5,697, which would then risk a sell-off back toward $5,400 over coming weeks en route to around $5,100.

If this bull market, which has thus far run for just over two years, is to extend further (both in Price & Time), then we would ideally need to see the key support at $5,697 maintained and intact.

GOLD – Correction in progress

We are in a Wave 4 correction presently in Gold. It will probably take the form of a zigzag appearance, thereby forming an ABC pattern. The c wave may find a low around the low $2,400’s or the high $2,300’s. New highs in Gold may not be reached until next year.

BITCOIN – Uptrend in progress

Bitcoin has continued its rally since bottoming at $49,577 on August 5^th.

Support: mid $80,000’s

Target: $100,000

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

Disney (DIS), General Motors (GM)

On June 21, 2024, I recommended subscribers buy LEAPS on Disney (DIS) ($105/$110 June 2025).

At the time, the stock was $101.52.

And if you didn’t do options, you could have bought the stock.

Last Friday, the stock closed at $115.08.

For those who bought the LEAPS, please check your position. There is still time left in this trade, but if you have a good profit, you can take the money off the table.

On May 15, 2024, I recommended subscribers buy LEAPS on General Motors (GM) ($50/$60 June 2025)

At the time, the stock was priced at $45.03.

And if you didn’t do options, you could have bought the stock.

Last Friday, the stock closed at $57.04.

For those that bought the LEAPS, please check your position.

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Scientists have been discussing ways to make Mars habitable for humans for several decades. One process that may be a possibility is a large-scale transformation of its planetary environment to become more Earth-like – a process known as terraforming. Extensive geological evidence indicates that Mars once had a much thicker atmosphere and a warmer climate that allowed liquid water to flow across its surface. In this sense, terraforming would represent an effort to turn back the clock of planetary time to return Mars to a warmer, wetter world.

CURIOUS QUESTION CORNER

Which creature would be most likely to RULE Earth should all humans die, according to scientists?

Answer: Octopuses

World-leading experts claim the eight-limbed creatures are primed to become the dominant force on Earth should humanity die out.

In the event of a wipeout through either wars or climate change, the marine invertebrates are said to possess the ‘physical and mental attributes necessary’ to evolve into the next civilization-building species.

Professor Tim Coulson of the University of Oxford said their ‘dexterity, curiosity, ability to communicate with each other, and supreme intelligence’ means they could create complex tools to build a vast Atlantis-like civilisations underwater.

Cheers

Jacquie

November 15, 2024

Jacque's Post

(CHINA’S TENTACLES OF INFLUENCE ARE GROWING IN SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS & IN LATIN AMERICA)

November 15, 2024

Hello everyone

Building a multipolar world

Chinese President Xi Jinping has moved to gain more economic allies across the Asia- Pacific after arriving at a regional summit in Peru with a pledge to build a “multipolar” world, seizing on growing anxiety about the rise of Donald Trump to the United States presidency.

The message highlights China’s growing power at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit when the country is investing billions of dollars across the region, challenging the US for primacy.

Xi comments that “the world is undergoing faster transformation unseen in a century…and humanity has again come to a crossroads in history.”

While Xi did not name Trump, his statement comes as APEC leaders prepare for the incoming US president to act on his vow to impose 60 per cent tariffs on China and 20 per cent tariffs on other countries.

Australia’s Prime Minister, Albanese, said the Chinese investment would be an opportunity for Australia.

But JP Morgan Chase chief executive, Jamie Dimon, (who was also at the summit) sent out a warning signal of the challenges facing Trump when he assumes office on January 20.

“The most important thing is, whoever had been elected…they are entering and could be responsible for the most complicated geopolitical, military and geo-economic situation that the world has faced since World War II.”

On the sidelines of Xi’s visit – and after five years of construction - Xi will have the honor of inaugurating a massive deep-water port in the Peruvian coastal town of Chancay that is set to redefine trade between China and Latin America. At a cost of $3.5 billion, state-owned China Ocean Shipping Company Limited (COSCO) developed one of China’s most high-profile and controversial infrastructure projects.

QI CORNER

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

(For subscribers who own the stock)

Take profits in XPENG (XPEV) STOCK.

SELL THE STOCK.

We bought Xpeng (XPEV) at $ 10.05 on March 15, 2024

We are now selling the stock at $ 12.63 or best price on November 15, 2024.

Trump’s policies and China’s economic issues cloud the future earnings potential of the EV maker. Better to take the money off the table.

Profit = $2.58 or 26.16%

CURIOUS QUESTION CORNER

What creature do scientists think will rule Earth should all humans die?

Answer in Monday’s Post.

Cheers

Jacquie

November 13, 2024

Jacque's Post

(CRYPTO MINERS CATCH-UP AS BITCOIN RALLIES)

November 13, 2024

Hello everyone

Crypto Miners will power ahead as Bitcoin rallies

Bitcoin has been rallying strongly since Trump secured the Presidency.

Bitcoin recently broke out of the flag pattern that has been forming for the past year and has rocketed to the upside.

I have been recommending a small portfolio allocation into Bitcoin and related crypto stocks for over a year now.

With Bitcoin consistently reaching new records since Election Day – a trend that is likely to continue through next year – crypto miners could start to play catch-up.

The buying opportunity is here for Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin miners are among the best investment vehicles for investors to express their bullish outlook on Bitcoin.

CleanSpark is up nearly 50% year to date.

Among the diversified miners, TeraWulf has soared 246% in the same period, and Core Scientific (CORZ) has rallied 407%. (I recommended (CORZ) on August 7 this year at the price of $9.71). It is now just over $17.00.

Core Scientific Weekly Chart (CORZ)

The promises made by Trump in his campaign included keeping all bitcoin mined in the U.S.

The previous administration thwarted the crypto industry as it attempted to mandate energy surveys on miners and proposed a 30% excise tax on them.

Private Prison Operators See a Big Move

We can understand Tesla and Bitcoin moving up strongly. Tesla can almost be seen as a sector on its own. But let’s dive into Prison Operators and see what their move is all about.

Shares in the leading publicly traded prison firms GEO Group and CoreCivic have jumped roughly 70% since November 4.

The gains point to the big opportunity investors see for private prison operators as Trump vows to round up and deport millions of migrants.

Trump’s first actions as president have been focused on assembling the team in charge of immigration policy, a signal it is likely to be a priority.

While Trump’s immigration policy may be sound for private prisons, it may not be good for the economy. The housing, agriculture, and hospitality industries rely on migrants to fill laboring jobs. Without that labour pool, the U.S. could see labour shortages, and higher wages, an environment that would not be conducive to helping remedy the housing shortage.

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

The Australian Government has become a big spender on quantum computing, outcompeting private capital in hopes to make Australia a world leader.

In the past 18 months, there has been a $470 million investment into PsiQuantum, matched by Queensland, a company that promises to deliver the world’s first “utility-scale” quantum computer from its Brisbane headquarters.

Global consultancy McKinsey has estimated the sector could be worth trillions within the next decade, with particular applications for problem-solving in the sciences and powering navigation and communication tools.

The first “State of Australian Quantum” report says Australia’s own quantum industry will be worth a projected $6 billion and employ 19,400 Australians by 2045.

Earlier this year, QuintessenceLabs, announced a US partnership to provide “quantum-safe cybersecurity” to government agencies.

As of August this year, there were at least 53 facilities and laboratories researching quantum technology in Australia and 38 quantum businesses headquartered in Australia.

QUIRKY CORNER

Cheers

Jacquie

November 11, 2024

Jacque's Post

(THE TRUMP TRADE 2.0)

November 11, 2024

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday Nov. 11

6:30 a.m. Australia Consumer Confidence

Previous: 89.8

Forecast: 89.5

Tuesday Nov. 12

2:00 a.m. UK Unemployment Rate

Previous: 4%

Forecast: 4.1%

6:00 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (October)

5:00 p.m. Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Harker speaks at Carnegie Mellon University

Earnings: Occidental Petroleum, Live Nation Entertainment, Tyson Foods, Home Depot, Mosaic.

Wednesday Nov. 13

8:30 a.m. US Inflation Rate

Previous: 2.4%

Forecast: 2.6%

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (October)

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (October)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (October)

2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget NSA (October)

Earnings: Cisco Systems

Thursday Nov. 14

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (11/02)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (11/09)

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (October)

6:50 p.m. Japan GDP Growth

Previous: 0.8%

Forecast: 0.2%

Earnings: Applied Materials, Walt Disney

Friday Nov. 15

8:30 a.m. US Retail Sales

Previous: 0.4%

Forecast: 0.3%

8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October)

8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (October)

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (November)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (October)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (October)

9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (October)

10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (September)

Earnings: Progressive

THE WORLD ACCORDING TO TRUMP

Tax Cuts, Tariffs, Deregulation & Deportation

U.S. Equities

Sector Rotation: Financials, industrials, and energy stocks may benefit from tax cuts & deregulation & small caps could outperform due to Trump’s pro-domestic agenda.

Value Over Growth: Value & cyclical stocks likely to lead over growth sectors as focus on traditional industries & manufacturing.

Tech & Telecom: Tax cuts may support capital spending.
Antitrust scrutiny could weigh on large tech firms.

With Deregulation Innovation Likely to Thrive

Autonomous Mobility

Healthcare

Digital Assets

Fixed Income

Rising Yields: Treasury yields have climbed, led by real rates & nominal yields.

Short-Duration Preference: Long rates up, investors favor shorter maturities, particularly in high-yield debt, as risk sentiment rebounds.

U.S. Dollar

Strengthening Trend: A strong dollar driven by yield differentials & trade policies may challenge emerging markets reliant on dollar-denominated debt.

Commodities

Energy: Oil & Gas poised for gains from deregulation & U.S. production expansion. More industrial expansion = the need for more lithium, copper & silver.

Gold & Metals: Gold prices softened on risk appetite but may stabilize amid potential geopolitical risks. U.S. metals production benefits from fewer regulatory restrictions.

Factors stronger than Trump will keep driving the gold rally.

Central bank buying, the Brics, De-dollarization.

Real Estate

REIT Headwinds: Rising rates could pressure rate-sensitive sectors like REITS, but strong growth could mitigate some effects.

Emerging Markets & Global Equities

Emerging Markets at Risk: Higher U.S. rates & a strong dollar pose challenges to emerging market debt & currencies, particularly in Asia & Latin America.

Global Trade Impacts: Non-U.S. companies face trade headwinds, with auto & manufacturing hubs in Europe & Asia at risk from tariffs. Deals could counter-tariffs

Policy & Fiscal Implications

Corporate Tax Cuts: Anticipated tax cuts would

Benefit U.S. competitiveness but increase deficits.

Tariffs: Intensification of tariffs on China & possibly Europe. Mexico & other EM currencies pressure from U.S. manufacturing policies.

Regulatory Rollbacks: Energy & financial sectors may see deregulation. Includes potential rollbacks on emissions standards & banking regulations.

Deficit Expansion: Fiscal stimulus combined with tax cuts could expand deficits – growth could offset some debt pressures.

Rates & Inflation Dynamics

Higher Rates Likely: Nominal rates on the 10-year Treasury may range from 4.2% to 4.75%, driven by fiscal expansion. Inflation fears remain subdued, but the Fed may adjust rate cut trajectory due to pro-growth policies.

Geopolitical Risks

China Trade Relations: Tariffs impact China, affecting global supply chains. Europe’s manufacturing sector could similarly face pressure.

Energy Shift: U.S. energy independence initiatives may shift global energy dynamics, affecting OPEC & other oil producers.

Defense & national security – secure the borders & protect the homeland and the U.S. way of life. Help those countries who are prepared to help themselves.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500 – Uptrend extension.

We are still in a Wave 5, and it is extending, so instead of a Wave 4 decline and then a resumption of uptrend, we appear to be rallying straight up without a retracement.

Targets: 6400+

Near term target: ~6200

GOLD - Correction

Gold is correcting ahead of its next rally onto new all-time highs.

Support = $2,670/$2,640 & $2,600

Targets: $2,850, $3,000

BITCOIN - Rallying

Strong uptrend in progress. New highs for the year.

Support =$75,300, $73,600

Targets = $90,000, $97, 780

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

November 8, 2024

Jacque's Post

(SUMMARY OF JOHN’S NOVEMBER 6, 2024, WEBINAR)

November 8, 2024

Hello everyone

TITLE

Trading One Uncertainty for Another

ELECTION OUTCOMES

John says you lose the entire interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy

Higher inflation

Higher interest rates

Much higher national debt

Govt. shutdowns on Dem house win

Less regulation – full self-driving in US

No environmental control

Accelerated global warming

Extreme labour shortages at low-end hitting agriculture, restaurants, and construction

Democratic control of Congress in 2026

Ukraine withdrawal

Taiwan at risk

Retreat from international commitments

More concentration of wealth at the top

Earlier stock market top

Earlier recession

Earlier stock market crash

All antitrust actions cease

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Winners

Energy

Financials

Crypto

Tesla

Health Insurance

Vladimir Putin

Losers

All interest rate plays

All Bonds

Housing

Real Estate

Construction

TRADE ALERT PERFORMANCE

November +0.30%

Since inception +729.97%

Average annualised return = +51.62%

Trailing One Year Return = +65.56%

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

(JPM) 11/$195/$205 call spread 10%

(NVDA) 12 $117/$120 call spread 10%

(GLD) 12 $235/$240 call spread 10%(Trade closed/Stopped out).

THE METHOD TO MY MADNESS

On Wednesday, we flip from one type of risk to another.

All interest rate plays looking at big sell-offs as John sees it.

US dollar hits one-year high.

Technology stocks still attractive for long term.

Stand by and wait for the initial election euphoria to pass.

Energy rallies on deregulation, but not oil supply.

Wait patiently now to see where the money flows.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY – SURE THING

Nonfarm payroll collapses at 12,000, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000.

The headline unemployment rate held at 4.1% in line with expectations.

The BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, while hurricanes also likely held back the total.

It makes a 25-bps interest rate cut on Wednesday a sure thing.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Rose in September, up 0.3%, which remains above the central bank’s target.

Q3 GDP comes in weak, with real gross domestic product grew at a hardy 2.8%.

Consumer Sentiment hits 6-month high.

STOCKS – POST ELECTION MELT UP ARRIVES

Money Market Funds see massive pre-election inflows as investors seek to avoid promised post-election violence.

Nvidia tops $3.5 trillion as shares hit a new all-time high at $144.45. It looks like it’s on a run to $150, then $160.

Apple iPhone Sales are lagging, according to a leading analyst, with a drop in 10 million orders expected, down to 84 million units.

McDonald's kills two in E. Coli Outbreak, linked to quarter pounders. Avoid (MCD).

Hedge Funds ramping up risk going into the election with more equity leverage in their portfolios than they had in the beginning of the year, indicating higher risk appetite.

IMF cuts Global Growth Forecast, seeing wars and protectionism posing threats to expansion.

BONDS – ELECTION PLAY

Bonds plunge anticipating a Trump win, with the (TLT) down $10 from the recent high.

If he does win, expect another $10 decline to $82. If Harris wins, expect a $10 rally.

This is the best election trade out there.

It’s a choice between Harris, who will increase the deficit by $2.5 trillion, or Trump, who will increase it by $15 trillion.

Either way, the bond market loses.

Bond Yields soar above 4.32% yield, on fears of massive deficit spending by a future Donald Trump. Estimates of his deficits over four years go as high as $15 trillion.

Buy (TLT), (JNK), (NLY), (SLRN), and REITS on this dip.

FOREIGN CURRENCIES – US DOLLAR REBORN

Dollar hits two-month high on rising US interest rates. Ten-year Treasuries have risen from 3.55% to 4.35%.

Harris rise in the polls is killing the US dollar as the prospect of falling interest rates improves.

Lower interest rates make the US dollar much less attractive to traders and investors.

This may be the last chance to sell short the US dollar at a high price.

The long-term downtrend in the dollar is still intact.

There is no way the dollar can stand up to cuts down to 3.5% by summer.

Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (FXC), and (FXY)

ENERGY AND COMMODITIES – OIL CRASH

Oil crashes 5% as the Israeli retaliation on Iran avoided oil facilities.

Fusion is going commercial in San Francisco with a German company, Focused Energy.

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has new nuclear move, sending all stock plays into a tailspin.

It’s a great opportunity to buy (CCJ) and (VST) on the dip.

PRECIOUS METALS – NEW HIGHS

Silver and Gold – consolidating until a post-election upside breakout to new all-time highs.

The white metal is a predictor of a healthy recovery and a solar rebound.

Newmont Mining dives 7% after missing Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit.

Money pours into Gold ETF’s taking gold up to new highs, at $2,761 an ounce, as hedge funds pour in.

Seasonals for the barbarous relic are now the most positive of the year.

Gold holding up in the face of big interest rate rises shows it only wants to go up.

Escalation of Middle East war is very pro-gold.

Buy (GLD), (SLV), (AGQ), and (WPM) on dips.

REAL ESTATE – PRE-ELECTION FREEZE

Virtually all real estate transactions have ceased over pre-election fears.

But they will resume on any post-election fall in interest rates.

Pending Home Sales jump 7.4% on a signed contract basis, the highest since March.

New Home Sales Jump 4.1% in September at 738,000 seasonally adjusted unit on a signed contract basis

The median home price rose to $426,300.

This despite a roller coaster month on interest rates, falling to 6.0% for the 30-year, then jumping back up to 7.0%.

Existing Home Sales drop 1% in September, a 14-year low, down to 3.84 million units annualized.

TRADE SHEET

Stocks – stand aside

Bonds – stand aside

Commodities – stand aside

Currencies – stand aside

Precious Metals – stand aside

Energy – stand aside

Volatility – sell over $30

Real estate – stand aside

NEXT STRATEGY WEBINAR

12:00 EST WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20

From Lake Tahoe, Nevada

Cheers

Jacquie

November 6, 2024

Jacque's Post

(WALL STREETS GIVES THE LOWDOWN ON STOCKS/SECTORS UNDER A HARRIS OR TRUMP WIN)

November 6, 2024

Hello everyone.

It’s November 5 - election day. Early numbers point to a Republican win. But it is the swing states that will decide who is the next President of the U.S.

So, we wait.

But, whoever wins, we need to know what stocks/sectors will benefit under each party and why.

It’s 9:45 p.m. Pacific time and the race for the Presidency is very close. The outcome will be consequential for markets on many fronts, including dictating policies that could damage or assist different industries, as well as tax and spending plans that will influence the direction of interest rates and the U.S. dollar.

A Trump win is seen as positive for financials, given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. UBS argued that investment banks would outperform from more mergers and acquisitions across the sector. UBS’s top picks for a Trump presidency win include Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Citizens Financial.

Goldman Sachs analysts see a GOP sweep resulting in the S&P500 rallying 3%. By way of contrast, the bank sees a Democratic sweep sparking a 3% sell-off for the benchmark. Smaller stocks, the bank believes, are also seen as beneficiaries of a Trump win.

One of the sectors that could see major disruption after the election is energy.

If Harris wins, she is expected to preserve the Inflation Reduction Act, which has boosted a transition into renewable energy. But the IRA passed without GOP support, so if Trump wins, he could repeal it. Stocks to keep an eye on here include: SolarEdge Technologies, Enphase Energy, First Solar, and Invesco Solar ETF (TAN).

Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency.

Investors should keep an eye on giants like Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

And a Trump presidency would be uber bullish for Tesla, which could see the stock jump very quickly towards $300.

But what about retail stocks?

Trump has talked a lot about tariffs. He is proposing 10%-20% tariffs on most imports, and some levies may be as high as 60%+ for China. Target may have a tough time under a harsher tariff regime.

Harris’s policy may mirror the Biden administration.

And small caps. How would they fare?

Under a Trump presidency, they may be a major winner, given the former president’s willingness to roll back regulation and cut tax rates further for companies.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was up more than 10% for the year.

So, now to crypto. Trump has signaled his support for the industry in his campaign. A Trump presidency would probably see digital currencies such as bitcoin scale to new heights due to a more favourable regulatory regime.

A Harris administration, however, is not seen as favourable for crypto.

Stocks to watch here include Coinbase and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which has rallied 30% over the past three months. And don’t forget Bitcoin and ether, which you can purchase through a crypto exchange.

The U.S. dollar started to rally early in the evening yesterday as early voting started to lean toward the Republicans. Protectionist policies such as tariffs under the Trump administration would boost the dollar. But, some investment banks, such as UBS, think this move is only temporary and believe that investors should use these periods of strength to diversify dollar exposure toward other G10 currencies.

They argue that the dollar is overvalued and has a smaller yield advantage over other currencies, and the US’s significant twin fiscal and current account deficits are likely to weigh on the currency regardless of who takes the Presidency.

It's now just after midnight, and DOW Futures are up over 800 points. Looks like there will be a strong rally in the markets on Wednesday, as Trump is expected to take the Presidency.

Thank you to all those who attended my monthly Zoom meeting yesterday. We had a great discussion after the presentation. Thank you, too, to those who gave me suggestions for future newsletter topics. The recording will be sent out to everyone after it has been edited.

Gold and Silver have retraced after a strong move to the upside, so if you want to scale in or add weight to your precious metal holdings, now is a good time to do so. You could also use LEAPS as an alternative to scaling into stocks, or you could do both.

(GLD), (GOLD), (GDX), (WPM), (SLV), (AGQ)

I would also be looking at scaling into Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Tesla (TSLA). You could also add LEAPS one year out as an alternative or do both.

Cheers

Jacquie

November 4, 2024

Jacque's Post

(A MUCH-HYPED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION & CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS MAY INFLUENCE MARKET PRICE ACTION THIS WEEK)

November 4, 2024

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Nov. 4

10 a.m. Durable Orders final (September)

10 a.m. Factory Orders (September)

10:30 p.m. Australia Rate Decision

Previous: 4.35%

Forecast: 4.35%

Earnings: Marriott International, Diamondback Energy, Wynn Resorts, Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors NV

Tuesday, Nov. 5

8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (September)

9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (October)

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services final (October)

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (October)

Events: U.S. Presidential election

Earnings: Marathon Petroleum, Yum! Brands, Microchip Technology, Super Micro Computer.

Wednesday, Nov. 6

10:00 p.m. China Trade Balance

Previous: $81.7B

Forecast: $73.5B

Earnings: CVS Health, Howmet Aerospace, Albemarle, Qualcomm, Gilead Sciences, Take-Two Interactive Software, Marathon Oil, Match Group.

Thursday, Nov. 7

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (10/26)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (11/02)

8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q3)

8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q3)

10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (September)

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting

Previous: 5.00%

Forecast: 4.75%

3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (September)

Earnings: PG&E, Moderna, Molson Coors Beverage, Halliburton, Tapestry, The Hershey Co., Ralph Lauren, Warner Bros. Discovery, Airbnb, Axon Enterprise, Expedia Group, Akamai Technologies, Fortinet.

Friday, Nov. 8

8:30 a.m. Canada Unemployment Rate

Previous: 6.5%

Forecast: 6.5%

10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (November)

Earnings: Paramount Global

I’m sure I don’t need to inform you that this week is packed with high-impact market events.

The U.S. election all day Tuesday is sure to garner attention, but I think the subject has been talked to death, and people just need some space and quiet to think now. I mean, what more can be said? Either Trump will win, or Harris will win. The question is, what happens in the Senate/House? I have heard all different people saying that if one or the other wins, the market will crash. Well, let’s wait and see. After all, the market usually rallies in the final months of the year during a presidential election year.

Last week, the US$ pushed higher, shrugging off a weak October jobs report that was likely impacted by hurricanes and ongoing labour strikes. Markets seemed to ignore these temporary disruptions. Inflation numbers came in right on target, and now traders are all but certain we’ll see a 25-point rate cut from the Fed on Thursday.

A similar outcome is expected from the Bank of England, which is also to be announced on Thursday.

MARKET UPDATE

S&P500

Markets are looking interesting.

It is possible to interpret that we are close to a top in the markets and could soon be entering a Wave 4 pullback. We have had a two-year bull market, and risk is rising for a broad corrective pullback. Further price evidence is required to add confidence to this scenario. Last month, the market reached 5,878.

Of course, with the uncertainty of the election out of the way, we could get a sharp upside rally to around 6,200 before we see this Wave 4 pullback take place.

Either way, if you are holding stocks and want to take some profits off the table, now is the time to do it. (You could take half off and let the other half run). (Don’t be worried about catching the last moves in this rally). Likewise, if you are holding any January 2025 LEAPS, take profits now. That way, you can be cashed up to re-enter the market near the base of the Wave 4 decline. (Note that Buffett has been selling big parcels of stock for the last couple of months, as have many other large companies & funds).

And if we do get that sharp rally to the upside, you could also think about buying a few puts at that time on the SPX or buy SDS.

Possible downside target for a Wave 4 decline is around 5,120.

GOLD

Gold reached a high of $2,790 last week. We are now seeing a short-term correction. (If you have a good profit on your gold LEAPS, and they expire in the first half of 2025, you could take half off here and let the other half run). My advice is if you own LEAPS that are a spread – have two legs – then don’t run them to near expiration. Take profits sooner.

Gold can still extend toward the $3000 area over the coming weeks.

Support = ~ $2,700/$2,680

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has just fallen short of making a new high for the year. It now lies at an interesting juncture.

To hold its uptrend from the $49,577 low of early August, support at $66,700/$65,000 should now hold. If this doesn’t hold, we could see a greater decline towards the $50k area. If you look at the Daily Bitcoin chart, you can now see a rectangle pattern set up, where the recent top ($73,600) caps the upside and the $49,577 low caps the downside. Time will show us how the price action will unfold.

QI CORNER

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

Cheers

Jacquie

November 1, 2024

Jacque's Post

(DIGITAL GOLD – WHAT’S IT ALL ABOUT?)

November 1, 2024

Hello everyone

DEFINITION

Digital gold represents a modern evolution in precious metal investments, bridging traditional assets and innovative technology. In other words, it’s a way to invest in gold electronically. As a digital counterpart to physical gold, it enables investors to engage with gold markets online, eliminating challenges related to storage and security.

HOW DO YOU BUY/SELL DIGITAL GOLD?

The process of buying and selling digital gold involves a series of straightforward steps facilitated through online platforms or apps.

To buy gold digitally, users must create and verify an account and fund it using net banking or mobile wallets.

Once the account is funded, users specify the amount of digital gold they wish to purchase, enabling them to buy gold or buy gold online.

The platform will display the current market rate, and the equivalent physical gold will be securely stored in insured vaults.

When selling digital gold, users simply log in to their account, view the current market rate, and confirm the sale. The funds from the sale are then credited to their bank account. Users who prefer to receive physical gold can submit a redemption request, which may incur additional charges.

This entire process ensures a transparent and secure investment experience, providing peace of mind to investors. Moreover, an investor who buys and sells electronic gold enjoys enhanced liquidity and flexibility while also benefiting from the assurance of limited supply.

DIGITAL GOLD & TANGIBLE GOLD: THE DIFFERENCES

Physical and digital gold differ significantly in ownership, storage, and transaction methods. Digital gold allows investors to purchase virtual units backed by actual gold stored in secure vaults, with taxation and investment aspects including tax rates on selling, holding time for long-term capital gains, and benefits as an efficient and safe alternative to traditional physical gold purchases. This approach offers the convenience of online transactions, with the value directly tied to the market price of physical gold.

Physical gold ownership involves direct possession of tangible items such as gold coins, gold bars, or jewelry, requiring secure storage and physical handling. Both options serve as viable investments; digital gold provides enhanced convenience and ease of transaction, while physical gold offers a tangible asset that some investors may prefer for diversification.

BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN DIGITAL GOLD ASSETS

Investing in digital gold offers several advantages over physical gold. One significant benefit is greater convenience; investors can purchase gold online without the need to store it physically. This eliminates the challenges and costs associated with storage, insurance, and transportation.

Gold mutual funds investors can also benefit from digital gold, which provides a way to diversify their portfolios without requiring physical ownership.

Digital gold platforms also allow for fractional ownership, enabling investors to build their holdings even with smaller amounts of money. This feature increases accessibility for a broader range of investors.

Digital gold is highly liquid, allowing for quick conversion to cash, which is often more cumbersome than physical gold, which requires finding buyers.

Transaction costs for digital gold are generally lower than those for physical gold. Since digital gold is often linked to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or gold mutual funds, it provides transparency and real-time tracking. This is particularly beneficial for investors looking to mitigate market volatility and ensure a trustworthy investment process.

DISADVANTAGES OF INVESTING IN DIGITAL GOLD

Investing in digital gold offers numerous advantages, but it’s important to consider the accompanying disadvantages. Unlike physical gold, digital gold lacks tangibility, potentially leading to a less satisfying experience for some investors. (Some people just like that security of holding a piece of gold). On the other hand, physical gold investment often carries an emotional value and can have different taxation considerations.

Buying digital gold exposes investors to cybersecurity risks, as the security of digital gold holding depends on the robustness of the issuing platform. (That’s why I always recommend transferring your digital assets to a decentralized wallet for safekeeping).

While accumulating digital gold is relatively easy, platform fees and transaction charges may affect overall returns. Furthermore, digital gold holdings may face limitations on investment amounts and acceptance, distinguishing them from physical gold in terms of utility. You may also want to consider exploring gold futures contracts, which offer a different approach to trading precious metals.

BEST PLATFORMS TO USE FOR DIGITAL GOLD TRADING

You can buy and sell digital gold in the United States on several reputable online platforms and mobile apps. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase and specialized digital gold providers such as Paxos, Uphold, Gold Money, and Vaulted offer blockchain-based digital gold products.

These platforms allow investors to add digital gold to their portfolios seamlessly. Each unit of digital gold is backed by physical metal stored in insured vaults, ensuring it remains a solid store of value. Investors purchase tokens representing specific amounts of precious metals, enabling secure and transparent digital transactions.

This approach offers a reliable way to incorporate digital gold into diversified investment strategies.

SECURE STORAGE SOLUTIONS FOR DIGITAL GOLD HOLDINGS

The physical gold bullion supporting digital gold holdings is stored in highly secure, insured, and audited vaults managed by reputable companies such as MMTC-PAMP and Safe Gold. These vaulting facilities employ advanced security systems to ensure the utmost safety and integrity of the stored physical gold.

Security measures include:

Armed guards: Ensuring constant vigilance and immediate response to threats.
Biometric access controls: Restricting access to only authorized personnel.
CCTV surveillance: Offering 24/7 monitoring to deter and document any unauthorized activities.
Theft prevention: Utilizing state-of-the-art technology to safeguard digital assets.
Unauthorized access prevention: Implementing multi-layered security protocols to prevent breaches.

These insured vaults undergo regular audits to maintain transparency and trust in the system, providing investors with peace of mind when they accumulate digital gold.

BLOCKCHAIN & ENCRYPTION

Blockchain technology underpins the recording and security of all transactions involving digital gold, ensuring an immutable and transparent distributed ledger. Digital gold platforms utilize advanced encryption and cryptographic techniques to safeguard user data and digital wallets. These methods prevent hacking and maintain the integrity of ownership records, thereby fostering a high level of trust and reliability.

Immutable records: Transactions are permanent and unchangeable.
Data protection: Advanced encryption secures user information.
Hacking prevention: Security measures block unauthorized access.
Reliable ownership: Precise records of digital gold ownership are maintained.
Secure storage: Digital wallets provide a safe repository for digital gold.

CONVERTING DIGITAL GOLD TO PHYSICAL GOLD BULLION

You can convert your digital gold holdings into physical gold through reputable digital gold platforms, as physical gold remains a tangible investment option. These platforms offer a redemption process that transforms your digital gold into physical gold, such as coins or bars.

The process involves de-tokenizing your digital holdings and converting them into physical gold using blockchain technology. You typically need to submit a request specifying the denomination and quantity, following the platform’s terms and conditions.

Additional fabrication, shipping, and insurance fees may apply for physical delivery. To ensure a smooth transition, carefully review the terms and conditions provided by your digital gold platform.

THE OUTLOOK FOR DIGITAL GOLD

The outlook for digital gold is promising, driven by advancements in technology and shifting investor preferences toward more accessible and liquid investment options. As the investment landscape evolves, digital gold is gaining traction, particularly among younger investors. Blockchain technology enhances digital gold's resilience against market volatility and economic uncertainties.

Digital gold provides greater accessibility and convenience, improved security through blockchain technology, diversification potential in volatile markets, and lower costs compared to physical gold. These attributes particularly appeal to tech-savvy, younger investors.

Digital gold’s potential for diversification and growth positions it as a compelling alternative within the investment landscape.

HOUSEKEEPING

I’ll be sending out Zoom links shortly for our monthly meeting for October.

Cheers

Jacquie

October 30, 2024

Jacque's Post

(WE ARE EARLY IN THE AI GROWTH NARRATIVE – OPPORTUNITIES ARE AHEAD)

October 30, 2024

Hello everyone.

Don’t listen to people who say the AI sector is stretched. We are near the beginning of the journey, and there will be opportunities across the board, not just in Big Tech.

Revenues related to this industry could pass the trillion-dollar mark within the next decade. So, don’t try and time your market journey with this theme – stay the course and enjoy the roller coaster ride.

Any weakness in AI-related companies should be seen as an opportunity – to build strategic and long-term AI exposure. Over the next one to two years, we can expect robust growth in this sector.

On Monday, Apple released its AI platform, known as Apple Intelligence, in an iOS upgrade for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 15 Pro, as well as in software updates for the iPad and Mac. Shares closed nearly 1% higher following the announcement. Several investment bank analysts see steady iPhone growth and strong growth in its services.

Netflix, which reported a little over a week ago, could also be a beneficiary of the rise in AI demand. The stock has risen around 56% in 2024. Expect to see continued strong growth globally.

Any pullback in Nvidia shares should be scaled into. The chip space has further to run.

HALLOWEEN CORNER

It’s Halloween once a year, so let’s distract ourselves from all things financial for a moment and take a journey into a real zombie world.

Ghosts and ghouls and all manner of scary things are well and truly arranged and secured in people’s front yards as they await this special day in October. Costumes have been purchased or brought out of the plastic covering. All is ready for the day. Me, I’m not into the Halloween tradition and prefer to observe from the sidelines.

But here’s an insight which really will bring the zombie story to real life.

Imagine a flesh-eating, brain-warping fungus from the genus Cordyceps, which inspired the zombie-apocalypse video game and TV series The Last of Us.

There are about 600 species of Cordyceps. Most of them prey on ants or insects, such as the large “ghost” caterpillar. This species of fungus takes control when the caterpillar is buried in the soil.

The caterpillar of the Australian ghost moth tends to burrow straight down into the soil to graze on the roots of gum trees and some other species related to eucalypts. So, it probably picks up the fungus as it burrows into the earth. The fungus then penetrates the exoskeleton or digestive tract of the insect with a thin, needle-like tube.

Once inside the caterpillar, the fungus starts to grow rapidly. It produces very fine threads (hyphae) that spread through the body of the insect, replacing its structure. The fungus expands to fill the available space, assuming ultimate control. The fungus produces a range of chemicals that influence the brain in a way that meets the environmental and reproductive needs of the fungus.

The caterpillar is doomed as soon as the fungus starts to grow inside it. After being taken over by another life form, the zombie caterpillar dies. All of this happens out of sight, under the soil surface.

Cordyceps also preys on ants and can wipe out entire ant colonies.

Humans need not fear being zombified and mummified by Cordyceps fungi. Believe it or not, these macabre creatures have a long history in traditional medicine. While the fungus has been cultivated for about 40 years, naturally growing, wild fungi can be very expensive as they are still relatively rare and difficult to find. A kilogram can retail for A$30,000.

Members of the genus Cordyceps have been around for more than 45 million years. Humans have nothing to fear from these creatures, but if you are a certain species of ant or ghost moth, Halloween may take on a whole new meaning.

QI CORNER

David Attenborough, 98 years old, is still working and now introducing his landmark natural history series on Asia.

See Asia Sunday at 6:20 pm BBC1/ Whole Series available from Sunday iPlayer.

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

VACATION CORNER

Cheers

Jacquie

October 28, 2024

Jacque's Post

(TIME TO STEEL YOURSELF FOR A NEWSY WEEK JUST BEFORE THE ELECTION)

October 28, 2024

Hello everyone

WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR

Monday, Oct. 28

10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (October)

10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (October)

7:30 p.m. Japan Unemployment Rate

Previous: 2.5%

Forecast: 2.5%

Earnings: Ford Motor, On Semiconductor

Tuesday, Oct. 29

8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (September)

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (August)

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller comp. 20 HPI (August)

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (October)

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (September)

8:30 p.m. Australia Inflation Rate

Previous: 3.8%

Forecast: 2.9%

Earnings: Visa, Chipotle Mexican Grill, First Solar, Caesars Entertainment, Advanced Micro Devices, McDonalds, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Group, PayPal, D.R. Horton, Alphabet.

Wednesday, Oct 30

8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (October)

8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price first preliminary (Q3)

8:30 a.m. GDP first preliminary (Q3)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (September)

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales

Earnings: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Starbucks, Kraft Heinz, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, GE Healthcare Technologies, Clorox, Bookings Holdings.

Thursday, Oct. 31

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (10/19)

8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q3)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/26)

8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (September)

8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (September)

8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (September)

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (September)

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (October)

Earnings: Apple, Amazon.com, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Uber Technologies, The Estee Lauder Companies, Mastercard, Generac.

Friday, Nov. 1

8:30 a.m. Jobs Report (October)

Previous: 254k

Forecast: 140k

9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing final (October)

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (September)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (October0

Earnings: Exxon Mobil

It’s a data heavy week. Big Tech reports earnings, and expectations are high, but many analysts are still beating the table on these tech stocks, particularly Meta (META), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) believing they have further room to run.

The employment report on Friday takes on additional significance ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Market participants will also closely monitor Q3 GDP estimates and PCE inflation figures throughout the week. These high impact releases could reshape market sentiment heading into the US election. In fact, any deviation from the recent streak of robust economic data could potentially lead to significant moves in the US dollar.

‘Toy’ Drones Could Be A ‘Real’ Tool for Terrorists

Britain’s streets could be transformed into chaos if Extremists use “toy drones”. This is the warning from the Government’s counter terrorism management team.

Current rules enforced by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) require people operating drones weighing more than 250g to be registered and pass a theory test. However, lighter devices are widely available and are not subject to the same rules.

The world’s biggest drone company DJI sells multiple models advertised as weighing 249g.

In the UK there is regulation affecting the use of drones and it includes some provision for licensing users, but the regulation does not apply to ‘toy’ drones.

The Gold Boom

We all know that gold’s value is driven by interest rates, inflation and geopolitical fears; it is the insurance of choice for investors seeking security. When interest rates fall and returns on some assets slide with them, gold can be a safe bet. When inflation erodes a currency’s purchasing power, the price of gold rises like everything else. Furthermore, it is also a haven commodity for investors, who are concerned about war and global tensions.

This boom seems a little different, particularly the drivers of the gold price.

Central banks of emerging nations have been the big buyers of the past couple of years. Many of these nations are hostile to the United States and see hoarding more gold as financial protection. Others just think that the days when the dollar was the dominant means of global exchange is waning.

That’s a big wake up call for the West. Mohamed El-Erian believes that we could be witnessing a fragmentation of the international financial system based on the dollar. And that would mean eroding US power.

Central bank gold buying hit a record high in the first three months of 2024, according to the World Gold Council. India, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Russia, Iraq, and Jordan were among the biggest purchasers. China has increased its buying too.

It appears many countries are calling time on America’s “weaponisation” of the dollar. Collectively, these countries may conclude that they might be better off with an alternative currency to use for international trade. And holding more gold could be a foundation for a new payments system.

Russian president Vladmir Putin has long envisioned the creation of a gold-backed alternative to the dollar, and last week he had a chance to push his agenda. At a three-day economic summit, which included the latest gathering of the BRICS group of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – Putin shared his vision for a BRICS currency. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Pakistan, Thailand, Venezuela, Senegal and Saudi Arabia are seen as potential members.

At the Summit, Putin showed a symbolic banknote, “The Unit” featuring the flags of BRICS countries.

Even if the BRICS members and their partners never find a way to circumvent the dollar, no one stocking up on gold appears to be losing money at this time.