July 24, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $1.65

BERY Long Sept $50.00 Call at $2.70

OI Long Nov $17 Call for $1.25
OI Short Nov $20 Call for $0.35

VALE Long at $13.50
VALE Short July 27th - 13.50 Call at $0.21

FEYE Long at $16.69
FEYE Short July 27th - $17.00 Call at $0.25

.......................................................................................... 

Yesterday the S & P 500 closed 5.15 points to the upside. It closed at 2,806.98.

This was about four points above last week's close of 2,801.83. The close should now be support.

The range for the day was still narrow, coming in at 13.47 points. Never the less, yesterday's range was greater than the prior three days.

But more importantly, yesterday's close reversed two prior bearish closes and it closed at 88% of the daily price bar. This puts the odds of yesterday's high of 2,808.61 being violated before the low, which was 2,795.14, at close to 90%.

And pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 5 points higher, so if the pre market trading stays at this level, the high should be violated before the low.

The next level on the upside to watch will be last week's high, which was 2,816.76.

If the market can clear this level, I would expect price to continue to climb higher.

Yesterday's low was 2,795.14. The low came in almost exactly on the minor 2,795.40 support level I mentioned yesterday.

Even with the narrow range trading the market has been experiencing as of late, the short term trends would keep you on the longside. Yesterday was another example of this.

And another reason why I don't suggest you think about shorting when all trends are in alignment. And that is what we have at the moment.

Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,801 to 2,803 area.

GOOGL reported last night and is trading about $54 higher off their earnings.

On the downside is WHR, which reported and is down about 10% pre open.

As I mentioned yesterday, we will from a number of major market movers this week. Including AMZN, which reports Thursday after the close.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX closed at 12.62. Yesterday's high was 13.55. The VIX managed to move once again above the minor 13.28 level, but could not hold it.

This is what we expected. And I would still expect resistance at 13.28 until it is violated.

On the downside, the key level is 12.11. If the VIX breaks under this level, I would expect it to head lower.

SPX:

Major level: 2,841.80
Minor level: 2,829.60
Minor level: 2,805.20 **
Major level: 2,793.00 <
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50
Major level: 2,695.30

Minor support should now be at 2,802.10 and 2,799.10.

If the S & P can hold the 2,805 level, it could run up to 2,814.

On the upside, resistance is at 2,820.40.

QQQ:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69 **
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75

The QQQ closed at 179.56. The 181.25 level is still the objective.

At this point, 178.52 should be minor support. On the upside, 180.47 is the level the QQQ has to clear. If it does, it should run to 181.25.

Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are still bullish.

IWM:

Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53 **
Major level: 168.75 <<
Minor level: 167.97 **
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50

The IWM closed at 168.69. If the IWM can close above 169.53 today, it should run up to 171.88.

170.31 is a minor resistance level. If the IWM clears 170.31, it should head higher.

Major support is at 167.97. And minor support is at 167.58.

Both short term charts are on uptrends, so look to buy on support.

TLT:

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75

The TLT closed at 119.27.

The TLT closed under the midband, which is 121.26. This level should now be resistance.

118.75 is the next level for the TLT. If it breaks under 117.97, it should drop lower.

I would expect support to come in at 118.75.

GLD:

Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19 <
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02 **
Major level: 115.63

The GLD closed at 116.56. A close today above 116.02 and the GLD should test 117.19.

115.82 should be minor support. And 115.63 should offer strong support.

On the upside, 118.75 should still be resistance.

XLE:

Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22 **
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75

The XLE closed at 74.56, just under the major 75.00 support level.

At this point, 74.22 is the key price level. IF the XLE breaks under 74.22, I would expect a drop to 71.

FXY:

Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94 **
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38

The FXY closed at 85.89. The FXY hit the major 85.94 level, with a high of 86 yesterday.

The question now is high high can this bounce go?

It is possible the FXY can run up 86.33. But, at this point, a pullback here could be short lived.

86.33 should be minor resistance.

AAPL:

Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38

Apple closed at 191.61. 190.63 should be strong support.

The objective for Apple should still be to the 193.75 level.

The 60 minute chart is very close to crossing into an uptrend.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: GWW, HUM, COST, FB, SNA, IBM, V, EW, CRI, DIS, GRUB, DATA, DXCM, SQ, DNKN

Bearish Stocks: TSLA, NXPI, SMG, BG, CAH, CTRP, EBAY, TSRO

Be sure to check earnings release dates.