While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
CHKP Long August 16th - $110 call for $2.70
CHKP Short August 16th - $115 call for $0.60
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Yesterday, I did suggest a debit spread on CHKP. The spread used the August monthly options, so it does give some time to see if the stock will bounce.
The S & P 500 closed 4.89 points lower on the day. It closed out the day at 3,020.97.
And the day was a narrow range trading with only a range of 11.31 points. This was about one half of the daily average true range, which is now 21.23 points.
The high for the day did not take out Friday's high. And low didn't either. So, the day ended up as an inside day.
We are still biased for Friday's high to be violated before the low.
With a narrow range inside day, we know to expect an expansion at some point.
Perhaps that will happen Wednesday after the Fed announces their decision on interest rates. The general consensus is for a quarter-point drop in rates.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,020 to 3,023 area,
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 3,002 to 3,004 area. This area should still be valid on a pullback.
We are still seeing some large moves off earnings.
It looks like BYND will open about $30 lower.
And NXPI should open about $10 lower, which is a drop of about 10%.
Apple reports after the close today and should be closely followed.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 8 points lower. Watch yesterday's low of 3,014.30 as well.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 12.83 yesterday. As you know, the VIX is trading around its long term support level. So, a bounce here would not be a surprise.
To move higher, the VIX will need two closes above 13.28. But, it should be resistance until it is taken out. And yesterday's high was just under it at 13.17. And technical resistance is at 12.95 as well.
On the downside, the level to watch is 12.11 and a break under this level would suggest it will head lower. And yesterday's low came in at 12.15 or 4 cents above it.
At this point, the key short term levels are 12.11 and 13.28. Watch for a break out of either level.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 ***
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed above 3,007.85 for the second consecutive day, which suggests the active objective should be to 3,125.
3,015.10 should offer support. And there is a short term support level at 3,023.70. Watch to see if the S & P can clear this level.
Minor support should also be at 3,011.50. Watch this level on a pullback.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53 **
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 194.62. This was the second close above 194.53. This now suggests that the QQQ should move up to 196.88.
So, both the QQQ and the S & P can confirm moves higher.
194.53 is still a minor support level. And yesterday's low stopped 14 cents under it. Look for this level to continue to be support. But, a break under it would suggest the QQQ should head lower.
193.75 should now offer strong support.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 156.15, down 1.05 for the day. The IWM continues to bounce around the midband. But, it is getting closer to crossing into an uptrend on its daily chart.
It is likely it could cross into an uptrend by the end of the week.
And the IWM is still above the midband, which is 153.82. This level should continue to be support at this point. So, a violation to the downside would suggest more selling pressure.
To move lower, the IWM would need two closes under 154.69.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47 **
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed at 131.51. To head lower, the TLT will need two closes under 130.47. And to move higher, two closes above 132.03.
The TLT has not confirmed either way. But, the daily trend is still bullish.
131.25 should still be support. And if the TLT can clear 132.25, it should continue higher.
GLD:
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16 **
Major level: 134.48 <
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
The GLD closed at 134.53. The GLD will still need two closes under 133.60 to drop to 131. And two closes above 135.16 to head higher.
134.38 should offer resistance. Watch the minor 133.59 level today. This should offer resistance as well. A break under 133.59 would suggest the GLD will head lower.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 62.20. The XLE sold off 0.25 yesterday. And is just under the major 62.50 level.
Short term oversold. If the XLE can get above 62.50, look for it to head higher. Continues to move closer to an uptrend on the daily chart.
62.11 is a minor support level. A break udner this level and the XLE should head lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 209.68. The objective continues to be up to 212.50.
206.25 should offer support. So, if it is violated, it should head lower.
The 206 area should offer technical support.
Apple does report this afternoon. And it is close to crossing into an uptrend on its daily chart.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, SHOP, AVGO, MA, PANW, OLED, PANW, HD, LRCX, BABA, V, CMI, DE, CB, JPM
Bearish Stocks: ALGN, AMGN, IRBT, SFLY, XEC, CLR, NOAH, SFM, CADE
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
