July 6, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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Yesterday opened with almost an 11 point bullish gap and the S & P 500 managed to hold onto those gains. For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,736.61. This was an upside close of 23.39 points. The low for the day was 2,716.02. Today closes out the shortend holiday trading week. Scaling out to the weekly price bar so far, we see a high of 2,737.83 and a low of 2,698.95. This puts the midpoint of the weekly price bar through yesterday a 2,718. A close above this level would be bullish, so watch this level if the market does pullback. The other key fact at the moment is that the weekly bar so far is an inside day. Last week's high was 2,746.09 and the low was 2,691.99. The high for the week was made yesterday when the S & P hit 2,737.83. On a rally, watch to see if the market can take out last week's high. The Non Farm Payroll figures will be released this morning, at 8:30 EST. I am writing this before the release of the report and the S & P 500 is trading about 5 points to the downside. This can all change of course, based on the Non Farm Payroll. Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market. Here are the Key Levels for the Markets: $VIX: Major level: 31.25 Minor level: 29.69 Minor level: 26.56 Major level: 25.00 Minor level: 23.44 Minor level: 20.31 Major level: 18.75 < Minor level: 17.19 Minor level: 14.06 ** Major level: 12.50 < Minor level: 10.94 The VIX closed at 14.97. It closed 1.17 points to the downside. At this point, I am still biased for a move down to 12.50. On the upside, I would expect resistance at 16.41 and 15.63. On the downside. 14.84 is a key short term level. A close under this level would also help to confirm a drop to 12.50. $SPX: Major level: 2,812.50 Minor level: 2,802.73 Minor level: 2,783.18 Major level: 2,773.40 Minor level: 2,763.65 Minor level: 2,744.15 ** Major level: 2,734.40 < Minor level: 2,724.63 ** Minor level: 2,705.08 Major level: 2,695.30 Minor level: 2,685.55 Minor level: 2,666.05 Major level: 2,656.30 Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,727 to 2,730 area. Also, minor support is at the 2,727.10 level. Watch to see if this level holds on a pullback. The market did get back above the 2,734.40 level. The next level on the upside is 2,744.15. Also, the 2,724.63 minor level should be support. QQQ: Major level: 181.25 Minor level: 179.69 Minor level: 176.56 Major level: 175.00 < Minor level: 173.44 Minor level: 170.31 ** Major level: 168.75 Minor level: 167.19 Minor level: 164.06 Major level: 162.50 The QQQ closed at 172.92. The objective should still be up to 175. 171.09 should be minor support. And 171.88 should as well. Another close the minor 172.66 will also help to confirm a move up to 175. IWM: Major level: 171.88 Minor level: 171.10 Minor level: 169.53 Major level: 168.75 < Minor level: 167.97 Minor level: 166.41 ** Major level: 165.63 < Minor level: 164.85 Minor level: 163.28 Major level: 162.50 The IWM closed at 166.84. A close today above 166.41 implies a move up to 168.75. 165.63 should be strong support. And minor support is at 164.84. TLT: Minor level: 123.83 Major level: 123.44 < Minor level: 121.49 Minor level: 120.70 ** Major level: 120.31 Minor level: 119.92 Minor level: 119.14 Major level: 118.75 Minor level: 118.36 Minor level: 117.58 Major level: 117.19 The TLT closed at 122.35. The objective for the TLT should be up to 123.44. 121.88 and 122.07 should be minor support. GLD: Minor level: 123.05 Minor level: 122.27 Major level: 121.88 Minor level: 121.49 Minor level: 120.70 Major level: 120.31 Minor level: 119.92 Minor level: 119.14 ** Major level: 118.75 Minor level: 118.36 ** Minor level: 117.58 Major level: 117.19 The GLD closed at 119.05. 119.53 is a minor level on the upside. The GLD needs to clear this level to head higher. 117.97 should be a minor support level on the downside. A break under this level and it should head lower. The daily chart just crossed into a downtrend. Profiting from the shortside will be the opportunity. Sell rallies. XLE: Major level: 78.13 Minor level: 77.35 Minor level: 75.78 ** Major level: 75.00 Minor level: 74.22 ** Minor level: 72.66 Major level: 71.88 Minor level: 71.10 Minor level: 69.53 Major level: 68.75 The XLE closed at 75.21. The XLE will still need two closes above 75.78 to move higher. On the downside, two closes under 74.22 and the XLE should drop to 71.88. The XLE continues to hold just above the 75 level. A break under 75 and the XLE should continue lower. FXY: Minor level: 88.09 Minor level: 87.70 Major level: 87.50 Minor level: 87.31 Minor level: 86.92 Major level: 86.72 < Minor level: 86.53 ** Minor level: 86.14 Major level: 85.94 The FXY closed at 86.55. The objective is still down to 85.94. Watch to see if the FXY clears 86.72. If it does, it should head higher. 86.82 is resistance. Support is at 86.43. AAPL: Minor level: 188.28 Major level: 187.50 < Minor level: 186.72 Minor level: 185.16 Major level: 184.38 Minor level: 183.60 ** Minor level: 182.03 Major level: 181.25 Minor level: 179.69 Minor level: 176.56 Major level: 175.00 Apple closed at 185.40. It formed a narrow range inside day. Look for an expansion out of this price formation. 184.38 is a short term support level. A break under this level and Apple should continue lower. 183.59 is minor support. And 189.06 is minor resistance. WATCH LIST: Bullish Stocks: BDX, SBAC, CTSH, NTAP, APC, EGN, AVAV, K, DRQ, APA, CRC, MDU, CIEN, TEVA, UNT, CNX Bearish Stocks: GD, GS, LRCX, ITW, CMI, WBC, UPS, LOGM, SWKS, SINA, WDC, XLNX, AAL Be sure to check earnings release dates.