June 11, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
Short Euro ?????????????????????????? ? ?? 136.31????????????? 136.85?? GTC
Long? JJG??? ????????????????????? ? ? ? ??? 46.95??????????????? 46.00?? Stop Close
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Today's Working Orders
BUY Euro @ 133.75 OCO 136.85 Stop GTC ( Good Until Canceled)
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Stocks...?
Spu's...need new strength over 1954 for more upside.?1st support is 1931-34.
FB...Needs new closing strength over 66.60 for another move higher.
TWTR...34.55 is near support. On the daily chart this looks poised to test the 50 DMA @ 37.75.
IBM...this needs to hold early and rally to avoid lower retests.
Bonds...
30 Yr. Bonds...(M) 135.18 will be pivotal all day
TBT...I'm friendly to buying the dips as long as they remain over 63.?
Bund...by not recovering over 145.20 expect a test of 144.60.
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FX...
EUR/JPY...is poked below 138.70 (200 DMA). Failure to rally and close over this level will keep the cross and the Euro under pressure.
This could flush to close to 137
EURO....I'm looking for a 133.70 print for an initial downside tgt.
Short term resting sell stops are under 135.00.
Commodities...
OIL...I need a couple of days over 105 before I start buying.? 103.40 ish should hold an initial break.
It's a good level to buy before you sell to see what develops.
Play this with no more than a 30 tick tolerance.
The point & figure shows a retrace to 102.00 is possible on a good inventory #.
FYI, there are storage #'s out @ 9:30 CDT that should move the market.
Gold...(Q)?August is now the liquid future...has been bid with the Platinum & Oil against the continental currencies when they go offered against the dollar.
Bulls are once again taking heart and I can't say as I blame them from a technical point of view. The risk to be long is 1250 stop close.
From a fundamental bent they've held up remarkably well in the face of the world Bond sell off over the past few days.
Now I just need the Grains to follow suit!
General Comments orValuable Insight
The world Bond Futures all seemed to have put in a good high Friday.
From the Gilts to the Italian & German 10 yr's, rates are inching back up.
Hilsenrath has spoken, and many are positioning themselves for next weeks Fed meeting, looking for a hawkish statement from the Fed.
All I can say is that since I changed my bias on 5/29 we've dropped like a stone, a stone I wish I had both hands wrapped around.
At this point I'll wait for next week to decide whether or not to run with the lemmings.
Today I would focus your attention on the price action in the 30 yr. @ the 50 DMA @ 135.18. This is a go or no go level that has the potential to flip the entire board.
A hold and a big bounce will have "Risk off" ramifications mid week.
144.60 is the matching Bund level.
Failure?...more of the same, Equity Indices grind up.
Opening Range Time Frame Trading again today.
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Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical's.
For Medium Term Outlook click here.
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.