Today of course, is the long awaited Fed announcement about interest rates at 2:00 PM.? The general consensus is the Fed will hold off on a rate increase.
Anything to the contrary would shock the markets.
The meeting this week certainly has brought fear back to the markets, as evidenced by the VIX.
The VIX has run from a low of 12.72 (overnight print) to a high of 22.16 yesterday.? This is why trading the long side of the VIX can be profitable, because the spikes can be sharp ... and fast. But I suggest booking profits on spikes, like yesterday.
Yesterday's low in the S & P 500 of 2,064.10 was just above the major 2,062.50 support level.? This should be a major support level and if it holds, I can see the S & P 500 rallying up to the 2,250 level before year end.
Of course today could throw a monkey wrench into those plans, but I will stay with my scenario until proven otherwise.
On the daily chart, the S & P 500 formed a doji bar, which you know means indecision.? Today's close will tell us a lot in terms of the next move.
If 2,062.50 cannot hold as support, I do believe that 2,000 will.
From a technical perspective, the VIX did get above the upper band on the 60 minute chart, and closed above it.
The VIX will have to close back under the upper band for the markets to commence a rally.? The upper band is 19.26, so watch where the VIX opens today as a clue to direction today.
The odds favor a retest of the upper band, which indicates to me the markets may bounce around before the next move begins.
Today is our webinar at 12:00 EST.? I hope to see you there.
Pre open, the markets are trading slightly to the upside.
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Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 24.21
Minor level - 22.66 *
Major level - 21.88
Minor level - 21.09 *
Minor level - 19.53
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.96
Minor level - 16.41
Major level - 15.63
Major level - 12.50
The VIX ran up to a high of 22.16 before closing under the 21.88 level, at 20.50.
A close today under the minor 21.09 level and the VIX should drop to 18.75.?
On the upside, the key level is 22.66.? That is the confirming level up to 25, which can often act as resistance.
23.44 should still be a resistance level.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Minor level - 2,140.62
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12 *
Major level - 2,062.50 *
Minor level - 2,046.88 *
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00
2,062.50 should still be support.? Minor support is at 2,046.90.? Resistance is at 2,078,10.
2,070.30 is a short term support level.? And 2,085.90 is a minor short term resistance level.
Intra day charts still remain in uptrends.
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Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
The QQQ closed at 108.03 yesterday.? Yesterday's low was just above the minor 107.03 suport level.
Minor support is at 107.81.? Minor resistance is at 108.60.
TLT:?
Major level - 137.50
Minor level - 136.72
Minor level - 135.16 *
Major level - 134.38
Minor level - 133.60 *
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
The TLT spiked up to a high of 136.22 yesterday, before closing at 135.28.
The objective should be to 137.50.? It should be volatile today based on the Fed announcement.
Technically, the TLT is overbought and it is getting very close to the upper band on the daily chart.
Short term support should be at 134.38 and 135.16.
Short term resistance is at 136.72.
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88 *
Minor level - 121.09 *
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75
The GLD closed at 122.77 yesterday.
Two closes above 122.66 and the objective now becomes 125. Minor resistance is at 123.44.? The GLD will need to clear 123.44 to head higher.
Support should be at 121.88 and 121.09.
XLE:
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.09
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63 *
Major level - 62.50
Objective should be down to 65.63.
Minor support is at 66.41 and major support at 65.53.
Minor resistance is at 67.97 and 67.19. Yesterday's low was just 4 cents under the 66.41 minor support level.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Minor support is at 96.88.? If Apple breaks un
der that level, look for a move down to 93.75.
95.31 should be a minor support level.? Minor resistance at 98.44.?
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: BCR, RTN, BDX, JNJ, LLL, WYNN, CLX, LH, NEE, ECL, TAP, HSY, DTE, CTXS, BURL
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Bearish Stocks:? CMG, BIIB, GS, ALXN, PANW, EXPE, CCL, DIS, HIG, MET, BEN, SHLX, MS, VRX
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Be sure to check earnings release dates.
