June 22, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

There are two positions that expire today. The short $14.50 call on PRA and the short $17 call on DXC.

I will look to add more calls this week on these positions.

The S & P 500 ended the week closing 17.53 points lower. Friday, the S & P closed at 3,097.81.

The daily price bar ended up as an outside day. This is when it makes a higher high and a lower low.

And the daily bar closed at 20% of the range of Friday's daily bar. This does suggest that the low of 3,083.11 should be violated before the high of 3,155.53.

The resistance level from Friday's daily price bar is around 3,119.

Pre open, the S & P is trading about 25 points higher. This projects to an open around 3,122 or about 3 points above the resistance level. Watch to see if the market can hold 3,119. It will need to move higher.

For the week, the S & P closed 56.43 points higher. The weekly range was 190 points, which did exceed the weekly average true range, which is 175.83.

And the weekly price bar closed at almost 70% of the range of the weekly bar, which does suggest that last week's high should be violated before the low.

Support from last week's price bar is in the 3,045 area. Above 3,045, there is support around 3,060.

Earnings season is winding down, so there are not a lot of companies reporting this week.

NKE reports Thursday after the close.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16 **
Major level: 34.38 <
Minor level: 33.60 **
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22

The VIX closed at 34.48. It closed 1.54 higher on the day.

The VIX took out the 31.25 objective, dropping to a low of 30.40. After stopping at the low, the VIX ran to the major 34.38 level.

At this point, watch the 33.60 level on the downside and 35.16 on the upside.

Technical resistance is around 35.

S & P 500:

Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00 <<
Minor level: 3,085.95 **
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30

The S & P closed at 3,097.81. The low for the day stopped about 3 points below the minor 3,085.95 level. The low for the day was 3,083.11. The minor 3,085.95 level should still be support.

The projected open should be around 3,122. Watch to see if the market can clear the major 3,125 level. Also, watch the 3,119 level on the downside.

Technical support is around 3,087.

QQQ:

Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 248.54
Minor level: 245.31 **
Major level: 243.75 < Hit
Minor level: 242.15
Minor level: 239.00
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 235.91
Minor level: 232.78
Major level: 231.22
Minor level: 229.66
Minor level: 226.56
Major level: 225.00

The QQQ closed at 244.24. With a close above the major 243.75 level, it should still be support.

Watch the minor 245.31 level. Two closes above this level and the QQQ should test 250.

Support should be at 243.50. And technical support is at 244.

The upper band is now 250.

IWM:

Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.19 **
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25

The IWM closed at 140.99. This was the third close under 142.19, so a drop to 137 would not be unexpected. The IWM needs to close above 142.19 to move higher.

But, at this point, 142.19 should be resistance.

136 should be technical support.

TLT:

Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13

The TLT closed at 162.39. Yesterday's high went to 162.50, hitting the major level.

Watch to see if the TLT can clear 162.50. The 161.72 level should be support.

The TLT is in a downtrend on the 60 minute chart. Resistance should be at the 163 level, which is the midband. If the TLT can clear this level, it should be support.

GLD:

Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50 < Hit
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13

The GLD closed at 164.03. With a close today above 163.28, the GLD should test 165.63.

162.50 level should be support.

Technical support is also at 162.50. A break under this level the GLD should continue lower. But, it should be support.

XLE:

Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63 <
Minor level: 39.83 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50 <
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.27

The XLE closed at 39.57. With a close back under 39.83, if the XLE closes udner this level today, it should drop to 37.50.

The midband on the 60 minute chart is now 39 and the XLE is just above it. This should now be support. A break under it and the XLE should head lower.

The 37.50 area should be support.

AAPL:

Major level: 362.50
Minor level: 359.38
Minor level: 353.13 **
Major level: 350.00 < HIT
Minor level: 346.88
Minor level: 340.63
Major level: 337.50
Minor level: 334.38
Minor level: 328.13
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50

Apple closed at 349.72. Support should be at 346.88. And to move higher, Apple will need two closes above 353.13.

Technical support is right at the 346 area.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: AMZN, TSLA, SHOP, REGN, ADBE, NTES, NVDA, ASML, AAPL, PAYC, COUP, ZM, ADSK, BABA, QDEL, TWLO, ZM, CRM, EFX, PYPL, DOCU

Bearish Stocks: LH, RGLD, HAE, SAIC, DOX, AMBA, FLIR, AVA, FSCT, CMTL