While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $2.37
Short June 20th - $15.50 call @ $.27
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $.80
CRM Long June 28th $155 Call @ $3.20
CRM Short June 28th $160 Call @ $1.00
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There is one position that does expire today and that is the debit spread on CRM. CRM is under the long strike, so it appears the position will expire. The hedge helped to offset the loss on the long position.
The market made a push higher yesterday. For the day, it closed at 2,924.92, up 11.14. points.
The market fell below the weekly support level of 2,920 to 2,925 and managed to close right at the upper end.
The low for the day was 2,918.57, which was just under the lower end of the weekly support level.
But, for the second consecutive day, the S & P 500 contracted. The range for the day was only 10.73. This was about 40% of the daily average true range of 26.17 points.
With two days of contractions, we know an expansion will be forthcoming ... the question is when?
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points higher. Certainly, not a huge gap. My suspicion tells me we may not see that expansion today. I suspect it will come next week.
The support area from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,922 to 2,924 area.
And with a projected open about 6 points higher, the market should open above the weekly 2,925 support level. Watch for this area to offer support on a pullback.
The weekly bar is also shaping up for a major contraction. The range through yesterday was only 42 points.
The weekly average true range is 75.23 points, so the weekly range is about half the average.
The midpoint of the weekly bar is 2,934. So, watch to see if the market can clear this level today.
The weekly bar is also shaping up to be an inside bar with a lower high and a higher low.
This does suggest that perhaps we see that expansion next week.
If you day trade, it may be a good day to turn off your computer and head out.
And with the shortened week next week and Holiday here in the States, it does suggest a rally may start Monday.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed Friday at 15.83. Yesterday's high came to 16.40, just one cent under the 16.41 resistance level we have been looking for.
The low came to 15.66 or 3 cents above the 15.63 support level.
A break of 15.63 should indicate that the VIX will head lower.
Minor support is at 14.84. And 16.41 should still be resistance.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,949.25
Minor level: 2,910.15 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Looking for the active objective of 2,968.80 level, to be hit.
The S & P 500 is trading above the support level at 2,900.40. There is also technical support in this area.
Minor level is at 2,924.66. If the S & P 500 can clear this level, it should head higher.
Short term charts remain bullish.
Technical support should be at 2,920.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 < Hit
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 186.50. A close today above 185.94 and look for the QQQ to head to 189.
185.94 should offer minor support. And if the QQQ can clear 187.50, that should be support as well.
Like the S & P 500, short term charts remain bullish.
Technical support should be at 182.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 153.63. The IWM closed to the upside 2.83 points. It was a move of 1.88%.
It is back to testing the midband, which is 154.59.
Minor support should now be at 153.13 and 151.56. If the IWM holds 153.13, I suspect it will test 156.25.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03 **
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed out at 132.90. It was up 0.93 on the day. It continues to test the upper band on the daily chart, which is now 133.32.
The good news is that we should know in a day or two if it can close above the upper band or it fails.
133.59 is minor resistance and 131.64 is minor support.
GLD:
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 132.84. The GLD sold off but is still above the upper band on the daily chart. The upper band is now 131.22.
Biased for a drop to 131.25. 134.38 is minor resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 62.98. The XLE will still need two closes above 63.28 to move up to 65.63.
I mentioned yesterday a resistance at 63.62. Yesterday's high came to 63.64. And because it could not clear it, the XLE sold off.
62.89 should offer minor support and major support should be at 62.50.
The XLE is sitting right at the technical support level at 63.
AAPL:
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Apple still cannot close above 200. Yesterday, Apple closed at 199.74. The high for the day did clear it. The high was 201.57.
200 is a key level for Apple. If it does take out 200, it should move up to 250.
198.44 should offer support.
Technical support is at 199. The 60 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. Continue to look to buy at support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, LMT, SHOP, NOC, ADBE, SPY, NOW, MLM, WDAY, HD, ZBRA, CME, EW, CMI, DATA, V, DE, WIX
Bearish Stocks: ALGN, BLUE, AMTD, FIZZ, TWTR, WES, BGSPRGO, AMTD
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
