June 29, 2017 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48

VRX Long at $13.69
VRX Short June 30th-$16.50 call at $0.30

APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
APA Short Oct $52.50 Call at $1.10

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I brought up the idea of a July 4th rally the other day and it certainly appeared that it was going to fizzle out. Especially with the S & P 500 closing under the next lower confirming line.

But, the market did not disappoint yesterday. And I did mention just yesterday that I felt we would get a July 4th rally.

It gapped up and ended up closing at 2,440.69, up 21.31 points on the day. However, the intra day range was only about 15 points because of the bullish gap.

To have grabbed the whole move, you would have had to be positioned long at the close on Tuesday.

And I demonstrated on yesterday's webinar, the S & P 500 was under the lower extreme bollinger band on it's short term 10 minute chart. And when the higher timeframes are in uptrends, this is usually a decent trade set up.
Which, by the way they were.

I am glad to see that members are trying to set up strategies to trade around the resistance levels I share. I know that members use this information in different ways, with different strategies. And it is always nice to hear how they are used.

If you have had a chance to watch how the markets trade around these levels, you non doubt realize how effective they are.

With the indexes, at the very least you have avoided trying to short this market as it climbs higher. This is simply due to the fact that the S & P 500 continues to hit its upside objectives.

I've stopped sharing this warning due to the fact that I do not want to appear redundant, but we do know that at some point in time, shorting will be the viable option.

My feeling is when the S & P 500 hits 2,500. We shall see.

Continue to follow the resistance levels.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 ***
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level: 9.77
Major level: 9.38

Yesterday once again demonstrates how if you are trading long the VIX, pull off profits quickly.

The overnight high, came in at 11.49, just above the 11.33 resistance level, before the VIX collapsed and closed at 10.03.

9.77 is a short term support level and low yesterday was 9.76. A close today under 10.55 and the VIX should test 9.38. But it is within 40 cents of it already.

10.94 should be resistance.

$SPX:

Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12
Major level: 2,437.50
Minor level: 2,421.88 <
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50

The S & P closed back above 2,437.50. 2,439.95 is a minor support level.

2,433.60 could offer minor support. And 2,445 could offer resistance.

QQQ:

Major level: 146.87
Minor level: 146.09
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72

The low for the day held just above the 137.50 level, which expected should offer support.

I would expect minor support at 139.06. 140.63 should be minor resistance.

IWM:

Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16

The IWM had a rally of over 1.50%. It closed at 141.98. This simplies that if it closed above 141.41 today, it should test 143.75.

143.75 is a key level for the IWM. Breaking through would imply more movement to the upside.

140.63 should offer support. 142.97 should be resistance.

TLT:

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 **
Minor level: 127.35 <
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88

The TLT dropped and is just above the mid band on the daily chart.

It closed just under the 126.56 minor support level. Minor support is now at 126.17 and a drop to 125 is expected.

GLD:

Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53 ***
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 117.97 ***
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63

The GLD closed again just above 118.75. To move higher, it will need two closes above 119.53. 119.92 should be resistance. 118.75 should be support.

XLE:

Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <<
Minor level: 64.85 ***
Minor level: 63.28 <<
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72

A close today above 63.28 implies a test of 65.63. 64.26 should be minor support and 65.03 is minor resistance.

64.84 should also be minor resistance.

FXY:

Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33 <
Major level: 85.94 **
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81

The FXY had it's second close under the 85.94 level. This now implies a move down to the 81 to 82 area.
Continue to trail a stop if you followed the short scenario I have been outlining.

85.94 should be resistance.

AAPL:

Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 156.25, 150, 143.75, and 137.50

Apple bounced up off the 143.75 support level. 144.53 should be minor support. And 148.44 is minor resistance.

Short term Apple is oversold.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: REGN, TSLA, AGN, HUM, FDX, BDX, ANTM, UNH, ANTM, CI, EXPE, NVDA, BABA, WYNN, JNJ, CELG, VRTX, KMB

Bearish Stocks: BWLD, AAP, CASY, CLB, CVS, DG, DLTR, SLB, TSCO, TGT, FL, SFLY, DKS, BGS, HAIN, DVN

Be sure to check earnings release dates.