March 11, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46

FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.30

FCX Long at $12.74
FCX Short March 15th - $13 Call @ $0.24

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Friday, there were two positions closed out. The first was the short $17.50 call on FEYE which expired worthless. The second was the debit spread on TSLA which I suggested you close out. This was mainly because the options expired this Friday and were short dated.

The S & P 500 closed at 2,743.07, down 5.86 points on the day. Considering the market opened with a bearish gap of 18.14 points and dropped to a low of 2,722.27 before rallying back about 21 points, the damage was not that great.

And when you consider that the S & P 500 closed at 95% of the daily price bar, this puts the odds of violating Fridays high of 2,744.13 before the low of 2,722.27 at almost 100%.

The support area from Friday's daily price bar is in the 2,733 to 2,737 area.

But, I do think the most significant aspect of trading from Friday was the fact that the market did fall under the midband on its daily chart ... but managed to close above it.

The midband is 2,736.15. And we know this is an important support level.

Last week, I mentioned what conditions we would need to see a correction of this recent bull move. I would certainly expect a close under the daily midband as an indication that this bull move is ending. Until then, I am still biased to the upside.

Having said that, the weekly price bar closed 60.62 points to the downside. And it closed at 22% of its range.

This tells us that there is a 78% chance that last week's low will be violated before the high.

And last week's range of 94.61 points exceeded the weekly average true range of 85.92 points.

Couple that with the fact that the weekly bar was a bearish engulfment and the odds favor more selling pressure this week.

With Friday's bullish expectation and a bearish weekly expectation, we would expect strength early in the week and then the bull move to fizzle out.

The resistance level from last weeks weekly bar is in the 2,769 to 2,778 area.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading slightly higher, but the DOW is off about 154 points. This is mainly due to the pre market selling in BA which is off about $38.

Earnings do continue this week, but the number of companies reporting are slowing down as we wind down to the end of this season.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed out at 16.05 on Friday. It did test 18.75 on Friday. The VIX got as high as 18.33 before pulling back.

As this point, the VIX will need to break udner 15.63 in order to head lower. And technical support is right around 15.50. So, watch this key area today.

If the VIX does take out 15.63, the next minor level will be 14.84.

SPX:

Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65

The S & P 500 managed to rally back to close above 2,734.40. This was the downside objective we were looking for and it got hit.

If the market does close under 2,734.40 for two days, a drop to 2,697 would be the next logical move.

And the midband on the daily chart is a key level to monitor.

QQQ:

Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 < Hit!!!
Minor level: 173.44 **
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94

The QQQ closed at 171.17 on Friday. There is a minor support level at 171.09 and the QQQ closed just above it.

If the QQQ does close under 171.09, I would expect a drop to 168.75.

The 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend and technical resistance is at 172.30.

IWM:

Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44

The IWM closed at 151.64. At this point, 150 should be tested. A bounce at 150 is possible.

And with a break under the midband which is 156.38, it should now be resistance.

The 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend which does indicate that short term momentum has shifted to the downside. Technical resistance is at 155.

TLT:

Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 121.57. The TLT is within 19 cents of the major 121.88 level. A close above 120.70 would certainly confirm the move up to 121.88.

121.09 should be support. And 120.70 as well.

GLD:

Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75

The GLD closed at 122.84. This now suggests that if the GLD closes above 122.66 today, it should move up to 125.

We were looking for a bounce and we are getting it. The question is how high will it go?

I would expect resistance at 125, so if it does break through this level, it should head higher.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 63.90. A close today under 64.85 and the XLE should test 62.50.

63.28 is a minor support level that should contain the price action. If it can't look for the XLE to head lower.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97

The FXY continued to bounce and closed at 85.80. It took out the 85.94 level.

85.74 should be minor support now. And minor resistance is at 86.13.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00

Predicted High: 174.98
Predicted Low: 170.94

Apple closed at 172.91 Friday. 175 should be resistance now.

170.31 should be support. And 175 should now offer some resistance.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: COST, ZBRA, APD, CMI, CCI, DIS, YUM, CNI, DUK, ROKU, ORCL, SO, LNT, BCE, AGO

Bearish Stocks: NFLX, HUM, GD, SJM, CTS, FANG, INGR, STMP, HAS, EOG, VLO

Be sure to check earnings release dates.