March 13, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $2.80
Short March $16 call @ $0.55

UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35

VIPS Long @ $17.19
Premium Collected - $2.80
Short March 16th - $17.00 call @ $1.15
..........................................................................................

After Friday's large range day, yesterday contracted. This is typical. Consider it a return to the mean.

Yesterday's range was only 17.72 points, as compared to Friday's range of 35.03. And for the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,783.02, down 3.55 for the day.

The close for the day was about 30 points above the upside confirming level, which is 2,753.93. This puts the active objective at 2,812.50.

With the bias firmly to the upside, you want to isolate oversold levels on shorter term timeframes and continue to trade long.

The short term 6o minute chart for the S & P 500 is still in a downtrend. Having said that, the 200 ema is moving up and is close to crossing above the 253 day average. When this event happens, it should indicate that further upside should happen in the market.

Just so you know, the NASD Composite has already had the bullish crossover on the 60 minute chart, so this market is showing more strength than either the DOW or the S & P 500.

The IWM is also very close to crossing into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart.

Support from yesterday's daily price bar should be in the 2,786 to 2,788 area.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points to the upside. This would put the open around 2,789. Watch the daily support levels I mentioned above.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX ended up closing at 15.79. I still expect higher levels to offer resistance. Namely, at the 17.19 level and the 18.75 level.

The VIX crossed into a downtrend on the 60 minute, so I do expect more movement to the downside. This would imply further upside in the markets. From a technical standpoint, the 18.50 area should also offer strong resistance.

$SPX:

Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30

The upside objective should be to the 2,812.50 level. Watch to see if the S & P 500 can clear the 2,793 level. If it can, I would expect support there.

Ultimately, I feel the S & P 500 will hit the 2,890 level, but there should be some resistance along the way.

Buying against support is still the best strategy.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25

The QQQ closed at 174.08. The QQQ should test 175 and is within on half point of the objective.

173.44 should be minor support and major support should be at 168.75. The 60 minute chart just crossed into an uptrend, which implies further movement to the upside. And strong support should be in the 166 area.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13

The IWM closed at 159.20. The 159.38 objective was hit yesterday.

157.81 should offer minor support on a pullback. And major support is at 156.25.

TLT:

Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14 **
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 118.59. The TLT closed .68 to the upside. We have been looking for a bounce from its oversold condition.

To move lower, the TLT will need two closes under 117.58. To move higher, it will need two closes above 119.14.

The TLT will need to clear the 18.75 level to move higher.

GLD:

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66

The GLD closed at 125.54, the same as Friday. The GLD would still need two closes above 125.78 to test 128.13.

The next level on the downside after 125, is 124.22. A break under 124.22 and the GLD should drop to 121.88.

The GLD is at a major level. It will either break out or break down. Still holding the 125 level. the GLD is trying to hold the major 125 level. Wait for the next minor move to develop.

XLE:

Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63

The XLE closed at 68.43. The XLE continues to trade around the midband on the daily chart. The midband is now 67.17 and the XLE is starting to move up and away from it. It should offer support.

If the XLE can clear 68.75, it should head up to the 75 area.

FXY:

Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83 **
Major level: 89.06 <
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92

The FXY closed at 90.17. It is retesting the upper band on the daily chart. That price level is 90.44.

90.04 is a minor support level. Watch to see if the FXY can clear the upper band, if it can't it should pullback.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91 <
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00

Apple closed at 181.72, taking out the 181.25 level. 175 should be strong support on a pullback.

I have been to continue to buy against support. Continues to be the best strategy.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: AMZN, NFLX, GWW, GS, BIDU, AVGO, BLUE, STZ, DPZ, GD, LRCX, ADBE, PANW, AAPL, VRTX, CME, WEX, RHT, ADSK, CRM, SINA, KLAC, GRUB, VRSK, HLF

Bearish Stocks: DTE, BG, CNI, OMC, AIG, NWE, SIG, HOG, SLCA, NS

Be sure to check earnings release dates.