March 17, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium collected - $1.95
X Long at $14
Total Premium collected - $.89
Short March 18th - $15.50 call @ $.37
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
ETE Long $14.05
Total Premium collected - $1.05
P Long $13.38
Total Premium collected? - $.35
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium collected - $.45
Short March 24th- $4.50 call @ $.25
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The markets were rather quiet until the release of the Fed statement at 2:00 EST.? The S & P 500 had been primarily down all day and found support around 2,010.? After the announcement, the S & P 500 moved up about 22 points.? This all happened within the next hour.
As I said yesterday, I was biased to the upside based on the fact that there had been three days that closed above the 2,015.62 resistance level.? The objective for the S & P was and still is up to the 2,062.50 level.
The fakeout was the fact that the VIX had stopped at 15.56 in the morning.? This was just a few cents under the 15.63 support level.? Once the announcement was made, the VIX immediately dropped under 15.63 and ended up closing at 14.99.
This paves the way to a move back to 12.50 on the VIX. That move would be confirmed if the VIX can close for two days under 14.84.
The market that had the biggest reaction off the Fed announcement was gold.? After selling off most of the day, the GLD ran up about 3 points and closed 47 cents higher on the day.
The GDX had similar price action.? Naturally, this caused the DUST position to sell off. And both the GLD and the GDX are overbought at the moment.? I will continue to be aggressive selling calls against the DUST position.
Today is St. Patrick's day here in the States.? If you do celebrate, enjoy the day!?
It is also the start of the annual NCAA basketball tournament, which always is exciting.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 21.88
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
After breaking under the minor 15.63 support level, the VIX also closed under that level.? It will need two closes under 14.85 to confirm a move down to 12.50.
Higher levels should continue to act as resistance.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,062.50 **
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62 *
Major level - 2,000.00
Minor level - 1,984.38
Minor level - 1,953.12
Major level - 1,937.50
Minor level - 1,921.88
Minor level - 1,890.62
Major level - 1,875.00
2,062.50 is still the active objective for the S & P.?
Lower levels should act as support. 2,015.62 should now be support.? Also, look for some resistance at the 2,046 level.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25 *
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.35
Minor level - 100.78
Major level - 100.00
The QQQ closed at 107.58 yesterday, 55 cents above the 107.03 level.? A close today above 107.03 and the objective should be to 112.50.
Lower levels should act as support. 106.25 should be a strong support now.
TLT:?
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91*
Major level - 128.13 *
Minor level - 127.34
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00
The TLT bounced around the 128.13 level yesterday before closing just above it at 128.26.
Two closes above 128.91 and it should move up to 131.? Look for support at 128.13.
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Major level - 121.88 *
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
A close today above 119.53 and the objective should be to 121.88.
Definitely overbought and due for a pullback.? The pullback may not happen until the GLD hits the top band on the daily chart, which is the 123 area.
XLE:
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28 *
Major level - 62.50
Minor level - 61.72 *
Minor level - 60.16
Major level - 59.38
The XLE bounced up and closed at 62.90 yesterday.? Just 40 cents above the 62.50 level.? It will need two closes above 63.28 to move up to 65.63.
Lower levels should continue to act as support.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple came within a point of the 106.25 level yesterday.? It closed at 105.23.? 103.12 should act as support at this point.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: PNRA, ORLY, BCR, TFX, CB, JNJ, PM, MKC, EL, ALGN, D, TJX, FSLR, COR
Bearish Stocks: REGN, JCOM, VRX, AMGN, JACK, ABCO, MD, AR, KFY
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
