March 19, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $2.80

UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35

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The short call on AMC expired Friday. If you have followed the alerts on AMC, you have now collected $2.80 per share in call premium on the position. This works out to just over 18% of the purchase price. I will be looking to sell more calls this week.

The S & P 500 closed modestly higher on Friday. For the day, the market closed 4.68 higher, at 2,752.01.

The range for the day contracted to 11.88 points. Compared to the average true range of 36.72 points, the range for the day was only 32% of the average.

This tells us to expect an expansion should be expected.

Friday's close, which was 2,752.01, should be a level to watch today.

And for the week, the S & P 500 closed 34.56 points to the downside. The weekly range was 60.43 points. This was also just smaller than the weekly average true range, which is now 69.76. So, the weekly range contracted as well.

The resistance level from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,771 area.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 12 points lower. If the trading remained the same into the open, it would imply an open around 2,740. If the market does bounce from the open, I would expect resistance around Friday's close.

Also, on the downside, watch the major 2,734.40 level to see if support comes in. If it can't a drop to 2,695 would be expected.

Wednesday at 2:00 we will hear from the Fed about interest rates. And earnings continue this week. FDX reports tomorrow after the close.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX ended up closing at 15.75. Watch the 17.19 level. This should offer resistance. If the VIX can clear 17.19, look for a test of 18.75.

Minor support is at 15.23. And minor resistance is at 16.41.

$SPX:

Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30

Watch the minor 2,739.30 level. Two closes under 2,739.30 and I would expect a drop to 2,702.

2,753.93 should now be resistance.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25

The QQQ closed at 171.02. 171.88 should be resistance. And a close today under 171.09 and the QQQ should drop to 169.53.

Both short term 30 & 60 minute charts are in uptrends. So, the QQQ should find support after this pullback.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 <
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13

The IWM closed at 157.80. Watch to see if the IWM can hold 157.03. If it can't a test of 156.25 is the likely scenario.

And I don't see the IWM breaking under 156.25, but if it does, it should head lower. Most likely to the 153 level.

Like the QQQ, the short term charts are bullish. I expect a bounce.

TLT:

Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14 **
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 119.81. At this point, watch to see if the TLT can hold 119.53. If it can't, a drop to 118.75 would expected.

The short term 60 minute just crossed into an uptrend, so I expect the tLT to find support and head back up.

GLD:

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.87

The GLD closed again under the 125 level. It closed at 124.60. Watch to see if it can close under 124.22. If it can, a drop to 122 would be expected.

123.44 is a support level. If the GLD does close under this level for two days, it could drop to 119.

Short term charts remain bearish, so I am biased to the downside.

XLE:

Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63

The XLE closed at 67.31. The XLE continues to trade around the midband on the daily chart. The midband is now 66.69. It should offer support. The XLE continues to trade between the 200 ema and the midband.

This is also between the major 65.63 and 68.75 levels. Sooner or later, the XLE will break out or break down.

Wait for the break. I do expect support at 65.63.

FXY:

Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83 **
Major level: 89.06 <
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92

The FXY closed at 90.40. It is retesting the upper band on the daily chart. That price level is 90.64.

The high for the day was 90.57, within 7 cents of the 90.64 level. We expected a retest of 90.64.

Short could be setting up. If the FXY cannot get through the upper band, I would exect it to drop.

Also, watch the major 90.63 level. If the FXY cannot clear that level, a sell off would be expected.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91 <
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00

Apple closed at 178.02. A test of 175 should be the next minor move. And I would expect strong support at 175.

Continue to buy against support.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: NTES, GWW, AVGO, NVDA, ADBE, ALNY, AMT, ZBRA, VRSNm GRUB, ALL, CTSH, AABA, WEC, LUV, DAL, SQ, CAR, WGO, TRIP, TWTR

Bearish Stocks: TSLA, ZBH, DISm CNI, BG, WBA, WBA, AIG, HOG, DISH, BITA

Be sure to check earnings release dates.