March 29, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $3.10
Short March 29th-$15 Call @ ($0.30)

UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35

VRX Long at $16.40
Short April 6th-$16.50 Call @ ($0.50)
Premium Collected - $0.50

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As a reminder, today is a shortened trading session, with the markets closing at 2:00 EST. And tomorrow, the markets are closed for Good Friday.

Because of the market closure tomorrow, the weekly options expire after the close today.

And we have one position that expires today and that is the short $15 call on AMC. AMC closed yesterday about $1.50 under the strike, so the odds favor the calls expiring worthless.

Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed to the downside 7.62 points. It closed at 2,605.

The range for the today was 39.59 points. And the average true range is 45.23 points, so yesterday formed a contraction. This tells us to expect an expansion.

The range for the month is 216. And the monthly average true range is 118 points. So, we can see that the range is expanding.

The resistance area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,608 to 2,613 area.

And yesterday's high came in at 2,632.65, about three points lower than the 2,635 level I mentioned yesterday.

Watch the 2,602.50 level today. This should be a short term support level. And 2,615 should also be a level to watch.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 7 points to the upside.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44 **
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94

The VIX closed at 22.87 yesterday. 23.44 should be resistance. And the downside objective should be to 18.75.

A break under 21.88 and the VIX should continue lower.

$SPX:

Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75 **
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00

Support should continue to be at 2,602.50. The S & P 500 should test the 2,578 level. But, short term the market is oversold.

Also, watch the 2,627 level today. If the S & P can take out this level, it should continue higher.

QQQ:

Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

The QQQ closed at 157.25. The QQQ should test the 150 level.

159.38 is a minor resistance level. And if the QQQ closes under this level today, it will also confirm a drop to 150.

Minor support is at 156.25.

IWM:

Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88

The IWM closed at 150.31, just 31 cents above the major 150.00 level. I am still looking for support at 150.

153.13 should offer resistance.

TLT:

Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19

The TLT closed at 121.31. Yesterday's high came within 24 cents of the 121.88 level.

120.31 should continue to offer support. Watch 121.48 in the short term. To move higher the TLT will need to clear this level.

GLD:

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.87

The GLD closed at 125.73. A close today under 125.78 and the GLD should test 125.

125 should be support. 126.56 should offer resistance.

XLE:

Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63

The XLE closed at 66.02. Looking for a retest of the 65.63 level again.

67.19 should also continue to offer support. The 60 minute chart was moved into a uptrend.

FXY:

Major level: 92.19
Minor level: 92.00
Minor level: 91.61
Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83 **
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09

The FXY finally broke. It closed at 89.59. 89.84 is a minor resistance level. And if the FXY closes under 89.84 today, it should test 87.50.

Resistance should be at 90.63 now.

AAPL:

Minor level: 178.91 <
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50

Apple closed at 166.48. Biased for a move down to 150. And 168.75 and 175 should be resistance.

Apple is still in an uptrend on its 60 minute chart, but is close to moving into a downtrend. If that happens, it should help confirm the downside objectives.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: BURL, KSU, HLF, MPC, FSLR, APC, CLR, COP, HFC, DK, WPM, WLL, DO, CROX

Bearish Stocks: TSLA, COO, ADS, WHR, CB, CLX, ZBH, KMB, DIS, ALB, CELG, WBA, LAMR, CVS, CERN, PZZA, WAGE

Be sure to check earnings release dates.