March 4, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46

FEYE Long at $17.18
FEYE Short March 8th - $17.50 Call @ $0.30
........................................................................................

The short $9 call on RIG expired on Friday, allowing you to book the profit. This was not a huge premium, but it is better in your pocket than not.

One day after closing out the month of February, Friday closed out the week.

And the week closed out with a 19.20 point gain. The S & P 500 closed the week at 2,803.69.

This now puts the S & P 500 within 10 points of the 2,812.50 objective. And within 11 points of the February high which was 2,813.49. And we are biased for the high to be violated.

But, I did just mention this last Friday ... "And at this point, I don't see conditions in place for a pullback to happen ... just yet."

So, the question is what conditions should we look for to suggest a reversal in the market?

Before I address this, I need to mention that Friday's daily price bar closed at 79% of the bar. This does suggest that Friday's high of 2,808.02 should be violated before the low of 2,787.38.

And the support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,798 to 2,800 area.

Last week's weekly price bar closed at 74.5% of its range. Like Friday's daily bar, the high of 2,813.49 should be violated before the low.

And the support area from last week's price bar is in the 2,794 to 2,804 area.

The key as to whether this bull move continues rests with the major 2,812.50 level.

If the S & P 500 does take out 2,812.50, I expect it to continue higher. And taking out 2,812.50 would indicate that the market should retest that level after a pullback.

Assuming the market does take out 2,812.50, the next major level will be 2,968.80.

This was the level that the S & P 500 failed at back in September of last year.

So, the 2,812.50 level is critical to watch in the short term.

And pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 7 points higher. This projects an open to within two points of the key 2,812.50 level.

Earnings do continue this week.

This afternoon we will hear from CRM. And Thursday afternoon, we will get earnings from Costco.

And Friday morning we will hear from WEX.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed out at 13.57 last Friday. It closed 16 cents above the low of the day.

This puts the VIX within 1.07 of the 12.50 objective.

And with the VIX now back to historically strong support, we need to monitor the VIX for a bounce.

As you know, a bounce would mean the market would sell off.

But, at this point, higher levels should be resistance. Namely, I would expect resistance at 14.45 and 14.06.

SPX:

Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65

The S & P 500 closed just above the 2,797.90 level. This should indicate that this level would be support on a pullback.

Both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain in uptrends which do suggest that buying against support is still the viable strategy.

The projected open should be around 2,810. So watch the 2,797 level for support.

QQQ:

Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69

The QQQ closed at 174.39 last Friday. The high was 174.65 which was within 35 cents of the 175 objective.

Like the S & P 500, both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain firmly bullish.

173.44 should be a minor support level. And technical support is around 173.

IWM:

Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44

The IWM closed at 158.24. The objective should be up to 162.50.

And Friday's low was 156.75 which was 43 cents above the daily midband on 156.32.

It was also just above the major 156.25 level.

At this point, I would expect support at 157.81.

Both the 30 and 60 minute charts remain strongly bullish.

TLT:

Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 118.66. The next level to watch is 117.58. Two closes under 117.58 and the TLT should drop to 117.19.

120.31 should be resistance.

And the 117.19 is key on the downside. If the TLT drop under 117.19 for two days, it could drop to 112.

GLD:

Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75

The GLD closed at 121.88. It closed exactly on the major level.

Two closes under 121.10 and the GLD should drop to 120.31.

119.75 is the midband on the daily chart and should offer support on a test. A break under it would indicate the GLD should continue lower.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 66.45. A close today above 66.41 and the XLE should head up to 68.75.

65.65 should now be a strong support level. Both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain bullish.

And technical support is around 65.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72 ***
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97

The FXY closed at 85.19. It dropped 0.36 on the day. Continuing to accelerate to the downside which we have been looking for.

But it is oversold short term, so a bounce would be unusual.
85.55 is a minor support level and a bounce could happen.

Short term charts remain bearish. And the daily chart is also bearish. This would suggest strong technical resistance at the 86.30 level.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00

Predicted High: 176.83
Predicted Low: 172.11

You may have noticed that I now provide predictive levels for Apple. Friday, the predicted high was 175.11 and the actual high was 175.15.

The predictive low was 171.19 and the actual low was 172.89.

These levels can help you if you trade intra day. I will continue to provide them.

For example last Friday, Apple sold off in the morning and dropped to the low of the day, which happened to be right on the lower band on the 3 minute chart.

I like looking at a 3 minute chart for intra day trading.

After it found support at the lower band, Apple reversed and ran up to the high which was within 4 cents of our projection.

It turned out to be a move of a shade over $3. With the leverage of trading weekly calls that expire after the close, this move probably made at least 100%.

Both the short term 30 and 60 minute charts remain bullish.

176.56 should offer some resistance.

172.66 should offer strong technical support.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CMG, BA, ULTA, MA, COST, SHOP, CRM, OLED, HON, UHS, ALXN, DG, MSFT, DG, AXP, PYPL, NKE

Bearish Stocks: NTES, STMP, WLK, GDOT, AN, MD, TWTR, LOGM, EZA

Be sure to check earnings release dates.