March 8, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46

FEYE Long at $17.18
FEYE Short March 8th-$17.50 Call @ $0.30

FCX Long at $12.74
FCX Short March 15th - $13 Call @ $0.24

TSLA Long March 15th - $280 Call @ $5.70
TSLA Short March 15th - $287.50 Call @ $2.70
.........................................................................................

Today, there is one position that expires. And that is the short $17.50 call on FEYE. FEYE settled yesterday at 16.17, so the odds favor this position expiring worthless. You should book the profit on this position at the close today.

The selloff continued yesterday. The market closed 22.52 points to the downside. It closed at 2,748.93.

And the daily range of 28.16 points did exceed the average daily range of 26.35 points.

This does tell us that the selling pressure is intensifying. But, the down to up volume suggested it would.

And the price is back to the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 2,736.09 and yesterday's low of 2,739.09 was exactly 3 points above it.

This of course, is a key level. And if the S & P 500 cannot hold this level, puts will be suggested.

The daily bar closed at 35% of the daily range which favors the odds of violating yesterday's low before the high.

And pre open the S & P 500 is trading about 12 points lower. So, today's projected open should gap down below yesterday's low.

This would also put the market below the lower band on the 10 minute chart which is 2,739.09. The projected open, assuming this trading holds up until the market open, would be at 2,736.93, or about 3 points below this level.

This would certainly suggest that the market is oversold. And the bearish gap open could also be a nice of exhaustion.

But we do know two things for today.

We know we have the key level of the midband of the daily chart which is 2,736.09 and is right around where the market should open. This level should be support until it is violated.

And we have the lower band on the 10 minute chart which I mentioned above.

With an expected open under the lower band, I would expect a retest of that level assuming the market does bounce.

If we scale back to the weekly chart, we see that is it decidedly bearish.

As it is shaping up, the week would close as a bearish engulfment which quite frankly is not a good sign.

The midpoint of the weekly bar so far is 2,777.99 and yesterday's close was 29 points below it.

To negate this bearish price action, the market would have to rally back over 40 points, assuming the market continues to trade lower into the open.

However, we do get the Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 EST which, as you know, can be a big market mover.

Resistance from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,753 to 2,757 area.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed out at 16.57 yesterday. This now suggests that if the VIX can close above 16.41 today, it should test 18.75.

I suspect that this market pullback is not a tremendous shock considering that the VIX fell back to historic lows. In fact, the pivot low, before the VIX rally was 13.38 or 88 cents above our major support level.

At this point, the key level for the VIX is 17.97. If the VIX cannot clear this level, I would expect it to sell off.

If it does clear 17.97, look for the move up to 18.75.

15.63 is a major support level.

SPX:

Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 < Target Hit!
Minor level: 2,792.98 **
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65

Since hitting our target of 2,812.50, the S & P 500 has sold off with four consecutive days of lower closes.

At this point, the downside objective should be to 2,734.40. And quite frankly, we are only 14 points from it.

If the market does close under 2,734.40 for two days, a drop to 2,697 would be the next logical move.

And the midband on the daily chart is a key level to monitor.

QQQ:

Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 < Hit!!!
Minor level: 173.44 **
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94

The QQQ closed at 171.43 yesterday. This now suggests that if the QQQ closes under 173.44 today, it should drop to 168.75.

I would expect support at the 168.75 level.

Even with this selloff, both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain bullish.

With a break under 172, it should now be resistance.

IWM:

Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44

The IWM closed at 151.68. At this point, 150 should be tested. A bounce at 150 is possible.

And with a break under the midband which is 156.39, it should now be resistance.

The 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend which does indicate that short term momentum has shifted to the downside.

TLT:

Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 121.06. The TLT is within 82 cents of the major 121.88 level. A close above 120.70 would certainly confirm the move up to 121.88.

120.70 should be support. And 120.31 as well.

GLD:

Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75

The GLD closed at 121.21. It closed just under the major 121.88 level again. It will have to close above 121.88 to move higher.

The GLD is trying to gain some footing here. However, if it breaks under 120.31, it should head lower.

The midband is 119.68 and I would expect it to act as support.

Same as yesterday.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 65.12. It closed back under the major 65.63 level for a second day.

A close under 65.23 and I expect a drop to 64 which should be support.

FXY:

Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97

The FXY closed at 85.43. The FXY continues to bounce from its over sold condition.

It still needs two closes above 85.36 to move up to 85.94.

85.74 should be a resistance level.

AAPL:

Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00

Predicted High: 174.61
Predicted Low: 170.39

Apple closed at 172.50 yesterday. 175 should be resistance now.

I expect a drop to the 171 area. And if Apple takes out 170.31, I would expect it to continue lower.

175 should now offer some resistance.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CMG, BA, ULTA, MA, COST, SHOP, CRM, OLED, HON, UHS, ALXN, DG, MSFT, DG, AXP, PYPL, NKE

Bearish Stocks: NTES, STMP, WLK, GDOT, AN, MD, TWTR, LOGM, EZA

Be sure to check earnings release dates.