May 11, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $1.65

TEVA Long $18.06
Premium collected - $1.46
Short May 11th - $19 Call @ $.36

KMI Long September $16 call @ $1.00

ADTN Long August $15 Call @ $.75
ADTN Short August $17 Call @ $.35

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As I mentioned yesterday, you should be holding the short $19 call on TEVA, that expires today, if you followed the last alert.  TEVA closed yesterday at $19.24, or 24 cents above the strike.  Look for a separate email if I suggest an adjustment.

The market continued its follow through yesterday, closing 25.28 points to the upside, at 2,723.07.

This is now the second close above 2,675.83, which puts the objective back to 2,734.40.  With yesterday's high at 2,726.11, the market is less than 10 points away.

But, on a larger scale, the ley level was 2,695.25.  And the S & P 500 had had two closes over that level.  This puts the objective for the larger timeframe back up to the 2,812.50 line.

On the weekly chart for the S & P 500, the high for the weekly was yesterday's high at 2,726.11 and the low is 2,655.20.

The range for the week, so far is 70.91.

This means that the midpoint for the week is 2,690.66.  The market would have to drop 33 points today for the week to turn bearish.

A close above the midpoint, and towards the upper end of the weekly bar is bullish.

And should we have a bullish weekly price bar, which the odds favor, the weekly chart will form a bullish engulfment.  This would greatly enhance the bullish upside objectives I have outlined above.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 4 points to the upside.  

I mentioned the short term 30 minute chart for the S & P 500 and how it is close to crossing into an uptrend.

Yesterday, it did in fact cross into an uptrend.  The 200 ema is 2,669.51 and the 253 day average is 2,669.41.

This also suggests that the market should continue higher.  And buying oversold conditions off the shorter term charts is the best strategy at the moment.

NVDA did report last evening and is trading about $5 to the downside.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX: 
 
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00 
Minor level: 23.44 
Minor level: 20.31 
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94 

The VIX closed at 13.23.  The low for the day was at 12.92, just 42 cents above the 12.50 objective.

"Will the VIX break under 12.50 again?  I don't know,  but I would expect support at the level on the first test."  This is from yesterday and we are right above the major level.

A bounce in the VIX here would not shock me.

Minor resistance should still be at 14.06.  

$SPX: 

Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 **
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75 
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10 
Minor level: 2,558.58 

The objective should be to 2,734.40.  Minor resistance is at 2,744.10.

Minor support is now at 2,707.50.  And 2,714 to 2,715 area should provide support from yesterday's daily bar.

QQQ:  

Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63 **
Major level: 162.50 
Minor level: 159.38 
Minor level: 153.13 
Major level: 150.00  
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

The QQQ closed at 169.62.  The objective should be still be up to 175.

168.75 should offer strong support.  And 171.88 could offer some resistance.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 155.47 **
Minor level: 153.91 
Major level: 153.13 
Minor level: 152.35

The IWM closed at 159.53.  The IWM closed above the 159.38 objective.

The next level to the upside is 160.16.  158.38 should offer minor support.  And minor resistance is at 160.94.

TLT:  

Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 
Major level: 120.31 
Minor level: 119.92 
Minor level: 119.14 
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 118.93.  The TLT reclaimed the 118.75 level.

118.55 should offer minor support.  And look for the TLT to continue higher, if it can hold the 118.75 level.

GLD:  

Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 
Minor level: 127.35 
Minor level: 125.78 
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61 **
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <

The GLD closed at 125.18, just above the major 125 level. This level should now offer support.  And 124.61 should offer minor support.

Two closes above 125.78 and the GLD should test 128.13.

XLE: 

Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00  
Minor level: 74.22 
Minor level: 72.66 
Major level: 71.88 

The XLE closed at 76.62.  The objective should now be to 78.13.

75 should offer major support. And 75.78 should offer minor support.

FXY:

Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06 
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28 <
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70 **
Major level: 87.50 
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72

The FXY closed at 87.57.  The FXY is bouncing from an oversold condition.

87.50 should now offer strong support.  If 87.50 cannot hold, the FXY should drop.

AAPL:

Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 
Major level: 175.00 

Apple closed at 189.31.  A close today above 189.06 and look for Apple to hit 193.75.

Apple is overbought short term.  And a pullback would be an opportunity to go long.

WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, BIDU, PANW, WYNN, MA, RHT, RACE, VMW, KEX, DXCM, LVS, OXY, HFC, DNKN

Bearish Stocks: TSLA, REGN, NTES, AVGO, CMI, ATHN, LOGM, WDC, BG, LUV, MDP, BERY, CLVS, WAGE

Be sure to check earnings release dates.