May 18, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $1.65

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The S & P 500 managed to close above the 2,714.88 level for the second straight day.  This suggests that the upside objective for the market is a retest of the 2,734.40 
level.

For the day though, the S & P 500 formed another doji candle, which can mean indecision.  And the range for the day was only 20.60 points.  Compared to the average true range of 30.58, the range contracted 67%.

The close should be a level to watch today.  And that price is 2,720.13.

The short term 30 and 60 minute charts for the S & P 500 remain bullish, so bias is still to the upside.

For the week, the S & P 500 has a high so far of 2,742.10 and a low of 2,701.91.  The range for the week is only 40.19 points.  Compared to the weekly average true range of 75.86 points, there is a contraction for the week.

Also, the midpoint of the weekly price bar is 2,722.01.  And yesterday's close was just under it.  The market will have to close above 2,722.01 for a bull candle to form.  So, what this level today as well.

With the VIX back down to long term support, a bounce could happen.  Buy, I do feel that if it does, it should stall out at resistance.

Resistance should be at 13.67 and 14.06.  A reversal to the downside off of one these levels would indicate that the market should move higher.

Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,720 to 2,722 area.

Pre open the futures are trading to the upside about 3.50 points.

Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX: 
 
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00 
Minor level: 23.44 
Minor level: 20.31 
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94 

The VIX closed at 13.43.  Resistance should be at 14.06 and 13.67.

If the VIX cannot hold the 13.67 line, I would expect a retest of 12.50 again.

$SPX: 

Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83 
Major level: 2,656.30 
Minor level: 2,636.75 
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10 
Minor level: 2,558.58 

The S & P 500 closed above the 2,714.88 level for the second day.  This level should act as support.  And the objective should be back to 2,734.40.

And 2,702.60 should still offer minor support.

Short term charts remain bullish, so buying against support is still the viable strategy.

QQQ:  

Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63 **
Major level: 162.50 
Minor level: 159.38 
Minor level: 153.13 
Major level: 150.00  
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50

The QQQ closed at 168.33.  This is just under the 168.75 level.  And 168.36 should be a level to watch today.

If the QQQ can recoupd 168.36, look for that level to offer support.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38 
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 155.47 **
Minor level: 153.91 
Major level: 153.13 
Minor level: 152.35

The IWM closed at 161.66.  The IWM came within 50 cents of the 162.50 objective.

160.94 should offer minor support.  And minor resistance is at 164.06. 

Buy against support.

TLT:  

Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 
Major level: 120.31 
Minor level: 119.92 
Minor level: 119.14 
Major level: 118.75 
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80 **
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63

The TLT closed at 116.21.  The TLT is now within 40 cents of the 115.63 objective.

116.41 should offer resistance.  And trading to the shortside is still the best strategy.

GLD:  

Major level: 128.13 
Minor level: 127.35 
Minor level: 125.78 
Major level: 125.00 
Minor level: 124.61 
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 123.05 **
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31

The GLD closed 122.36, closing under the minor 123.44 level. 123.44 should be resistance.

121.88 should be the objective.  Higher levels should now offer resistance. Look for resistance at 123.44 or 125.  Downside objective should be to 118 - 120.

XLE: 

Major level: 81.25 <<<
Minor level: 80.47
Minor level: 78.91
Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00  
Minor level: 74.22 
Minor level: 72.66 

The XLE closed at 78.72.  The XLE took out the 78.13 objective.  What now?

The XLE also closed just above the upper band on its daily chart.  That level is 78.67.  Overbought on the daily chart.

78.91 is a minor resistance level.  78.13 is minor support.

FXY:

Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70 
Major level: 87.50 
Minor level: 87.31 
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72 **
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94

The FXY closed at 86.46.  This was the first close under 86.72.  If the FXY closes under 86.72 today, it could drop longer term to the 84 level.

Higher levels should be resistance. Namely, 86.72 and 87.50.

AAPL:

Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 
Major level: 175.00 

Apple closed at 186.99.  Watch the major 187.50 level.  If Apple cannot get back above 187.50, look for a drop to as low as 175.

Minor support should be at 186.72. 

Both short term charts, the 30 & 60 minute remain bullish.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, BA, GWW, ALGN, BIDU, NVDA, ILMN, ADBE, PAN, BABA, AAPL, BLUE, RHT, CAT, ACN, ADSK, CR, CVX

Bearish Stocks: CHTR, DTE, THO, BUD, CELG, AEP, D, UAL, PZZA, LB, JD

Be sure to check earnings release dates.