May 28, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

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Today begins the short trading week and the last week of May. Not only does Friday close out the, but it also closes out the month of May.

As of Friday, the S & P 500 was trading under the upper band on the monthly chart. The upper band now reads 2,868.74 and the market closed Friday at 2,826.06.

As you can see, the S & P is about 40 points under the upper band.

Watch the upper band this week to see if the market can close above it.

Even though the market seemed bearish last week, it ended the week with an inside bar.

This price action suggests a few things.

The first is that the range contracted for the week. The range for the week ended up being 63.30 points. And the weekly average true range is 74.04 points.

This price action tells us that we should get an expansion.

And with and inside bar, you want to monitor the close, which was 2,826.06.

The other key levels from last week is in the 2,834 to 2,837 area.

After the 34 point sell off on Thursday, the S & P managed to close Friday slightly higher.

Friday closed 3.82 points higher, with a close at 2,826.06.

The S & P has managed to close above the major 2,812.50 level after dropping under it on Thursday.

To move higher the S & P will need to close above the minor 2,832.03 level for two days. If it can do that, the objective would be back up to 2,890.60.

Watch to see if the S & P can reclaim the minor 2,832 level today.

The daily chart for the S & P 500 is still in an uptrend. And Friday's close was above the midband, which should act as support. The midband is 2,776.04. So, Friday's close was about 50 points above it. It should offer support on a test.

The S & P 500 is trading slightly lower before the open.
Tomorrow after the close, we will get earnings form PANW. And Thursday after the close we hear form COST.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 21.88 <
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72

The VIX closed Friday at 15.85. So, it will still need two closes above 16.41 to test 18.75.

There is still minor resistance at 17.19. And it the VIX can break under 15.63, look for it to move lower.

The minor level under 15.63 is 14.84. If the VIX does close under 14.84, then a retest of 12.50 would be likely.

SPX:

Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,949.25
Minor level: 2,910.15
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50 < Hit
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30

The key level now will be the minor 2,832.03 level. Watch to see if the market can move above it.

Minor support should be at 2,817.40. And on the upside, 2,841.80 could offer resistance.

2,830 should be a support level from Friday's daily bar.

QQQ:

Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69 **
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19

The QQQ closed at 178.16. The QQQ is holding onto the minor 178.13 line.

If it can hold this level, it could bounce sharply. If it can't I would expect a drop to 175.

Minor support is at 177.34 and 179.69 is minor resistance.

IWM:

Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44

The IWM closed at 150.80. The key now will be if the major 150 level can hold as support.

If it can and the IWM closes above 151.56, it should test the 156 level.

146.88 is the lower level that I do expect the IWM to break under. If it does, you can expect lower prices.

The IWM is oversold in the short term.

TLT:

Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05

The TLT closed out at 127.78. If the TLT can hold the minor 127.34 level, I would expect a test of 128.13.

The TLT is over bought, so if it can't clear 128.13, it will most likely pull back.

The TLT is also right up against the upper band on the daily chart, which is 128.32.

GLD:

Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31< < HIT
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75

The GLD closed at 121.30. With a close above 120.70, I would expect the GLD to test 121.88.

120.90 should be minor support now. And 121.48 is minor resistance.

The 30 and 60 minute charts have both crossed back into downtrends.

XLE:

Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38

The XLE closed at 61.62. 61.33 is still minor support.

Breaking under 62.50 is very bearish. For the XLE to move higher, it will have to clear the 62.50 level.

Short term the XLE is oversold and could bounce. Technical resistance is at 64.

AAPL:

Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38 **
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00

Apple closed at 178.97. If Apple can hold the minor 178.13 level, it should bounce.

I would expect strong resistance at 187.50. If it does clear 187.50, I don't see Apple going much higher than 200.

Ultimately, I believe Apple will drop to 150.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: LLL, SBAC, AMT, CME, SAGE, KMB, HSY, RACE, ROKU, ED, WELL, WING

Bearish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, ADBE, GS, TSLA, FDX, NVDA, FFIV, CXO, CTXS, RH, PSX, VLO, XOM