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May 3, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

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..........................................................................................

Yesterday, the S & P 500 rallied to close up for the day 16.13 points, at 2,081.43.

The VIX, which had peaked at 17.09 on Friday, sold off over 7% and closed at 15.76.?

I would have preferred to see it close under 15.63, but that was not the case.

15.63 has acted as support and pre market, the S & P 500 is off 14 points as I write this.

The VIX should try and test the 18.75 level.? But, watch for the VIX to hit over
resistance at one of the levels.? If it does, the market should find support and reverse.

This week, 13.5% of the S & P 500 companies report earnings.? Not quite as much as last week, but still a large number of companies.?

Here are the key levels for the markets.

VIX:

Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.06 *
Major level - 12.50

18.75 should be the objective for the VIX.? 17.19 is still minor resistance.

17.97 should also offer some resistance.? As for support, it should be at 15.63 and 14.84.
?
S & P 500 Cash Index:?

Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12 *
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,046.88 *
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00

2,066.40 should still be a minor support level.? Also, minor support at 2,074.20.

If the market can find support at 2,070.30, I would expect a fast move up.?

Nasd 100 (QQQ):?

Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46 *
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13

The QQQ did reclaim the 106.25 level yesterday.? 105.46 should act as support.?

However, if it does close under the 105.46 level for two days, expect a retest of 103.13.

107.81 should be resistance.

TLT:?

Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13 *
Minor level - 127.35 *
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00

The TLT closed back under the 128.13 level yesterday, at 127.82.? 127.35 should act as support. If the TLT were to fall, I would not expect it to drop under 125.

Two closes above 128.91 and it should retest 131.25.

GLD:

Major level - 125.00
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96

Objective should be to 125.? 121.88 should be support at this point.

Lower levels should continue to act as support.

XLE:

Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50

Major support should be at 65.63.? Minor support is at 67.19 and 66.80.

For the XLE to move to 65.63, it will need two closes under 67.96.

Apple:

Major levels for Apple are 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.

Apple did have two closes under 93.75, so I would expect a move lower.

However, it is tremendously oversold on a short term basis. We know that because it is trading under the lower extreme bollinger band on the 60 minute chart.

A bounce here would not be unexpected.? A rally up to around 100 would a great area for a short.

Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, LMT, BCR, ULTA, BDX, CLB, RTN, LLL, NOC
?
Bearish Stocks: CMG, AGN, BWLD, AAPL, PRGO, TGT, VRSK, SWKS
?
Be sure to check earnings release dates.

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