November 14, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
MDT AlertWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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With the election over here in the States, the markets reacted by having their biggest one week gain in quite a long time.? The DOW ended up leading with a weekly gain of 5.35%.? The S & P 500 ended up 3.8% for the week.
And the laggard was the NASD Composite, up only 3.78%. I say only because the NASD includes the FANG stocks that were all down for the week.
The gain was even larger than the move after the BREXIT vote and quite frankly larger than I would have expected.? The reason is that the money flow is actually negative on the daily chart for the S & P 500.? In fact, money flow is negative for all major markets on their daily charts.
After the BREXIT vote, the money flow was actually positive as opposed to now.
The question now is where do we go from here?
With the strength of the weekly price bar and the fact that it was on strong volume, a follow through should be expected.
I do think this sets up a move to 2,250.? You may recall that I have mentioned that price level as the ultimate objective for the S & P 500.
But, don?t expect a move straight up to that level. There will be pullbacks along the way.? Especially given the fact that the VIX is back to its longer term support level.
The short term 60 minute chart for the S & P 500 is very close to crossing into an uptrend. When that happens, it will also help to propel the market higher.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 21.88
Minor level ? 21.10
Minor level ? 19.53
Major level - 18.75 *
Minor level - 17.96
Minor level - 16.41
Major level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.85
Minor level - 13.28
Major level - 12.50
The VIX closed at 14.17 on Friday.? For the week, the VIX was down 37%. At this point, a retest of 12.50 should be expected.
Short term, 14.06 is a strong support level and look for 13.28 to offer some support.
$SPX:
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38
Minor level - 2,203.12
Major level - 2,187.50
Minor level - 2,171.88
Minor level - 2,140.62 *
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
2,187.50 should be the objective. If it can be cleared on this run, it sets up the move to 2,250.
2,156 should offer support. And 2,172 should offer short term resistance.
QQQ:?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63 *
Minor level - 114.84
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
The QQQ closed just above the 115.63 level Friday.? It closed at 115.80.? To move higher, the QQQ will need two closes above 116.41.
Minor support is at 114.84.? And 117.19 could offer minor resistance.
TLT:?
Major level - 134.38
Minor level - 133.60
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level ? 130.46
Minor level ? 128.91
Major level ? 128.13
Major level ? 125.00
Major level ? 121.88 *
Major level ? 118.75
The TLT closed just above the major 121.88 level on Friday.? It closed at 122.04.
Two closes under 121.88, and the TLT could drop as low as 113.? 120.31 is a minor support level.? 123.44 should be minor resistance.
GLD: ?
Major level ? 125.00 *
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66 *
Major level ? 121.88
Minor level ? 121.10
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75
Minor level ? 117.97
Major level ? 115.63
The GLD has dropped to almost the 115.63 level.? At this point, resistance should be at 118. And based on the bearish weekly price bar, continuation to the downside should be expected.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88 *
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53 *
Major level - 68.75 *
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The XLE is holding just above the 68.75 support level.? The high last week was 71.28.
As I mentioned, the high last week was just below the midband on the weekly chart, which is 71.82. This is within pennies of the major 71.88 resistance level.
Price has to clear this level or a pullback should be expected.
FXY:
Major level: 96.88
Minor level: 96.49
Minor level: 95.70
Major level: 95.31
Minor level: 94.92
Minor level: 94.14
Major level: 93.75
Minor level: 93.36
Minor level: 92.58
Major level: 92.19 *
Minor level: 91.80
Minor level: 91.02
Major level: 90.63
The FXY continues to sell off.? It closed at 90.37 on Friday. Next level down is 89. Expect resistance at 91.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple is trying to hold the 106.25 level. ??Watch this level because if Apple finds support here, it should head up.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, MLM, GS, GD, BA, CMI, ACN, CVX, JPM, MET
Bearish Stocks:? TSLA, BIDU, CLX, KMB, CTRP, FSLR, JD, G
Be sure to check earnings release dates
