November 16, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

The short $14.50 call on AA was assigned on Friday. The 5.5% profit was booked for the 8 day holding period.

I also suggested a new position. It was a debit spread on GILD. The expiration date is Dedember 11th.

Now onto to the markets.

The S & P 500 closed the week out with a 48.14 point gain. Friday, the S & P 500 closed at 3,585.15.

The range for the day was 41.09 points and the day closed out at 79% of the range of the daily price bar.

This suggets that the high of 3,593.66 should be violated before the low of 3,552.57.

And this was another range contraction. The range was only 64% of the daily average true range.

So, after the long range bar from Monday, there have been four consecutive range contractions.

This does suggest we will see an expansion.

Support from Friday's daily bar should be in the 3,569 to 3,573 area.

Pre open, the S & P is trading about 38 points higher based on the success of Moderna's Covid vaccine.

This projects to an open around 3,623 or about 29 points above Friday's high. What for support around the midpoint of the projected gap, which is around 3,608.

The projected open should be about 23 points below last week's high of 3,645.99.

The weekly price bar closed at 54.6% of the range of the weekly bar. And the weekly bar formed a doji, so watch to see if last week's high can be violated on a continued move higher.

A violation would suggest the market will head higher.

And the key weekly levels to watch are the high, close and low. Respectively these levels are 3,645.99, 3,585.15 and 3,511.91.

Earnings do continue this week.

This afternoon, we get earnings from BIDU. Wednesday after the close, we hear from NVDA.

And Thursday after the close, we get earnings from NTES, WORK and INTU.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38 <
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78 **
Major level: 25.00 <
Minor level: 24.22 **
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88

The VIX closed at 23.10. The VIX closed 2.25 points lower.

The VIX had the first close under the minor 24.22 level. A close today under this level and it should head down to 21.88.

And the VIX is still below the midband, which is 28.10. This level should still be resistance.

And technical resistance is at 25.50.

S & P 500:

Major level: 3,749.80
Minor level: 3,710.75
Minor level: 3,632.65 **
Major level: 3,593.60 <
Minor level: 3,554.55 **
Minor level: 3,476.45
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80

The S & P closed at 3,585.15. The S & P closed 48.14 points higher.

And the S & P managed to reclaim the 3,554.55 level. This level should be support.

And the S & P should open above the major 3,593.60 level. Watch to see if the
S & P can clear the minor 3,632.65 level.

If the S & P can clear this level, then 3,593.60 should be support.

Two closes above 3,632.65 and the S & P should head up to 3,749.80.

3,560 should be a technical support level.

QQQ:

Minor level: 295.31
Major level: 293.75 <
Minor level: 292.19
Minor level: 289.06 **
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31
Major level: 268.75

The QQQ closed at 290.93. The QQQ closed 2.53 higher.

A close today above 289.06 and the QQQ should test 293.75.

Like the S & P, the QQQ took out the midband on the 60 minute chart. This level should now be support. The midband is 283.

289 should be support from yesterday's daily bar.

IWM:

Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44

The IWM closed at 173.50. The IWM closed 3.52 higher on the day.

The 175 level should be the objective and I would expect the IWM to take it out.

Support should be at 170.31 and 168.75.

The IWM took out the upper band on the 60 minute chart. That level is 177.50.

Looking for a retest of the upper band.

171 should be technical support.

TLT:

Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 155.47 **
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13

The TLT closed at 158.16. It closed .21 lower. Watch to see if the TLT can hold the 157.03 level.

The TLT would still need two closes under 155.47 to drop.

The TLT is oversold and is at the lower band on the 60 minute chart. That level is 153.84. The TLT is making the expected bounce from the oversold condition.

160 should be technical resistance and is the midband.

GLD:

Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38 <
Minor level: 183.60
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 174.25 **
Minor level: 172.70
Major level: 171.89

The GLD closed at 177.16. The GLD closed 1.20 higher on the day.

The GLD recouped the 175 level. Watch the minor 178.91 and 174.25 levels.

The GLD is back under the midband on the 60 minute chart. This level is 178 and should be resistance. A drop to the lower band, which is 173 should be the objective.

XLE:

Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03 **
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.90
Major level: 28.13

The XLE closed at 33.88. The XLE closed 1.19 higher on the day.

The XLE is now within 34 cents of the target, which is 34.37. Watch to see if the XLE can clear this level today. If it can, it should become support.

The XLE rallied back to the upper band on the 60 minute chart, which is what we were looking for. That level is now 34.10.

The XLE should take out the upper band at the open. So, watch to see if this level holds on a sell off.

AAPL:

Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 121.88
Minor level: 115.63 **
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 109.13
Minor level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00

Apple closed at 119.26. Apple closed $..05 higher.

The objective for Apple should be up to the 125 level.

And look for support at 115.63. And technical support around 119.

Apple cleared the midband on the 60 minute chart. That level is 116 and should now be support.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: LRCX, ASML, RH, ANTM, RNG, MLM, PEN, ULTA, ACN, CMI, KLAC, V, MCK, CAT, FIVE, ALXN, KEYS, ETN, DVA, ABC, MNST, SHAK,

Bearish Stocks: BIIB, EHTH, INTC, ARCH, SPDN, SUM