November 17, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO Long at $19.93
Premium collected - $1.25
NCR Long Jan 16 $27 Call
Net Debit - $.80
X Long at $14
Premium collected - $.89
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
Short Nov $14 Call - $.45 collected
ETE Long at $19.50
Short Nov $20 call - $.60 collected
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The markets shrugged off the negative news out of Europe and the S & P 500 rallied just over 30 points yesterday.
And it appears that the markets are set to open higher this morning.
With the S & P 500 closing at 2,053.19 yesterday, it would meant that if it closed above the 2,039 level today, the objective should be to 2,062.50.
I would expect the 2059 level to offer some resistance.? This is the midpoint of last week's bearish weekly bar.
And I would also expect that 2,070 level would offer some resistance.
Tomorrow is the release of the Fed meeting notes.
Could this event spoil this rally?
I don't know, but I do expect excess volatility.
Monitoring the VIX should help to determine if the upmove will continue or stall out.
Two closes under 17.19 and the VIX should head down to around the 14 level.
Two closes above 20.31 and the VIX should try and move up to 25.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:?
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31 *
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
I do expect a rally in the VIX.? The question is what level should it fail?
25 should be strong resistance.? 23.44 should also be strong resistance.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,093.80
Minor level - 2,085.98
Minor level - 2,070.33 *
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,054.68
Minor level - 2,039.12 *
Major level - 2,031.30
Minor level - 2,023.48
Minor level - 2,007.82
Major level - 1,968.80
A close today above 2,039 and the S & P should try and test 2,062.50.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50 *
Minor level - 111.72
Minor level - 110.16 *
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
A close today above 110.16 and the QQQ should try and make a run to 112.50.
I would expect resistance at 112.50 and 113.28.
TLT:?
Major level - 125
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.09
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.40
Major level - 115.62
The TLT did close above 119.53 yesterday.
It closed at 119.57.
I would expect it to try and retest 121.88.
I would expect resistance at 125.
GLD:
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.72
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34
If the GLD can hold the 103.13 level, it could move up quickly.
This is a very key support level and if it does not hold, look for the GLD to move down to the 97 area.
Same scenario as yesterday essentially.
XLE:
Minor level - 75.78
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.97
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63
A close today above 66.41 and the XLE should try and make a run to 68.75.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 125, 118.75, 112.50, 106.25, 100, and 93.75.
106 should be a major support level for Apple.?
Apple had a nice reversal yesterday, closing at 114.18.? If it can hit 115.63, buying the next pullback would make sense.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: RTN, TAP, CBOE, QIHU, TSS, GE, XRS, OMI
Bearish Stocks: CMG, BWLD, FFIV, CVS, HSY, PVH, SWKS, VRX, DDS, TGT, YUM, APC, LSTR, WDC
Be sure to check earnings release dates.