November 18, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Current Positions

GOGO Long at $19.93
Premium collected - $1.25

NCR Long Jan 16 $27 Call
Net Debit - $.80

X Long at $14
Premium collected - $.89

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
Short Nov $14 Call - $.45 collected

ETE Long at $19.50
Short Nov $20 call - $.60 collected
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I will be a guest today on John Thomas's bi-weekly webinar.? I hope to see you there.

The objective of 2,062.50 was hit yesterday.? The high for the S & P 500 was 2,066.69 or about 4 points above the resistance level, before the market sold off and closed at 2,050.44.

You may recognize that 2,054.68 is the downside confirming level to 2,031.30.
And usually when they are exceeded, they can act as support or resistance.

The small nuiance here is that 2,062.50 was exceeded by 4.19 and 2,054.68 was exceeded by 4.24.?

Coincidence?? I leave that for you to decide.

But, having these price levels give you areas where you can anticipate what the markets should? do.

For example, I mentioned yesterday that I felt that 2,059 should offer some resistance.

I mentioned that because that was the midpoint of last week's weekly price, which happened to be one of most bearish price bars I have seen in a long time.

It also happens to be within a few points of the 2,062.50 resistance level.

Could you have caught this sell off intraday?
The answer to that is the VIX.

The key level I mentioned yesterday was 17.19.
The VIX came down and stopped at 16.86 or within 33 cents of that level before it reversed and headed higher.

That was at 11:00 EST, which also happened to be the high for the day on the S & P.

Today is the release of the Fed meeting notes at 2:00 EST.

This certainly will be closely watched because of an anticipated rate hike.

Personally, I doubt the Fed does anything until 2016, but I could be wrong,

But, I will not be wrong to expect excess volatility today.

Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:?

Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31 *
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50

The VIX above the 18.75 level yesterday.
To move up, it will need two closes above 20.31.? And support should be at 17.19.

S & P 500 Cash Index:?

Major level - 2,093.80
Minor level - 2,085.98
Minor level - 2,070.33 *
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,054.68 *
Minor level - 2,039.12
Major level - 2,031.30
Minor level - 2,023.48
Minor level - 2,007.82
Major level - 1,968.80

A close today under 2,054.68 and the S & P should retest 2,031.

To move up, it will need two closes above 2,070.? But, I would expect resistance at that level.

Nasd 100 (QQQ):?

Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
Minor level - 113.28 *
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.72 *
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03

The QQQ closed at 111.47, so it should try and make a run to 112.50.

Yesterday's high came within 21 cents of the objective.

TLT:?

Major level - 125
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.09
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.40
Major level - 115.62

Objective should be back to 121.88.
Expect volatility today.

GLD:

Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.72
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34

The GLD broke the 103.13 support level yesterday.

A close today under 102.34 and it should drop to 100.

Stay away form this market until it shows signs of firming up.

XLE:

Minor level - 75.78
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.97
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63

Objective should be to 68.75.

Apple:

Major levels for Apple are 125, 118.75, 112.50, 106.25, 100, and 93.75.
106 should be a major support level for Apple.?

Two closes above 114.06 and Apple should make a run to 118.75.? Look for lower levels to act as support.

Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: RTN, VMC, DHR, TAP, CBOE, QIHU, TSS, V, GE, XRS, OMI,

Bearish Stocks: CMG, BWLD, FFIV, CVS, HSY, PVH, SWKS, VRX, DDS, TGT, YUM, APC, LSTR, WDC

Be sure to check earnings release dates.