November 18, 2024
(TRUMP AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER: THE WEST LOOKS OUT OF FAVOUR)
November 18, 2024
Hello everyone
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Monday, Nov. 18
10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (November)
7:30 p.m. Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
Previous: N/A
Forecast: N/A
Tuesday Nov. 19
8:30 a.m. Canada Inflation Rate
Previous: 1.6%
Forecast: 1.9%
8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (October)
8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (October)
Earnings: Walmart, Lowe’s Companies
Wednesday Nov. 20
2.00 a.m. UK Inflation Rate
Previous: 1.7%
Forecast: 2.2%
Earnings: Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, TJX, Target
Thursday Nov. 21
8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (11/09)
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (11/16)
8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (November)
10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (October)
10 a.m. Leading Indicators (October)
11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (November)
6:30 p.m. Japan Inflation Rate
Previous: 2.5%
Forecast: 2.2%
Earnings: Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere
Friday Nov. 22
2:00 a.m. UK Retail Sales
Previous: 0.3%
Forecast: -0.3%
9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (November)
9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing (November)
9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Services (November)
10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (November)
IN BRIEF
Global inflation data takes over the economic calendar this week, with critical readings from Canada, Japan, and the UK set to influence currency movements. Market sentiment appears increasingly contrarian, with traders taking positions against the dollar’s strength despite its continued upward momentum. Nvidia reports this week, and investors will be watching keenly to see if the company can continue its stellar earnings journey.
Trump & Geopolitics
Come January 20, when Trump is inaugurated, we are likely to see a new world soon after – one that is quite unlike what many of us had envisaged.
Blinken states that China, Iran, and North Korea have backed Putin, and this shows that they are issuing a systemic challenge to the international order the US has led and policed since 1945, especially since 1991.
Blinken argues that if Trump leans on Ukraine to bow to Putin’s territorial and geopolitical aggression, the principles that have undergirded the international order under ‘Pax Americana ‘will be gravely abridged. That question is one prompted by Trump’s rhetoric and previous behaviour.
Trump’s attitude to NATO does not bode well for trans-Atlantic relations or European security. His remarks about Taiwan have raised concerns he might seek to cut a deal with China that would leave Taiwan stranded in a difficult situation.
Trump’s approach to Iran is yet to be clarified, and in relation to AUKUS, we don’t yet know how high this sits on Trump’s priorities.
The new world could be a little disconcerting, to say the least.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P500 – At a crossroads
The recent $6,017 high could count as a Wave 5 high. We will only realize that with some confidence if we see a strong break below $5,697, which would then risk a sell-off back toward $5,400 over coming weeks en route to around $5,100.
If this bull market, which has thus far run for just over two years, is to extend further (both in Price & Time), then we would ideally need to see the key support at $5,697 maintained and intact.
GOLD – Correction in progress
We are in a Wave 4 correction presently in Gold. It will probably take the form of a zigzag appearance, thereby forming an ABC pattern. The c wave may find a low around the low $2,400’s or the high $2,300’s. New highs in Gold may not be reached until next year.
BITCOIN – Uptrend in progress
Bitcoin has continued its rally since bottoming at $49,577 on August 5th.
Support: mid $80,000’s
Target: $100,000
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
Disney (DIS), General Motors (GM)
On June 21, 2024, I recommended subscribers buy LEAPS on Disney (DIS) ($105/$110 June 2025).
At the time, the stock was $101.52.
And if you didn’t do options, you could have bought the stock.
Last Friday, the stock closed at $115.08.
For those who bought the LEAPS, please check your position. There is still time left in this trade, but if you have a good profit, you can take the money off the table.
On May 15, 2024, I recommended subscribers buy LEAPS on General Motors (GM) ($50/$60 June 2025)
At the time, the stock was priced at $45.03.
And if you didn’t do options, you could have bought the stock.
Last Friday, the stock closed at $57.04.
For those that bought the LEAPS, please check your position.
QI CORNER
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Scientists have been discussing ways to make Mars habitable for humans for several decades. One process that may be a possibility is a large-scale transformation of its planetary environment to become more Earth-like – a process known as terraforming. Extensive geological evidence indicates that Mars once had a much thicker atmosphere and a warmer climate that allowed liquid water to flow across its surface. In this sense, terraforming would represent an effort to turn back the clock of planetary time to return Mars to a warmer, wetter world.
CURIOUS QUESTION CORNER
Which creature would be most likely to RULE Earth should all humans die, according to scientists?
Answer: Octopuses
World-leading experts claim the eight-limbed creatures are primed to become the dominant force on Earth should humanity die out.
In the event of a wipeout through either wars or climate change, the marine invertebrates are said to possess the ‘physical and mental attributes necessary’ to evolve into the next civilization-building species.
Professor Tim Coulson of the University of Oxford said their ‘dexterity, curiosity, ability to communicate with each other, and supreme intelligence’ means they could create complex tools to build a vast Atlantis-like civilisations underwater.
Cheers
Jacquie