November 19, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

CURRENT POSITIONS:

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
 
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70

KMI Long (1) Nov 23rd-$17.50 call @ $0.20
KMI Long (2) Nov 23rd-$17.00 put @ $0.40

MDR Long @ $9.31
......................................................................................... 

Friday I suggested you close out the QCOM debit spread and book your one day profit.

And the short $10 call on MDR expired on Friday as well, allowing you to book the profit on that as well.

Friday was the second day of a bounce in the market. The S & P 500 closed 6.07 points higher at 2,736.27.

And Friday's high of 2,746.75 took out the major 2,744.10 level by 2.65 points.

The range for the day did contract. The range Friday was only 34.59 points as compared with the daily average true range of 46.67 points. The range was only 72% of the average.

Having said that, the S & P 500 is just under the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 2,749.58. And the high Friday was 2,746.75, or about three points under it.

To move higher, the S & P 500 will have to clear this level. Two closes above it would be preferable to consider this pullback over.

The other major level the market will need to clear is the major 2,744.10 level. And like the midband, I would prefer to see two closes above it.

If the market can get above the 2,744.10 level, it could signal a run back to the highs.

I do expect a retest of the 2,890.06 level. The question is when.

The daily bar did close at 70% of the range of Friday's daily bar. So, this puts the odds of violating the high before the low squarely at 70%.

The support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,727 to 2,729 area.

For the week, the S & P 500 did manage to close above the midpoint of the weekly bar. It actually ended up closing at 62% of the bar. Not very convincing, but it did close above the midpoint.

The close of 2,736 should be a level to watch this week.

The range for the week was 105.24 points and the weekly average true range is 78.4. So, the range for the week actually exceeded the average by 35%.

The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in a large range. It is from 2,723 to 2,755.

The 60 minute chart for the S & P 500 remains bearish. And the price is trading under the midband which is 2,780.35. I consider this resistance until it is violated.

This week should be a rather slow week with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday here in the States. The markets are closed on Thursday for the holiday and Friday is an early closure at 1:00 EST.

Earnings do continue this week, but there are only three days of companies reporting with the market closures.

With the market closure Thursday and the early closing on Friday, the daily update will only be published until Wednesday this week.

Continue to monitor the levels as I mentioned.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50

The VIX closed at 18.22. It is back under the major 18.75 level.

Watch the 20.31 level today. It should be resistance.

And on the downside, watch the 17.97 level. Two closes under this minor level and I would expect a drop to 15.63.

The 30 minute chart is firmly in a downtrend and the 60 minute chart is close to crossing into a downtrend. If this can happen, look for the VIX to head lower.

SPX:

Minor level: 2,805.20
Major level: 2,793.00
Minor level: 2,780.78
Minor level: 2,756.33
Major level: 2,744.10 <
Minor level: 2,731.90
Minor level: 2,707.50 **
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,683.10
Minor level: 2,658.70
Major level: 2,646.50

The S & P 500 did hit the major 2,744.10 level. As I mentioned above, it would be bullish for the market if it could close above the 2,744.10 level for two days.

On the downside, the key level to watch is 2,731.90. Two closes under this level would suggest a drop to 2,695.

Minor support should still be at 2,700.20. On the upside, watch for resistance at the 2,749 level.

QQQ:

Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19 **
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <

The QQQ closed at 167.50. Like the S & P 500, the QQQ is trading just under the midband on its daily chart. That level is 169.11.

This level remains as resistance until it is violated.

I do expect resistance at 168.75 and at 175.

Minor support is at 165.63.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75

The IWM closed at 151.94. With a close above 151.56, this now implies that if the IWM can close above it today, it should test 156.
150 is major support.

The IWM is oversold, so a bounce here should be expected. The question is how can it bounce?

A move up to 159 could imply the downtrend is over.

TLT:

Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45 **
Major level: 114.06 Hit!
Minor level: 113.67
Minor level: 112.89
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 112.11
Minor level: 111.33
Major level: 110.94

The TLT continued its bounce and closed at 114.70. A close today above 114.45 would imply that the TLT should move up to 115.63.

The TLT would have to move up to the 117 area for me to consider the downtrend is over.

A break above 114.84 and I expect the TLT to move higher. Minor support is at 113.67.

Both the 30 and 60 minute charts are bullish which also implies the TLT should head higher.

GLD:

Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85 **
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38

The GLD closed at 115.62. The GLD is just under the midband on its 30 minute chart. The midband is 115.64 which is one penny above the major 115.63 level.

The GLD will need to clear this level to head higher. If it can, it would then become support.

115.23 is minor resistance. 116.41 is minor resistance.

XLE:

Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50

The XLE closed at 67.18. A close today above 66.41 would imply a move up to 68.75.

66.41 is minor support. And 68.75 is resistance.

Technical resistance is at 67.53.

FXY:

Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
Minor level: 84.58 **
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 84.18
Minor level: 83.79
Major level: 83.59

The FXY closed at 84.73. A close today above 84.58 and the FXY should test 85.16.

The FXY would have to move up to the 86 area for me to be convinced that this downtrend is over. Still a bounce in a bear market.

84.57 is minor support. And resistance is at 84.96.

AAPL:

Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 198.44 **
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75

Apple continues to bounce off the midband on its daily chart. That level is 187.74.

Friday, Apple closed at 193.53. Look for support at 190.63.

At this point, I do expect resistance at 200.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: CME, MCD, AAP, CLX, VMW, UHS, VRSK, DATA, HSY, CTSX, GPC, ATO, XLNX, ICE, OMC, GOOS, ROL, HLF, FL, THS, TWTR

Bearish Stocks: GS, NVDA, FB, STMP, FB, OLED, SWKS, CELG, DVA, EBIX, KORS, SLB, DVN, HAL

Be sure to check earnings release dates.