November 23, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Current Positions

GOGO Long at $19.93
Premium collected - $1.25

NCR Long Jan 16 $27 Call
Net Debit - $.80

X Long at $14
Premium collected - $.89

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium collected - $.75
Short Nov $14 Call - $.45 collected

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There are a couple of house cleaning topics I need to address before I begin the update.

The short $14 call on ASNA expired Friday.? At this point, you should have collected $.75 per share in premium.

ASNA sold off with the retail sector reporting less than stellar results.? On a bounce, I will be looking to sell more calls and add put protection, depending upon how high it bounces.

The second position that expired Friday was ETE, which I suggested you close out before the close.? You should have gotten a slightly better fill than the price I quoted in the alert.

The reason I suggested closing the trade out was because the XLE could not hold the 67.97 level, which turned out to be the correct strategy.

ETE sold off right after the alert and moved down to around $19.

This Thursday is Thanksgiving here in the States and the markets will be closed.? Friday will have an early close at 1:00 EST.???

I do want to wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving! And thank you for being a member.

Finally, this Wednesday is our bi-monthly webinar at 12:00 EST.? I know this is traditionally the busiest travel day of the year.? If you are traveling, you can always watch the replay in the members area.

And finally, if you have a suggestion for me to cover on the webinar, please fee free to share it with me at davismdt@gmail.com.

Last week almost reversed the entire sell off from the prior week.

The VIX ended up closing down almost 23% for the week.

The S & P 500 did take out the 2,093.80 level, and closed just under it on Friday.

The NASD market remains the strongest of the three major markets.? The QQQ closed up over 4% for the week and the NASD Composite was up 3.59%.

Here are the key levels for the markets.
?
VIX:?

Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50

The VIX has confirmed a move back down to the 12.50 level.

Resistance should be at 17.19 and 18.75.
Watch the 14.06 as level as well, because it has acted as strong support as well as the 12.50 level.

S & P 500 Cash Index:?

Minor level - 2,101.62
Major level - 2,093.80
Minor level - 2,085.98
Minor level - 2,070.33 *
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,054.68
Minor level - 2,039.12
Major level - 2,031.30

2,093.80 objective was hit on Friday.

Look for support at 2,085 and 2,070.

There should be minor resistance at 2,109.40.

Nasd 100 (QQQ):?

Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
Minor level - 113.28 *
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.72
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38

The objective should be to 115.63.

113.29 and 112.50 should act as support.
For the QQQ to move up, it will need two closes above 116.41.

TLT:?

Major level - 125
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.09
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.40
Major level - 115.62

Objective should still be back to 121.88, but it would have to close above 121.09.

If it cannot, look for a move back to 118.75.

GLD:

Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
Minor level - 102.34
Major level - 96.88

The GLD continues to try and hold the 103.13 support level.

Two closes under 102.34 and it should drop to 100.

On the upside, it would need two closes above 103.91 to move up to 106.

XLE:

Minor level - 75.78
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.97 *
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63

A retest of 65.63 is the most likely scenario for the XLE.? It is close to being back in oversold territory.

Apple:

Major levels for Apple are 125, 118.75, 112.50, 106.25, 100, and 93.75.
106 should be a major support level for Apple.?

Apple would need two closes above 120.34 to move up to 125.

There is a down gap at 120.05.? Watch how Apple trades around that level.

Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, COST, DIS, RTN, HD, DHR, DY, CBOE, JPM, AFL, BSFT, GE, XRS, OMI, PSX, ADBE, TSO

Bearish Stocks: CMG, ANTM, PII, WYNN, JWN, TGT, AKAM, CF, QCOM, DKS, BKE, APC, GNC, COG

Be sure to check earnings release dates.