November 23, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
MDT AlertWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected? $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected? $.70
FCX Long $12.45
FCX Short Nov 25th - $14 Call ?($.30)
Total Premium Collected $.54
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $.48
CERN Long Jan $50 Call - $1.65
CERN Short Jan $55 Call ? ($.40)
FEYE Long at $13.65
FEYE Short Nov 25th - $14 Call ? ($.28)
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With the Thanksgiving Holiday here in the States tomorrow, the markets will be closed.? And Friday will be a shortened session, with the markets closing at 1:00 EST.? Due to holiday travel, there will be no daily update on Friday.
I do want to wish you and your family a very happy and healthy holiday!
Now onto the markets.
The past few days I have harped on the idea of NOT attempting to short the markets around the all time high.? This is because when a high is taken out, there tends to be quick and fast upmoves.
Primarily because those that have shorted are now trapped and need to cover their positions. It is not necessarily new buying, just short covering by those traders that felt the markets could not go higher.
I also mentioned that I would not consider a short until the market hit the next confirming level after 2,187.50. That price level is 2,203.12.
And yesterday the S & P 500 hit a high of 2,204.80 and closed at 2,202.94.? This is just 18 cents under the level I mentioned.
And yesterday was a narrow range doji bar, which can mean indecision. So, this puts us on alert to a possible pullback.
At this point, we need two closes above 2,203.12 to validate a move up to 2,250. With yesterday closing under that level, we still need those two closes.
The other situation that makes the market ripe for a pullback is the fact that the VIX closed at 12.41 yesterday.? We had a target down to 12.50 and it certainly complied with that.
However, we also know that 12.50 is a major support line for the VIX.
And with the VIX in downtrend formations on both its daily and 60 minute chart, I? believe that a rally in the VIX will be short lived. In other words, if you do take a shot on shorting the markets around 2,203, pull profits off quickly.
I could be wrong and a potential pullback could be steeper than I suspect, but that is what I see at the moment.
Perhaps today?s release of the FOMC minutes will be the catalyst that compels people to take profits. The TLT has certainly reacted as if a rate hike is definite for next month.
Watch the 2,203.12 level today and the 12.50 level for the VIX.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89
Major level - 12.50
Minor level ? 12.11
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
The VIX will need two closes under 12.11 to move to 10.94.? To move up to 14.06, the VIX will need two closes above 12.89.
11.72 should offer strong support.
$SPX:
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38
Minor level - 2,203.12 *
Major level - 2,187.50 *
Minor level - 2,171.88 *
Minor level - 2,140.62
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
The S & P 500 is right at the 2,203.12 level.? If the S & P 500 can close above that level for two days, the objective becomes 2,250.
2.195 should be minor support and 2,210 could offer resistance.
QQQ:?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 *
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
The QQQ closed at 118.90. just 15 cents above the 118.75 objective.
119.53 could offer resistance. And 118.36 could offer minor support.
TLT:?
Major level - 131.25
Minor level ? 130.46
Minor level ? 128.91
Major level ? 128.13
Major level ? 125.00
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66 *
Major level ? 121.88 *
Major level ? 118.75
The TLT is oversold on the daily chart and a bounce should be expected. Having said that, I would expect a rally to fail.? Most likely at the 125 level.? Same as yesterday.
120.31 should offer support and a long if this level holds would be warranted.
GLD: ?
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75
Minor level ? 117.97
Minor level -? 116.41
Major level ? 115.63 *
Minor level ? 114.85
Minor le
vel ? 113.28
Major level ? 112.50
The GLD continues to try and hold the 115.63 level.? It will need two closes under 114.85 to move down to 112.50.
115.82 should offer resistance.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66 *
Major level - 71.88 *
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The XLE did close above 72.66,so the objective should be to 75.
71.88 should now be support.? Minor support at 72.27.
FXY:
Minor level: 89.45
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11 *
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
The FXY did close under 87.11 yesterday. Objective should be down to 85.94.
86.52 could offer minor support. 87.11 should be resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple hit a high of 112.42 yesterday, just 8 cents under the 112.50 level.?
The key at the moment is if Apple can get through 112.81.? If it can, it should move higher. If not, expect a pullback.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GS, HUM, FDX, FFIV, CVX, NVDA, DE, VMW, KLAC, KSS
Bearish Stocks:? AGN, CVS, TEVA, FSLR, CUBE, CRAY, NVO
Be sure to check earnings release dates