November 25, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70

RRC Long at $9.20

RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45

FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80

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The FDX position expired on Friday. Unfortunately, we were early on the entry. After FDX bottomed at 151.92 on Thursday, it rallied back about $5 in two days.

This is why you should never overtrade these short term positions. And follow strict money management.

This week is a short trading week due to the Thanksgiving Holiday here in the United States. The markets will be closed on Thursday because of the Holiday. And Friday is a shortened trading day with a close at 1:00 EST.

Because of the Holiday, I will not be writing a daily update on Thursday and Friday.

Please have a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the long weekened.

The S & P 500 ended up closing 6.78 points higher of Friday. The day closed out at 3,110.22.

There were a couple of pressure points we were looking for on Friday that could affect the days trading.

Thursday's close of 3,103.44 and the midpoint, which was 3,102.33 were two of them.

The final price area was the 3,109, which was the midpoint of the weekly bar through Thursday.

As it turned out, the low for the day was 3,099.26, which was just under the support levels from Thursday.

And after finding support, the S & P managed to rally back to close at 3,110.22, or about a point above the weekly midpoint.

The daily bar ended up closing at 81% of the range of the bar. This suggests that the odds of violating the high before the low is about 4 to 1. Friday's high was 3,112.87, so watch this level.

Once again, the market did contract. The intra day range was only 13.61 points. This was about 67% of the daily average true range, which is 20.43.

All this quiet trading makes me concerned that we will see profit-taking. The question is when?

The weekly price bar closed 10.24 points lower. And it closed below the open.

The weekly range was only 36.23 points. This was about one half the weekly average true range, which is 67.34 points.

The support area to watch from last week's weekly price bar is around 3,109. This is also within a point of the close, which should be a key level this week
as well.

Pre open, the S & P is trading about 6 points higher. The open projects to about 3 points above Friday's high of 3,112,87. Watch for support at that level on a pullback.

The weekly bar was a doji, which does mean indecision. It can also be a pause before the market continues. This is why breaking above Friday's high should be a key event.

Companies reporting earnings are slowing down this week. Especially with the short week.

PANW reports this afternoon after the close. And CBRL reports before the open on Tuesday.

DE reports after the close on the Wednesday.

Pre open, the S & P is trading about 3 points higher.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38

The VIX closed out at 12.43 on Friday. I have been writing about the fact that I expect resistance at 13.28 on the VIX. Resistance that is until the VIX can close above it.

And once again, the VIX found resistance at the 13.28 level. Friday's high was 13.25 before the VIX sold off.

With a close back under 12.50, this level should now be resistance.

11.72 is a support level on the downside. If the VIX breaks under under it, I would expect a test of 9.38.

The 13 area should be technical resistance.

SPX:

Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30

The S & P closed at 3,110.29. With a close under 3,125, look for resistance at that level. And for the S & P to move higher, it would need to clear the major 3,125 level.

The minor 3,105 level should offer support.

Technical support is around 3,106.

QQQ:

Minor level: 203.91
Major level: 203.13 HIT
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53
Major level: 193.75

The QQQ closed at 201.83. I do expect another run up to 203.13. And the QQQ would need to close above 202.35 to move higher.

The next minor level on the upside is 203.91. And on the downside, it is 202.35. Friday's high went to 202.32 or 3 cents under the minor 202.35.

Technical support should be around the 201 area. If the QQQ can open above this level, look for support at this price.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75

The IWM closed at 158.22. The target for the IWM should still be to the 162.50. Still lagging the SPX and the QQQ.

156.25 should be support.

With a close above 157.81, it should be support. Technical support is around 158 as well.

TLT:

Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25

The TLT closed at 139.90. I would consider the 140.63 level to be hit.

The next minor level is 141.41. Two closes above this level and the TLT should continue higher. And at this point, if the TLT can close under 139.85 today, it should drop to 137.50.

And the 139 to 140 area should still offer technical support. If the TLT can hold this level, look for a push higher.

GLD:

Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 **
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38

The GLD closed at 137.74. Watch to see if the GLD breaks under 137.50.

The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.

Short term, there is technical resistance at 139. And technical support is around 136.

XLE:

Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69

The XLE closed at 59.83. The XLE took out the 59.38 level as expected. This level should offer support.

At this point, if the XLE has two closes above 60.16, it should move up to 62.50.

58.60 should now be support. And the 59 area should offer technical support.

AAPL:

Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 HIT!
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50

Apple closed at 261.78. Apple will need two closes under 261.72 to drop to 250. And at this point, it is holding just above it.

Watch for a retest of the major 265.63 level. It will need to get back above this elvel to move higher. If it fails, there could be a strong pullback.

Technical support should be in the 260 area.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: ROP, HUM, AVGO, A DBE, MA, NOW, PAYC, ANSS, LULU, FB, RH, VRTX, BABA, JAZZ, JPM, TGT, CTXS, DGX, ABC

Bearish Stocks: ULTA, AAP, HUBS, LOPE, FANG, BLUE, THS, ETSY, NUS