November 26, 2013 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
DXJ????? Long???????????????????? 50 ? ? ?????? 49 ?????????????? 53
APPL??? Long?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ??? 520.70?????? 518 ???????????? 545
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Today's Working Orders...
Sell 30 Yr Bond Futures (USZ) @ 132.27?
BUY TBT @ 75.80
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Holiday schedule...
We're in office today through?tomorrow in the A.M. 11/27/13
The next research will be sent Monday 12/2/13.
Stocks...
COF...Capital One is just breaking out to the upside. Maintaining above 70 keeps this firm.
NTRS...Northern Trust is a favorite. This is a buy on $1 dips.
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Bonds...
30 yr. Bonds...we got the test of 132.18 last night. We want to keep selling these rallies at resistance to see what we get. 133.00+- a couple is the lowest risk spot.
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FX...
AUD/USD...91.19 is today's ORL #. Given the current oversold condition on the short term time frames, I view this as a possible Bear Trap.
EUR/AUD...148.45 is today's ORH#. EUR/AUD is already well on it's way to put in an ORH month. Holding above this level will give way to a test of the August high of 150.34.
145.80 is the low risk buy zone. This is the spot to buy the spread before you sell with a 30 point stop.
USD/JPY...100.50 ( 99.50 Futures) is as good a spot as any to sell some Yen.
AUD/JPY...after hitting resistance @ 93.50 last night, AUD/JPY is attempting an ORL day with a close below 92.72.
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Commodities...
OIL...use 94.00 as your pivot for short term market tone.
98.85 is point & figure resistance. The resting buy stops are over 95.60.
Electing those stops could lead to a test of resistance @ the 200 day 96.60. This is an exit zone for those of you who are short term Bulls.
Bears, this is the level to give it a go and sell with a 30 cent stop.
Gold...needs over 1260 to rally, and under 1244 to break down again.
General Comments orValuable Insight
The 30 yr. Bonds are still telegraphing the short term wiggles in the currencies and metals.
When the Bonds rally the dollar gets sold off, and the metals catch a bid from very a oversold condition.
That is the "short-term' knee jerk reaction.
Sell before you Buy or Buy before you Sell....
A simple enough concept.
When I write about a specific level short term traders should be attempting trades from that side of the market @ the given level.
I.E. Today's 30 yr. Bond level. This is a spot to sell before you buy with a 6-7 tick tolerance. A general rule of thumb is to take at least half off if
you get 25-30 ticks profit (almost a full point).
The idea here is to trade from the right side of the market at the correct level for the the highest risk/reward profile.
See what the market gives you..
Pay for your stop on the expected price rejection the first time into the zone...take some off
This gives you time and a free look on the house's money to see if the trade can turn into something that has legs. ( Something Bigger and Longer)
Often longer term tgt's will take more time and price action (wiggle) to generate expected levels.
Sometimes you just don't know how far when you initiate a trade, you only know the level is good.
This methodology will keep you in chips. You only have to be right 60% of the time.
If you've been following for a while you know my levels and batting average are higher.
Short Term View...
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Less is more this time of year. Be patient, if you miss something it's much better than taking it in the shorts!
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s. The Equity Indices seem stretched at these levels.
Go with the flow. Use the 9/30/13 ( September 30th) closes as your macro pivots. Trade the opening ranges and early time frames.
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.