While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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As a reminder, this is a short trading week due to the Thanksgiving Holiday here in the United States. The markets will be closed on Thursday because of the Holiday. And Friday is a shortened trading day with a close at 1:00 EST.
Because of the Holiday, I will not be writing a daily update on Thursday and Friday.
Please have a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the long weekend.
The S & P 500 ended up taking out the 3,125 objective. The market closed out at 3,133.64.
The day ended closing 23.35 points higher.
The intraday range ended up at 16.39 points, which is still below the daily average true range. The average true range is now 20.65 points. But this is the first day in a week that the average actually ticked up.
With a break above 3,125, the next level to watch will be the 3,164.08 level.
After taking out a major level, the next minor level can often offer resistance.
And with the sentiment indicators all overbought and the VIX breaking under the 12.50 level, the indication is that profit taking should set in.
The question is when?
It is possible that the minor 3,164 level does not offer any resistance and the S & P heads up to the next major level, which is 3,281.
This could be a realistic scenario especially considering that the upper band on the daily chart for the S & P is 3,255.
As you know, the bands become price objectives.
With the daily price bar closing at 99% of the daily price bar, so the odds are almost 100% that the high will be violated before the low.
Pre open, the S & P is relatively flat, but the high for the day was only 0.19 cents above the close. So, a small push and the high should be taken out.
The support area from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,125 area, which is also the major support level.
Support from last week's price bar is around 3,113. And below that price is the 3,109 area.
PANW reported last night and is trading about $20 lower. And CBRL is trading about $6 lower after reporting.
DE reports after the close on the Wednesday.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 11.87 yesterday. The VIX got as low as 11.73 or to within a penny of the minor 11.72 level before closing above that level.
The 11.72 level is the key at the moment. Two closes under this level and the VIX should test 9.38.
But, if this level can hold support and rally, we may see that profit-taking I mentioned above.
The 13.28 level should still be resistance. And the 12.50 area as well.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08 **
Major level: 3,125.00 < Hit
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,133.64. The S & P has now cleared and closed above the major 3,125 level. This would suggest that it should now be support.
The minor 3,115 level should offer support. And technical support is around 3,115 as well.
If the S & P can clear the minor 3,134.76 level, it should head higher.
QQQ:
Major level: 206.26
Minor level: 205.48
Minor level: 203.91 **
Major level: 203.13 HIT
Minor level: 202.35
Minor level: 200.78
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
The QQQ closed at 204.22. The QQQ took out 203.13.
And with a close above 203.91 today, the QQQ should test 206.26.
The next minor level on the upside is 203.91. And on the downside, it is 202.35. Friday's high went to 202.32 or 3 cents under the minor 202.35.
Technical support should be around the 202 area. If the QQQ can open above this level, look for support at this price.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 161.58. The target for the IWM should still be to the 162.50. And with the strong move yesterday, the IWM is within 70 cents of the 162.50 objective.
160.94 should be support.
Technical support is around 159.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 140.31. I would consider the 140.63 level to be hit. And yesterday, the TLT came within 10 cents of it.
The next minor level is 141.41. Two closes above this level and the TLT should continue higher. And at this point, if the TLT can close under 139.85 today, it should drop to 137.50.
And the 139 to 140 area should still offer technical support.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 **
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 137.08. Watch the 137.50 level. If the GLD can clear it, then it should head higher.
The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
Short term, there is technical resistance at 138. And technical support is around 136.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.89. The XLE took out the 59.38 level as expected. This level should offer support. And yesterday's low was 59.53.
At this point, if the XLE has two closes above 60.16, it should move up to 62.50.
58.60 should now be support. And the 59 area should offer technical support.
The XLE is close to crossing into an uptrend on the daily chart.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54
Major level: 265.63 HIT!
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Apple closed at 266.37. Apple will need two closes above 269.54 to move higher.
271.45 is the upper band on the daily chart. Watch this level on the upside as well.
Technical support should be in the 264 area.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ROP, HUM, AVGO, A DBE, MA, NOW, PAYC, ANSS, LULU, FB, RH, VRTX, BABA, JAZZ, JPM, TGT, CTXS, DGX, ABC
Bearish Stocks: ULTA, AAP, HUBS, LOPE, FANG, BLUE, THS, ETSY, NUS
