October 1, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
Short 1 EURO ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 128.76 ??????? 122..00
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Today's Working Orders
No working orders
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Stocks...
IWM...put in an ORL month. Russell continues to be the dog with fleas.
107.44 is the next set of macro sell stops. If these get elected look for another
8% down.
SPU's...sustained price action and a close under 1954 can lead to an 80 point sell off in the Index.
The Equity Indices either hold in here or they don't.
NASD 100...is still being bought against other indices. The pattern shows a double bottom @ 3998 where the current pattern sell stops are. Closes over 4065 is needed for higher.
X...I wrote about the negative pattern in U.S. Steel forming after it gaped up almost 10%. Now it's below the original lift off level of 40.30. Sustained price action lower on the qtr. can see this losing another 10%.
It's been a good bellwether for the broader market.
Bonds ...
Bunds... 149.73-77 is the next daily & weekly resistance level. The eventual target for the Bund is a retest close to 151.00.
FX...
EURO...sustained price action over 126.50 is needed for a short covering rally.
I took some profits early yesterday. I still don't believe this will rally much going into the ECB meeting. I'm keeping a small core short hoping for a big rally to resell.
Whether or not that happens is another matter, which is why I'm going to remain with a small core short, since the Euro puked after the last meeting with no rally.
AUD/USD...macro sell stops are @ 86.58, this years low made in January. Aussie tested the level last night. Only a close over 87.50 will lead to short covering.
Commodities...
OIL... 92.45-65 would be a place to look for the Oil to stall on a rally.
New weakness under 90 is needed for another big down move.
The weekly inventory #'s come out @ 9:30 CDT.
Natgas...natty shows 3.94-97 support. This is the low risk buy zone with a tight stop. This will also act as the closing downside pivot. 4.25-9 is weekly resistance.
GOLD...put in an ORL Qtr along with Silver (Not price positive). Macro sell stops are @ 1179-81. If elected, look for 1140 and then 1080.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
If the Equity Indices don't sustain a rally after the first 30 minutes of trading today,
they can all roll over and die.
Today's ADP release @ 7:15 CDT will get the ball rolling.
The greenback is on a major mission to go higher. It remains over bought with different currencies leading on different days.
I.E.: yesterday it was the Euro, last night it was Aussie. This will be the nature of the trade going forward.
Trade the dollar one level at a time. Right now it's the currency du jour and the place most investors worldwide want to hide (park their money).
This has the added effect of keeping a bid tone to our treasuries vs other world bond markets.
Trade your time frames and the major technical levels that have been written. These have not changed over the past several days.
Use yesterdays closes for general market tone in whatever instrument you are trading.
Good above /negative below.?
S&P 500
GOLD
For Medium Term Outlook click here.
For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.