October 10, 2025

 

(THE PUBLIC GOLD RUSH)

 

October 10, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

This is when I start to become wary.

Just this last week, I saw on the television media channels, news items about the vast numbers of Australians investing in ETFs.  Additionally, another item showed people lining up outside Bullion companies to buy their nuggets of gold. 

When mass public participation becomes evident, it is usually not long until we see some sort of correction/retracement.

It is not a 100% certainty that we will get a correction before year end; nevertheless, I think we should be prepared for the possibility.  And it can happen very suddenly.   In 1983, the gold price fell 14 per cent overnight.  When I see people queueing for gold, alarm bells are going off in my head.

 

 

It would be reasonable to expect some profit-taking as the $4000 milestone is hit, so I would not be surprised to see a pull-back from current levels before a resumption higher again.

To rally further, gold needs to move higher above $3,994 to trigger the belief in the bullish view.  Then the nearest target is $4,133.

On the other hand, if gold fails to move up and moves lower below $3,944, the bullish view will be rejected.

Australia is no stranger to a gold rush.  Many prospectors flocked to the Victorian goldfields in the 1850s.  Today, investors are not likely to ditch the office job and take a backpack filled with pickaxes and pans to locate gold. Instead, they are investing in gold equities, ETFs, and direct ownership of the precious metal, which has certainly gathered pace recently.

The metal is also now forecast by the Federal Government to top liquefied natural gas (LNG) as Australia’s most valuable export over the financial year ending June 30, 2026.  Its total export value is tipped to reach $60 billion, with iron ore still comfortably ahead on a forecast export value of $113 billion.

A bullish gold price would be beneficial to the local economy, bringing more taxes, royalties, dividends, and wealth for Australians.

According to Emmanuel Datt, the founder and portfolio manager of the Datt Small Companies Fund Capital, the gold rush will encourage more exploration, mergers, acquisitions, and mine development across Australia.

If the price for the metal holds around $US4,000 over the next 12 months, UBS Australia believes gold equities still have more upside.  The investment bank notes that future Fed Reserve rate cuts, continued dollar weakness, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty around the US government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have all contributed to fuelling this gold rally.  With central banks and retail investors buying at a record pace, the gold frenzy is likely to continue.

Goldman Sachs is calling for gold to reach as high as $US4,900 by December 2026.

Despite the bullish views, always be wary of corrections.

Bitcoin & Ethereum

We have seen a correction in Bitcoin and Ethereum; I forewarned you of some short-term volatility in these coins, however, I believe we should rally before year end, provided that significant levels hold.

A move above 123,762 would suggest and build confidence for the view that BTC is rising within an Elliott Wave iii at that time.  If that bullish action takes place, the nearest target would be around the 131, 300 area.

Hedge Funds

Despite the record levels in the markets, hedge funds are still exhibiting a level of caution.

JP Morgan strategists suggest that if the market continues its run-up, then these very cautious hedge funds may be forced to capitulate and take out long positions in ‘SPY’ or related futures to cover their cautious positioning.

They may rather chase the market here, adding more fuel to an equities rally, than report underperformance to their investors at year-end.

Then we could basically have a “blow-off” top that would start to take place.

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie