October 20, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Premium collected - $1.25
NCR Long Jan 16 $27 Call
Net Debit - $.90
X Long at $14
Premium collected - $.54
Short Nov 6th-$14 Call - $.35
ASNA Long at $14.20
Premium collected - $.30
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The markets all closed slightly to the upside yesterday, while the VIX, of course continued down.
As I mentioned yesterday, the key now is if the S & P 500 and the DOW can reclaim their 253 day average, which you know as the midband on the extreme bollinger band settings.
The S & P 500 is within 20 points of the midband, which is 2,053.86.
Earnings are starting to heat up and perhaps that will be the catalyst the market needs to propel this move higher.
The fact that I am hearing a lot of people say we are already in a bear market, makes me believe the opposite is true.
The markets tend to fool most of the people most of the time.
It is too early in the month to consider the monthly price bars for the indexes, however if the month ended today, they would all have bullish engulfment's on that timeframe.
Having said that, it would mean a retest of the upper bands would be the most likely scenario.
As the markets trade into the future, I will continue to highlight th key areas on multiple timeframes.
IBM reported last night and is down about 5% before the open.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported a miss and is down over 7%.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
Stocks...
?
VIX:?
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.18 *
Minor level - 14.06
Major level - 12.50
The VIX closed yesterday at 14.98.
The objective for the VIX remains at 12.50.
14.06 could provide some support.
Resistance should be around 17.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,054.68
Minor level - 2,039.12 *
Major level - 2,031.30
Minor level - 2,023.35 *
Minor level - 2,007.82
Major level - 2,000.00
After hitting the 2,031.30 objective, the S & P has paused trying to determine the next move.
Two closes above 2,039.12 and the objective becomes 2,062.50.
Two closes under 2,031.30 and the objective to the downside is 2,000.
Look for support at 2,031 and 2,023.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
The NASD seems to be taking the lead again.
It is above the minor 108.60 level and only 50 cents from the 109.38 objective.
I would expect some resistance at 110.16 area.
Support should be at 107.
TLT:?
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125
Minor level - 124.22 *
Minor level - 122.66 *
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.09
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75
It would have to close above 125.78 to move higher.
A retest of 121.88 would not be out of the question.
GLD:
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.72 *
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Two closes under 111.72 and the objective to the downside becomes 109.
The GLD is still above the 111.72 level.
If would have to reverse back up and close above 112.50 for further upside.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 72.66 *
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 69.53 *
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.97 *
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The XLE closed at 67.86 yesterday, just under the 67.97 level.
A close today under that level and it should move
to 65.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75 and 87.50.
100 should be a major support level for Apple.?
Apple continues to trade between the 106 and 112 levels.
Apple remains in a downtrend on the daily chart and an uptrend on the 60 minute chart.
The upside price level is 107.81 and the downside level is 110.94.
With a close yesterday at 111.73, a retest of 112.50 should be the likely scenario.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks:? PCLN, GOOGL, AMZN, EXPE, NKE, HD, CLX, TSO, MCD, DPS, CRM, VRSN, JOE, DF, ADBE
Bearish Stocks: EXP, FOSL, LSTR, KSS, CAB, DKS, HAE, CFX, ESPR, PCRX, CUDA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.