October 28, 2024
(TIME TO STEEL YOURSELF FOR A NEWSY WEEK JUST BEFORE THE ELECTION)
October 28, 2024
Hello everyone
WEEK AHEAD CALENDAR
Monday, Oct. 28
10:00 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (October)
10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index (October)
7:30 p.m. Japan Unemployment Rate
Previous: 2.5%
Forecast: 2.5%
Earnings: Ford Motor, On Semiconductor
Tuesday, Oct. 29
8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (September)
9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (August)
9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller comp. 20 HPI (August)
10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (October)
10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (September)
8:30 p.m. Australia Inflation Rate
Previous: 3.8%
Forecast: 2.9%
Earnings: Visa, Chipotle Mexican Grill, First Solar, Caesars Entertainment, Advanced Micro Devices, McDonalds, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Group, PayPal, D.R. Horton, Alphabet.
Wednesday, Oct 30
8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (October)
8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price first preliminary (Q3)
8:30 a.m. GDP first preliminary (Q3)
10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (September)
10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales
Earnings: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Starbucks, Kraft Heinz, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, GE Healthcare Technologies, Clorox, Bookings Holdings.
Thursday, Oct. 31
8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (10/19)
8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q3)
8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/26)
8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (September)
8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (September)
8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (September)
8:30 a.m. Personal Income (September)
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (October)
Earnings: Apple, Amazon.com, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Uber Technologies, The Estee Lauder Companies, Mastercard, Generac.
Friday, Nov. 1
8:30 a.m. Jobs Report (October)
Previous: 254k
Forecast: 140k
9:45 a.m. S&P PMI Manufacturing final (October)
10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (September)
10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (October0
Earnings: Exxon Mobil
It’s a data heavy week. Big Tech reports earnings, and expectations are high, but many analysts are still beating the table on these tech stocks, particularly Meta (META), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) believing they have further room to run.
The employment report on Friday takes on additional significance ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Market participants will also closely monitor Q3 GDP estimates and PCE inflation figures throughout the week. These high impact releases could reshape market sentiment heading into the US election. In fact, any deviation from the recent streak of robust economic data could potentially lead to significant moves in the US dollar.
‘Toy’ Drones Could Be A ‘Real’ Tool for Terrorists
Britain’s streets could be transformed into chaos if Extremists use “toy drones”. This is the warning from the Government’s counter terrorism management team.
Current rules enforced by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) require people operating drones weighing more than 250g to be registered and pass a theory test. However, lighter devices are widely available and are not subject to the same rules.
The world’s biggest drone company DJI sells multiple models advertised as weighing 249g.
In the UK there is regulation affecting the use of drones and it includes some provision for licensing users, but the regulation does not apply to ‘toy’ drones.
The Gold Boom
We all know that gold’s value is driven by interest rates, inflation and geopolitical fears; it is the insurance of choice for investors seeking security. When interest rates fall and returns on some assets slide with them, gold can be a safe bet. When inflation erodes a currency’s purchasing power, the price of gold rises like everything else. Furthermore, it is also a haven commodity for investors, who are concerned about war and global tensions.
This boom seems a little different, particularly the drivers of the gold price.
Central banks of emerging nations have been the big buyers of the past couple of years. Many of these nations are hostile to the United States and see hoarding more gold as financial protection. Others just think that the days when the dollar was the dominant means of global exchange is waning.
That’s a big wake up call for the West. Mohamed El-Erian believes that we could be witnessing a fragmentation of the international financial system based on the dollar. And that would mean eroding US power.
Central bank gold buying hit a record high in the first three months of 2024, according to the World Gold Council. India, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Russia, Iraq, and Jordan were among the biggest purchasers. China has increased its buying too.
It appears many countries are calling time on America’s “weaponisation” of the dollar. Collectively, these countries may conclude that they might be better off with an alternative currency to use for international trade. And holding more gold could be a foundation for a new payments system.
Russian president Vladmir Putin has long envisioned the creation of a gold-backed alternative to the dollar, and last week he had a chance to push his agenda. At a three-day economic summit, which included the latest gathering of the BRICS group of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – Putin shared his vision for a BRICS currency. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Pakistan, Thailand, Venezuela, Senegal and Saudi Arabia are seen as potential members.
At the Summit, Putin showed a symbolic banknote, “The Unit” featuring the flags of BRICS countries.
Even if the BRICS members and their partners never find a way to circumvent the dollar, no one stocking up on gold appears to be losing money at this time.
MARKET UPDATE
S&P 500
Uptrend intact. Could be a volatile week with Big Tech earnings out and the Jobs Report.
Next Target: ~$5,900
Support: ~$5750/$5720
GOLD
Rally set to continue after time correction.
Next Targets: $2765/$2850
BITCOIN
Bullish structure still intact.
Next Targets: $72,560/$75,240/$81,340
QI CORNER
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Cheers
Jacquie