October 4, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95

ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75

DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70

SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65

OI Long Feb $19 call @ $1.70
OI Short Feb $22 call @ $0.55
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After topping out at 2,939.86, the S & P 500 sold off to close at 2,925.51.  The high came in at 10:20.  If you recall, the high for the day on Monday was at 10:30.

As I said, that timeframe can often be rather important intra day.

From the high to the close, the range was 14.35 points.

And for the day, the S & P 500 closed at 22% of the range of the daily bar.

This puts the odds of violating the low before the high at almost 80%.

And the range for the day was 18.50 points, which was the average.

Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading to the downside almost 12 points.

This would project to an open below yesterday's low of 2,921.36.  It certainly will meet the expectation of the close relationship from yesterday's daily bar.

You would want to monitor yesterday's low on a rally.

And you want to watch the resistance level for last week's weekly bar, which is in the 2,918 area.

Tomorrow we will get the non farm payroll report at 8:30 EST.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX: 
 
Major level: 25.00 
Minor level: 23.44 
Minor level: 20.31 
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94  
Minor level:   7.81
Major level:   6.25

The VIX closed at 11.63.  It continues to trade just under 12.50.

With the pre open weakness, look to see if the VIX takes out 12.50.  If it does, it should continue higher.

As I mentioned, 11.72 is a minor level that would indicate that the VIX should head lower if it closed under for two days.  And yesterday was the first day closing under it.

Minor resistance on the upside should be at 12.89 and 13.28. 

SPX: 

Major level: 2,988.30 
Minor level: 2,976.10
Minor level: 2.951.70
Major level: 2,939.50 
Minor level: 2,927.28 **
Minor level: 2,902.83 
Major level: 2,890.60 
Minor level: 2,878.40 
Minor level: 2,854.00 
Major level: 2,841.80 

The S & P 500 closed under the minor 2,927.28 level again.  A drop to 2,890.60 is possible.  But, watch for support at 2,902.83.

On the upside, watch the minor 2,932.10 level.

On the downside, the minor support level is 2,895.50.

The short term intra day 30 and 60 minute charts still remain bullish.  Technical support is now around 2,909. 

QQQ:  

Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25 
Minor level: 179.69 
Minor level: 176.56 
Major level: 175.00 

The QQQ closed at 185.95. The QQQ closed one cent above the minor 185.94 level.

Support should be at 184.38.  A break under this level and the QQQ should head lower.

Both 30 minute chart and the 60 minute charts are bullish. Technical support is at 184.

IWM:

Minor level: 172.66 
Major level: 171.88 
Minor level: 171.10 
Minor level: 169.53 
Major level: 168.75  
Minor level: 167.97 
Minor level: 166.41 
Major level: 165.63 <
Minor level: 164.85 **
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50

The IWM closed at 165.97.  We got the test of 165.63, as expected and the IWM failed to hold at that level.  

165.63 is a short term support level.  And 164.06 is a level I would not expect the IWM to violate.  If it does, it should head lower.

The IWM is the only index still in downtrends on the 30 and 60 minute charts.  Technical resistance is at 167.

The IWM bounced back from the lower band on the 30 minute.  A retest of the lower band is possible.  The lower band is 165.18.

TLT:  

Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80 
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 115.24
Minor level: 114.45
Major level: 114.06
Minor level: 113.67
Minor level: 112.89
Major level: 112.50

The TLT broke and closed at 114.83.  With a close under the climax day, it should now head lower.

Ultimately, I believe the TLT tests the 112 area.

Two closes under 113.67 and 112.50 should be the objective.

Short term charts remain bearish.  Technical resistance is at 117.  

The TLT is sitting at the bottom band on the 30 minute, which is 114.49.

GLD:  

Major level: 117.19 
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02 
Major level: 115.63 
Minor level: 114.85 
Minor level: 113.28 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16
Major level: 109.38

The GLD closed at 113.42.  112.50 should offer strong support.  But if the GLD breaks under 112.50, it could drop to as low as 100.

Minor resistance should be at 114.06.  

XLE: 

Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35 
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00 
Minor level: 74.22 
Minor level: 72.66  
Major level: 71.88 
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75

The XLE closed at 77.49.  The XLE is within 50 cents of the 78.13 level.

If the XLE can close above 78.13 for two days, it should move up to 87.

Both short term charts are in uptrends.  Technical support is at 75 and 76.56.

FXY:

Minor level: 84.97 
Minor level: 84.58
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 84.18 **
Minor level: 83.79
Major level: 83.59
Minor level: 83.40
Minor level: 83.01
Major level: 82.81

The FXY closed at 83.60.  The FXY closed one cent above the major level.

The FXY is oversold.  On the downside, I do not expect the FXY to break under 82.81.

If it does, expect it to head lower.

85.16 should be resistance now.

Short term charts remain bearish.  Technical resistance is right at 85.

AAPL:
 
Major level: 231.25
Minor level: 229.69
Minor level: 226.56 **
Major level: 225.00 <
Minor level: 223.44
Minor level: 220.31
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50

Apple closed at 232.07.  Apple took out the 231.25 level we were looking for.  

The 237.50 level could offer strong resistance.  If Apple does take it out, expect it to head higher.

Short term charts remain bullish.  Technical support is at 223.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: AMZN, REGN, ALGN, NFLX, BA, FLT, MA, ADBE, EW, ADP, V, ALXN, FANG, PTC, DIS, SQ, ESRX, XLNX, WBA

Bearish Stocks: FDX, GS, MLM, LRCX, WYNN, SMH, KLAC, ALL, ALNY, JACK, PRGO, MNST, KHC, WRK

Be sure to check earnings release dates.