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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (XLE)(RSX)(SPX) October 25, 2016

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Portfolio-2-e1477421059531.jpg 345 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-25 14:49:592016-10-25 14:49:59MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (XLE)(RSX)(SPX) October 25, 2016
DougD

Follow Up to Trade Alert (GLD) - October 25, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Alert

 

Trade Alert - (GLD) - UPDATE

SELL the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) November, 2016 $112-$115 in-the-money vertical bull call spread at $2.90 or best

Closing Trade

10-25-2016

Expiration Date: November 18, 2016

Portfolio Weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 38 contracts

 

I have no doubt that I nailed the recent bottom on the price of gold (GLD) at $118.50.

I am certain that the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) November, 2016 $112-$115 in-the-money vertical bull call spread will expire at its maximum potential value of $3.00.

However, prudent, disciplined risk control dictates that I take profits now.

By cashing in here, I get to realize 73.68% of the maximum potential profit in only ten trading days.

I also get to duck the risk of running the position for 18 more trading days, through the uncertainty of the presidential election.

Notice also that for the last several months, gold has been acting like a bond.

It has been trading in lockstep with other interest-sensitive asset classes like REITs, utilities, telecom stocks and master limited partnerships (MLPs).

And we have just had a very nice two-point rally in the Treasury bond market (TLT).

By closing this position, the six-year track record of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has hit a new all time high FOR A RECORD SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

We are on an absolute tear, and no one ever got fired for taking a profit.

So for all of these reasons, I am taking profits in my long gold position.

That way if bonds and gold decide to take another dump, I can jump back in on the long side with a similar position and seize another 100 basis points.

If you didn?t do the options, sell the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) for a quick trade.

To see how to enter this trade in your online platform, please look at the order ticket below, which I pulled off of optionshouse.

If you are uncertain about how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread

Please keep in mind these are ballpark prices at best. After the text alerts go out, prices can be all over the map. There is no telling how much the market will have moved by the time you get this email.

Be sure you've signed up for our FREE text alert service. When seconds count, this feature offers a trading advantage.? In today's volatile markets, individual investors need every advantage they can get.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you.

The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile across platforms.

Here Are the Specific Trades You Need to Execute This Position:

Sell 38 November, 2016 (GLD) $112 calls at????.?.??$9.15

Buy to cover short 38 November, 2016 (GLD) $115 calls .?..$6.25
Net Proceeds:??????????????????......$2.90

Profit: $2.90 - $2.62 = $0.28

(38 X 100 X $0.28) = $1,064, or 10.68% profit in 10 trading days.

gld

gld-10-25-16
how-much-is-gold-worth

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/how-much-is-gold-worth.jpg 300 350 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-25 13:04:012016-10-25 13:04:01Follow Up to Trade Alert (GLD) - October 25, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (GLD) October 25, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-25 10:36:232016-10-25 10:36:23Trade Alert - (GLD) October 25, 2016
DougD

October 25, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-25 09:27:302016-10-25 09:27:30October 25, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

October 25, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 25, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DON'T MISS THE OCTOBER 26TH LIVE GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(ABOUT FRIDAY?S MASS HACK ATTACK),
(PANW), (FEYE), (HACK), (SNE),
(THE TAX RATE FALLACY)

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)
FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)
PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK)
Sony Corporation (SNE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-25 01:10:112016-10-25 01:10:11October 25, 2016
DougD

About Friday?s Mass Hack Attack

Diary, Newsletter

The distressing emails started coming in on Friday, October 21st like SOS signals from a sinking ship.

First, AWeber went down, stopping me from sending out newsletters and Trade Alerts.

Then Interactive Brokers crashed, making options price updates impossible.

Suddenly, Yahoo Mail wouldn?t take attachments.

Then Twitter went down.

Yikes!

What in the world was going on?

Was this a Soviet hack attack prior to a full scale nuclear strike?

Or was it the END OF THE WORLD?

Cyber security firms were baffled over how quickly and widespread the attack became. Many thought that this was the biggest such attack in Internet history.

I asked one my friends at security giant, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), if it was the Russians again. He replied, ?You better hope it?s the Russians.?

The implication being that the Internet may have launched the attack itself.

What made this attack so damaging was that it was focused on a single company, Manchester, NH based Dyn, one of several companies that host the Domain Name System (DNS), essentially a switchboard for the Internet.

DNS is what allows computers to speak to each other. No DNS, no internet.

The other unusual aspect of this attack is that it was launched from millions of home appliances, like baby monitors, refrigerators and home security systems, instead of unsuspecting home computers.

It was a clever strategy because ?The Internet of Things? has invested far less money in cyber security.

Thus unleashed, these devices bombarded the Dyn website with millions of inquiries, causing it to grind to a halt in what is known as a ?distributed denial of service? (DDoS) attack.

Whether this was a Russian or Chinese attack in response to something the US government has done to them, or a prelude to a disruption of the US presidential election, is anyone?s guess.

The guys upstairs are till trying to figure it all out.

No less figures than Nobel Prize winner Dr. Stephen Hawking and Tesla?s Elon Musk have warned that computers and the Internet may have the power to pose a threat to human existence within a decade.

It all goes to show you how dependent our society has become on strings of ones and zeros lining up correctly, and how fragile that system is.

If the Internet goes down and stays down, millions would starve within months. No kidding!

It all shines a giant spotlight on one of my favorite long-term industries of the future, cyber security. Last week?s attack has just opened up a massive new market for them.

Instead of focusing on mainframes and servers, it now has to look at toasters.

Who?s really reading your email? I bet you?d like to know!

Another day, another hack attack.

There must be a way to make money out of this.

Wait! There is!

Palo Alto Networks is a San Francisco Bay Area cyber security company that offers companies and governments an innovative firewall platform solution for big, network-wide security problems.

In the P&L sweet spot they are.

I know the company well, and have been recommending to my subscribers that they buy the shares for the past year, during which time they tripled.

What? You want me to buy a stock that has just tripled?

Prospects for the firm are booming, with sales growth running at a torrid 30% YOY rate.

Yet, Palo Alto Networks has only 10% market share of an industry that is currently exploding. This is an aggressive, extremely well managed $15 billion company that is about to become a $150 billion company.

Keeping in contact with the Joint Chiefs of Staff on a weekly basis, I am constantly concerned at how serious the cyber security threat has become, yet how little understood it is by the public.

You don?t have to go any further than the management of Sony (SNE), one of the world?s largest multinationals, which was almost wiped out by hackers from one of the poorest and most backward countries in the world.

Upset by the take down of their leader, Kim Jong-un, in a low budget comedy, The Interview, North Korean hackers were able to bring the firm to its knees.

They downloaded the entire contents of Sony?s hard drives, leaking the juicy parts to online journalists (Angelina Jolie?s pay, etc.), and then wiped them clean, destroying some 3,000 computers and 8000 servers.

It was the hacking equivalent of a full-scale nuclear attack.

Sony had to revert to snail mail, couriers, and landline telephone calls to survive. They couldn?t even pay their employees. Some $6 billion in market capitalization was wiped out.

Now here is the scary part.

The FBI has confided in me that if the companies that comprise the S&P 500 were subjected to a Sony level attack, 90% are unlikely to survive. And the Sony attack was actually a primitive, simplistic, low-level attack.

A lot of countries don?t like the United States for any number of reasons. Now they can do something about it. That is a problem. And a market.

Palo Alto Networks maintains the world?s largest database of viruses and malware. That enabled it to trace the Sony attack to the Hermit Kingdom within hours.

It contained several lines of code that were identical to the ?Dark Soul? attack against South Korean banks in 2013 which incinerated 40,000 bank computers and caused $700 million worth of damage.

What the Sony attack revealed was a long history of massive under investment in cyber security by corporations and governments in the US, Europe, and Asia.

The potential future market for cyber security products and services is being wildly underestimated.

The great irony here is that the attack is not against systems, which are usually pretty secure. It is their human users that have become the problem.

Unfortunately, we are have become familiar with ?spoofing? emails where an innocuous email asks the user to ?click here? for an Adobe upgrade, a notice from Yahoo, or a request from PayPal to update your password.

Do so, and you invite lines of code that will eventually make it to your system administrator. Once they have his password, they can access or do anything.

Don?t think only dummies fall for this.

My friend, retired FBI chief Robert Mueller, had his personal account at the Bank of America cleaned out in a similar fashion. What was unusual in his case, they caught the transgressor, after a huge expenditure of bureau resources.

(Hint: if an incoming email appears the slightest bit suspicious, hover your mouse over the sender?s name, and the sending email address will appear. If it looks anything but belt and suspenders safe, don?t open it and mark it as SPAM. Especially watch for the last three letters of the address, which are always a tip off).

The FBI estimates that there are up to 10,000 hackers in the world with the capability of a Sony level attack, many operating from China, Russia, Eastern Europe, or other locations beyond the reach of US extradition treaties.

The global cyber war has been going on for about 15 years now, and the public hears very little of it.

In recent years, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia?s Aramco, destroying 30,000 computers, and briefly shutting down a portion of the country?s oil production.

A major attack was launched against the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas which is owned by promin
ent Israel supporter and major Republican Party contributor, Sheldon Adleson.

There is a happy ending to this piece. You don?t need to place your entire wealth into gold bricks and bury them in the backyard to keep it safe.

If North Korea is a bicycle in the hacking arms race, the US is the F-35 Lightening next generation stealth fighter.

We are winning the cyber war hands down, but you?d never know it. This is a war fought silently, online, and in dark shadows.

President Obama in fact authorized a measured counter attack on North Korea?s information infrastructure, which proved devastating. But it was only a pinprick relative to what we could have done.

Our real cyber weapons are reserved for an actual shooting war sometime in the future. That?s to prevent the enemy from learning our true capabilities and preparing for them.

Imagine a country trying to defend itself with snail mail, couriers, and landline telephone calls from an American assault. Think the Sony attack times 10,000. Nothing would work.

It couldn?t be done.

Congress has so far refused to fund a substantial increase in America?s cyber warfare arsenal, preferring instead to spend money on old heavy metal weapons systems, like aircraft carriers, tanks, and the above mentioned F-35.

It?s all about sucking money out of Washington to create local jobs in red states to win elections. A stepped-up cyber program would focus money almost entirely on Silicon Valley.

Don?t want to do that!

This is how General George Armstrong Custer was sent to the Battle of the Little Big Horn with antiquated 16-year-old Civil War trapdoor Springfield carbines while the Sioux had state of the art Winchester ?yellow boy? repeaters.

And we know how that one turned out!

But don?t get mad. Get even. Take another look at Palo Alto Networks, FireEye (FEYE), and the Pure Funds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK).

panw feye hack aweber-unscheduled-interruption-october-21-2016
ddos-attack-map

DDoS Attack Hotspots

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/DDos-Attack-Map-e1477366974484.jpg 199 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-25 01:07:302016-10-25 01:07:30About Friday?s Mass Hack Attack
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Tax Rate Fallacy

Diary, Newsletter

When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them.

This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you.

According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the top 400 of the 144 million individual tax returns filed in 2012 reported an average gross income of $134 million each. The total adjusted gross income for the top 400 was $10.1 billion.

? The total tax paid by these individuals came to $22.5 million, which works 0.20%. This is an infinitesimal amount compared to the 39.6% paid by the rest of us, and 43.4% when you count the Obamacare add on for high earners (click here for the 2015 tax tables at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040tt.pdf
?
This explains why Warren Buffet pays a much lower tax rate than his secretary. It really is true that in America, only the poor people pay taxes.

Look at any international comparison of taxes to GDP, and one can always find the United States at the bottom of the table. Low American taxes are one of the main reasons why I moved my company here from England 20 years ago.

Take a look at the Fortune 500, where one third of the largest companies pay no tax at all, and many that dominate the top of the list, like the oil majors and technology companies, pay only token amounts.?

However, if any politician wants to pander to voters during election time on a tax-cutting platform he will only bluster on about ?high tax rates?, not actual taxes paid.

What the US has that other countries lack is the 73,000 pages of the Internal Revenue Code. It is a 100-year accumulation of deductions, accelerated depreciation rates, tax credits, and other tax breaks that are the end product of intensive lobbying efforts and bribes by special interest groups, corporations, unions, and even religious groups.

If you do have a big tax bill, you need to hire a new accountant.

Take a look at the oil industry again. The oil depletion allowance permits drillers to deduct a substantial portion of the cost of a new well in the first year. When I first got into the oil and gas business 15 years ago, after reading the relevant sections of the tax code, I couldn't understand why everyone wasn't drilling for Texas tea.

The total value of this one tax break to the industry is estimated at $55 billion a year. This explains why we have had three presidents from Texas in the last 50 years. Some of this money ends up in campaign donations.

I have a very simple solution to the country's budget deficit problem. Hit the reset button. Eliminate the Internal Revenue Code. Just set it on fire or send it to the recycling bin. Keep the existing progressive, hockey stick tax rates on income, but eliminate all deductions.

And I mean everything: deductions for dependents, home mortgage interest, medical expenses, charitable contributions, the works. The oil depletion allowance and other corporate loopholes are worth at least $150 billion a year in lost federal revenues. There are no sacred cows.

My revised Form 1040 would be much like the original 1913 return, a postcard that would have only five lines on it:

Name
Social Security number
Income
Tax Rate
Tax Due

The budget deficit would disappear overnight. Government spending would shrink dramatically, because you could ditch most of the 100,000 who work for the IRS. Some 1.3 million auditors, CPAs, tax attorneys, and bookkeepers would have to hit the road in search of new work too.

The amount of money that is wasted on tax collection in this country is truly staggering. This is not some pie in the sky concept. This is how taxation already works in most countries, and they seem to get along just fine.

In fact, the whole scheme might even pay for itself.

irsI Don't See Any Jobs For Former IRS Agents, Do You?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/irs.jpg 320 213 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-25 01:06:252016-10-25 01:06:25The Tax Rate Fallacy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (USO) October 24, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-24 13:13:412016-10-24 13:13:41Trade Alert - (USO) October 24, 2016
DougD

October 24, 2016 - MDT Alert (KR)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-24 13:00:102016-10-24 13:00:10October 24, 2016 - MDT Alert (KR)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (SPX) October 24, 2016

MOT Trades

While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/SPX-6-e1477410432830.jpg 282 580 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-24 11:57:052016-10-24 11:57:05MOT Follow-Up to Text Alert - (SPX) October 24, 2016
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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