?With slowing growth in the US and no growth in Europe, you are going to have to shave a few percentage points off of growth in China. If you look at the chessboard as a retail investor, we have a year or more in a sideways to down stock market,? said Dr. Peter Navarro, a professor at the University of California at Irvine School of business.
?They got us into this mess, they?ve gotten great credit for getting out of this mess, and now they are creating even a bigger mess,? said the former chairman of Morgan Stanley International and a colleague of mine, Steve Roach.
?The US has repositioned itself better than any of its global competitors. Americans are doing what they do best. They?re adapting, they?re moving, they?re finding good, and they?re surviving. That?s where we need to be,? said Tom Barrack, CEO of Colony Capital, and a former principal of the Bass Group.
?The biggest tumor that we are now facing for the economy is the shadow inventory of housing. We now have six million units that are delinquent, in default, or foreclosed, and 15 million other units for sale. Demographic demand can only soak up one million units a year. It is the biggest dilemma for homeowners,? said Tom Barrack, CEO of Colony Capital, and a former principal of the Bass Group.
?Real estate is always the drunk driver of the economy. Usually the problem is oversupply. This time it was an oversupply of debt,? said Tom Barrack, CEO of Colony Capital, and a former principal of the Bass Group.
?The generals are still there, but the soldiers are leaving the field,? said Tom Dorsey of Dorsey Wright Associates, a technical analysis research firm, about the current level of stock indexes.
?If you add up all the stimulus that expires at the end of the year, like the Bush tax cuts, the jobs bill, and so on, it adds up to 4% of GDP. It?s a major factor that no one is focusing on?.yet,? said Larry Kantor, chief strategist of Barclays Capital.
?The VIX right here is unsustainably low. I think China has more of a downside surprise. Analyst expectations for earnings are overly aggressive. There are just a few too many things that can go wrong out there,? said Vadim Zlotnikov, chief market strategist at Alliance Bernstein.
?People that have complete disdain for government intervention in the economy and markets of the West have complete faith in nine guys in a room being able to figure out the very complex and rapidly growing Chinese economy,? said hedge fund manager Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates, about foreign investors? unlimited faith in the Middle Kingdom?s politburo
My problem with the stock market is that I fail to see who the incremental buyer will be to take the S&P 500 to 1,500. It?s not going to be the retail investor who has been hit with a 34% drop in home prices, two market crashes in the last decade, and a flash crash while their incomes are not keeping up with inflation. The last thing on their minds right now is to buy stocks,? said Doug Kass of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners.
